Week 4 SEC Primer: Auburn-Oklahoma sets the tone for 2 coaches (and 1 QB) squarely on the hot seat

Everything you need to know about the Week 4 SEC slate, all in one place. Point spreads are via ESPNBet Sportsbook. A bold • denotes Matt Hinton’s pick ATS.

Game of the Week: Auburn at Oklahoma (-6.5)

The stakes: Who gets to keep their job? The conference opener is always a tone-setter for the rest of the season, but in this case the tone is a bell tolling for the losing coach.

Hugh Freeze and Brent Venables share more than just the hot seat. After presiding over losing records in 2024 — including identical 2-6 finishes in the SEC standings — both coaches found themselves facing steep schedules in ’25 with rosters that rank a notch or two below the league’s elite and rapidly shrinking margins for error. Responding to dismal returns on offense, both staked their future on a wild-card quarterback transfer with intriguing selling points and just as many question marks.

Heisman favorite John Mateer arrived at Oklahoma last winter fresh off a prolific but obscure campaign at Washington State, where he put up eye-opening numbers against mostly marginal competition. Venables bet the farm on Mateer and his former Wazzu offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle-, and got out of the way. The guy Mateer replaced in Norman, Jackson Arnold, entered the portal from the opposite direction — a bust by any measure as OU’s starter, but still a 5-star talent whose best performance by far in 2024 spoiled Alabama’s Playoff push in late November. Who better for Freeze to ride or die with in a do-or-die year than a dual-threat with a verified ambush of Bama?

From the moment he landed at Auburn, this date was destined to be billed as the Jackson Arnold Grudge Match, whether Arnold actually feels that way about it or not. (For now, he says not. If Auburn wins in the stadium where he was unceremoniously benched exactly 1 year ago, I’d bet by Saturday evening he’ll be saying something else.) Beyond the personal stakes, though, both sides have a lot riding on getting off on the right foot in conference play. The winners will emerge 4-0, with Playoff hopes intact and a significant cushion against the negativity that quickly descended on both programs last year. The losers will be on their heels with a difficult schedule looming — a brutal schedule, in Oklahoma’s case — and the murmur of torches and pitchforks in the distance. It’s a long year, but the team that starts off in the wrong direction risks finding it very difficult to reverse course.

The stat: 17.1%

That’s the 3rd-down conversion rate of opposing offenses against Oklahoma’s defense, the lowest rate in the SEC and 4th-best nationally. The Sooners have allowed just 7 conversions on 41 attempts, including holding Michigan to 3-for-14 on 3rd down in their Week 2 win over the Wolverines.

In fact, for all the attention on Oklahoma’s revamped offense, the defense is off to a dominant start across the board. Through 3 weeks, the Sooners also lead the SEC in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense, pass efficiency defense, yards per play allowed, available yards allowed and red-zone defense, having yet to allow a touchdown on 3 red-zone opportunities. (So far, the only touchdown OU has allowed in any context was the 75-yard run by Michigan’s Justice Haynes on the first play of the second half.) The only column they haven’t dominated: Takeaways. Unusually for a Brent Venables unit, Oklahoma is the only SEC defense that has yet to record a turnover.

The big question: Does Oklahoma have a functional offensive line?

This time last year, the Sooners made the trip to Auburn with a single healthy wide receiver remaining from the preseason 2-deep. This year, the plague has struck the o-line.

The opening-day starter at center, 5th-year senior Troy Everett, is out for the season with a knee injury. His backup, Stanford transfer Jake Maikkula, is listed as “questionable.” The opening-day starter at left tackle, senior Jacob Sexton, has missed the past 2 games and remains out indefinitely; his backup, true freshman Michael Fasusi, is listed as questionable (ankle) after sitting out last week’s trip to Temple. Senior guard Febechi Nwaiwu, the most experienced OL on the roster and the only one who has started all three games, is questionable. Third-string center Owen Hollenbeck, a true freshman in line for his first career start in place of Maikkula, is banged up himself (listed as probable). Veteran tackle Jake Taylor is out indefinitely.

The upshot: All 5 stations could be manned on Saturday by a different starter than in the opener, a remarkable rate of attrition in just a few weeks. Despite an abundance of experienced options coming into the season, the starting 5 could plausibly feature 3 true freshmen: Fasusi at left tackle, Hollenbeck at center (pending the status of Maikkula), and Ryan Fodje at right guard (pending the status of Nwaiwu). The initial outlook this week was optimistic for Fasusi, a 5-star rated as the No. 1 incoming tackle in the 2025 class. He’ll be a fixture on the blind side soon enough. But for now, opposite Keldric Faulk and the rest of a fully stocked Auburn d-line, that is where the optimism ends.

The key matchup: Auburn WR Cam Coleman vs. Oklahoma CB Courtland Guillory

Coleman, one of the most coveted recruits at Auburn in the online rankings era, needs no introduction after breaking out late last year as a freshman. If he’s off to a relatively quiet start in Year 2 (10 catches for 149 yards over the first 3 games), it’s only because the Tigers haven’t been in the market for downfield fireworks in games they’ve largely controlled in the trenches. When they have dialed Coleman’s number, he’s answered, including a 32-yard touchdown in last week’s win over South Alabama with a defender’s hand literally in his face.

With last year’s bout of the dropsies apparently behind him, the only question about Coleman is whether he’s being targeted enough. And with fellow wideout Eric Singleton Jr. nursing a hip pointer, this is the weekend that question figures to be answered early and often.

Guillory, a true freshman rated in the bottom half of Oklahoma’s incoming class, is an unknown by comparison. But maybe not for long. Three games into his OU career, he’s already on the breakout track, replacing injured sophomore Eli Bowen in the starting lineup with no apparent drop-off. Per PFF, 10 attempts in Guillory’s direction this season have yielded just two receptions for 12 yards; against Michigan, he shut out the Wolverines’ top wideout, Donaven McCulley, holding him without a catch on four head-to-head targets. Coleman is a significant step up in degree of difficulty, but based on the early returns Guillory is prepared to give as good as he gets.

The verdict …

It would be nice to know before venturing a pick exactly how many teenage o-linemen are going to be standing between John Mateer and Auburn’s defensive front. But Mateer himself has all the makings of a star. He looked the part in Oklahoma’s Week 2 win over Michigan — that is, like Sooner fans expected Jackson Arnold to look in the same role last year — and is currently accounting for nearly 80% of the team’s total offense as a rusher and passer. The real wild card is Arnold. He impressed with his mobility in Auburn’s Week 1 win at Baylor, and hasn’t set off any alarms in subsequent wins over Ball State and South Alabama. Beating his old team would be a milestone in what could still wind up being a long and productive career. Either way, we’re going to find out exactly how far along he is on that journey.

Prediction: • Oklahoma 28, Auburn 19

Florida at Miami (-9.5)

The Gators are in panic mode over DJ Lagway‘s 5-interception meltdown at LSU, as they should be. In a game the defense did everything it could to give Florida a chance to win, Lagway suddenly looked like a guy on the fast track to Bust City. If he reaches his destination, Billy Napier is toast. The open date on the other side of the trip to Miami already feels ominous.

But the other quarterback in this game, former Georgia QB Carson Beck, has experience singing the INT Blues, too. The last time he faced Florida, he memorably served up 3 interceptions in a game almost no one though would be close, giving the Gators life even after Lagway exited the game in the first half due to injury; Georgia didn’t pull away in the Cocktail Party until late, tacking 2 touchdowns in the final 5 minutes to win 34-20. That was part of an alarming midseason stretch in which Beck was picked a dozen times in a span of 5 games, including losses at Alabama and Ole Miss. He got the giveaways under control down the stretch, but the offense never really found its rhythm again. You can point to many reasons Beck ultimately portaled out of Athens, but in retrospect, the seeds were planted in the Cocktail Party.

Of course, that was last year. This year, Beck is off to a sizzling start as a ‘Cane, with a pair of ranked wins already under his belt over Notre Dame and South Florida — the same South Florida that sent the Gators into their latest tailspin on a walk-off field goal in Week 2. Miami annihilated the Bulls in Week 3, 49-12, with Beck throwing for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns (and, yes, 2 interceptions, his first of the year). Florida’s defense isn’t nearly that flammable, but if Lagway can’t get his worst tendencies under control, it won’t matter.

Prediction: • Miami 30, Florida 17

South Carolina at Missouri (-9.5)

South Carolina upgraded LaNorris Sellers‘ status on Thursday to “probable,” clearing the way for him to play after he was knocked out of last week’s 31-7 loss to Vanderbilt with an apparent concussion. The Gamecocks didn’t score again after Sellers’ exit against Vandy, and it was difficult to see how they were going to manage at Mizzou with Sellers on ice. Assuming he’s back to looking more or less like his usual self, Sellers gives them a chance in the Mayor’s Cup. The update to his status immediately knocked a point off the spread.

Now, the question is how Carolina will hold up against a surging Missouri ground game. The Tigers have finished with multiple 100-yard rushers in each of their past 2 games, with 3 different backs — Ahmad Hardy, Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis — sharing the honors. Hardy, a sophomore transfer from UL-Monroe, has exceeded very high offseason expectations, piling up 462 yards and 5 touchdowns on 8.1 yards per carry over the first 3 games; the lion’s share of that total came last week in a 250-yard bonanza against Louisiana, the only individual 200-yard rushing by an FBS back so far this season. South Carolina, obviously, represents a stiffer challenge than the Ragin’ Cajuns. But between Hardy, QB Beau Pribula and WR Kevin Coleman Jr., Mizzou’s big-ticket portal additions are already paying off in spades.

Prediction: • Missouri 31, South Carolina 20

Tulane at Ole Miss (-13.5)

Somebody’s got to claim the automatic Playoff slot reserved for the Group of 5. Why not the Green Wave?

The ticket is wide open for the taking. Following USF’s wipeout loss at Miami, only 6 unbeaten teams remain in the G5 ranks, 4 of them from the American Athletic Conference. Out of that group, the clear frontrunners are the usual suspects, Tulane and Memphis, both of which face their stiffest tests of the season this weekend against SEC opponents. (Crucially, they’ll also face off in Memphis on Nov. 7, and potentially again in the AAC Championship Game.) The Wave made a statement in Week 3 in a 34-27 win over Duke, which paid an exorbitant sum to make Tulane’s starting quarterback in 2024, Darian Mensah, a Blue Devil in ’25. That investment did not pay off against his former team.

An upset in Oxford would secure Tulane’s status as a CFP contender with a bullet; if that’s too much to ask, a competitive outing will suffice to keep them in the mix.

Prediction: Ole Miss 35, • Tulane 23

Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis

Arkansas’ 41-35 loss at Ole Miss in Week 3 felt like a preview of the rest of the Hogs’ season: A gonzo statistical effort by quarterback Taylen Green, signifying nothing opposite a flammable Razorbacks defense. Eight of Arkansas’ 9 offensive possessions in Oxford ended inside the Ole Miss 35-yard line, resulting in 5 touchdowns,2 missed field goals (equaling the final margin in a 6-point loss), and a killer fumble to end the night. For his part, Green accounted for 305 yards passing, 115 more on the ground, 2 touchdowns, and a 96.0 QBR rating, best among SEC starters in Week 3. According to ESPN’s Win Probability metric, the Razorbacks’ chances peaked just before halftime at 37.5%.

It’s just going to be that kind of year. Through 3 weeks, Green ranks No. 1 or No. 2 nationally in total offense, total touchdowns, Total QBR and EPA, as well as rushing yards by a quarterback. Even at that pace, though, at this point the best the Hogs can hope for is that it’s enough juice to put them on the right side of enough shootouts to eke out a trip to a bowl game — likely with an interim head coach at the helm.

Prediction: • Arkansas 36, Memphis 24

UAB at Tennessee (-38.5)

Fewer championship-winning quarterbacks go on to become successful coaches than you might assume. This game features two exceptions: Tennessee’s Josh Heupel is 1 of only 2 active head coaches (along with UCF’s Scott Frost) whose résumé includes a national championship as a starting quarterback, and UAB’s Trent Dilfer is the only active head coach who has even taken a snap in a Super Bowl. In fact, Heupel and Dilfer won their respective rings in the same month, January 2001, in championship games hosted by the same state: Florida, which was also then at the center of a national imbroglio over hanging chads. If you’re too young to get that reference, might I recommend some light garbage time reading that I guarantee will be more enlightening than anything happening in Neyland Stadium.

Prediction: • Tennessee 52, UAB 10

Sam Houston at Texas (-39.5)

Texas would like to put the Arch Manning Discourse to bed (or at least down for a nap) heading into an open date in Week 5. One way to accomplish that would be to defy the haters, let Arch cook against an outmanned opponent, and hold your breath he doesn’t set off the smoke alarms for the second week in a row. Another would be to put him in oven mitts and call 55 handoffs in an effort to limit the potential for scrutiny for the next couple weeks. Or they could just, like, run a normal game plan that balances run and pass as usual and doesn’t acknowledge outside expectations at all. But where is the narrative potential in that?

Prediction: Texas 41, • Sam Houston 7

Georgia State at Vanderbilt (-27.5)

Georgia State dealt Vandy its only nonconference loss in 2024, a wild, 36-32 decision featuring 5 4th-quarter touchdowns and 2 lead changes in the final minute-and-a-half. At that point, the Commodores were still at the beginning of their ascent from the basement, and losing to a rando outfit from the Sun Belt merely set them back a step or two before they finally barged their way into the kitchen a few weeks later against Alabama. A year later, the ‘Dores are ranked, coming off back-to-back blowouts over Virginia Tech and South Carolina, and looking forward to a Week 6 rematch at Bama with actual stakes. If they’re not 5-0 going into Tuscaloosa, this time it will be a sincere disappointment.

Prediction: Vanderbilt 34, • Georgia State 13

Northern Illinois at Mississippi State (-21.5)

When the Bulldogs put Northern Illinois on the schedule, they were signing up for an easy win over a nondescript MAC doormat. Lately, though, NIU hasn’t made anything easy: Dating back to last season, the Huskies’ past 14 games have all been decided by 14 points or less, with their largest margin of defeat in that span coming by just 11 points. That run includes their historic, 16-14 win at Notre Dame last September; a competitive, 24-17 loss at NC State a few weeks later; a 20-9 loss at Maryland in Week 2 of this year; and 4 others games in the meantime decided by 3 points or less or in overtime. Mississippi State, still basking in its dramatic Week 2 upset over Arizona State, is feeling pretty good about itself and its prospects for bowl eligibility as it wraps up the nonconference slate. But before they take 4-0 for granted, the Bulldogs had better strap in for a 4-quarter fight.

Prediction: Mississippi State 31, • Northern Illinois 14

SE Louisiana at LSU (n/a)

LSU’s wins over Clemson and Florida were arguably its 2 best defensive performances since the pandemic. Now the problem is the offense. Not that hanging a fat number on an FCS patsy will solve any of the Tigers’ problems, but if Brian Kelly can get through a postgame press conference without feeling compelled to challenge a reporter to step inside the octagon, he’ll take it.

Prediction: LSU 48, SE Louisiana 3

Scoreboard

Week 3 record: 10-2 straight-up | 6-5 vs. spread
Season record: 35-8 straight-up | 19-20 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.