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Notre Dame and Penn State are set to battle in the College Football Playoff semifinals Thursday night at the Orange Bowl.
In a different era, these teams were rivals. They met every season from 1981-92 when Penn State was an independent. Now, these old foes will face off with a spot in the national championship game on the line. Notre Dame is a slight favorite over Penn State, per the latest betting odds.
Here’s a full betting breakdown for Notre Dame vs. Penn State in the College Football Playoff:
Notre Dame vs. Penn State betting odds
Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:
Spread: Notre Dame -1.5 (-108) | Penn State +1.5 (-112)
Total: Over 45.5 points (-105) | Under 45.5 points (-115)
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GET THE APPWhen Notre Dame has the ball
Notre Dame’s offense has been good, but the Fighting Irish do have some significant questions to answer as they battle Penn State in the semifinals.
Despite a multi-score win over Georgia in the quarterfinals, Notre Dame’s offense was underwhelming to say the least. The Irish only averaged 4 yards per play in the win and went just 4-of-14 on 3rd down.
Perhaps most concerning was Notre Dame’s inability to pass the ball. Riley Leonard threw for just 90 yards on 24 pass attempts as he posted his 3rd-worst passer efficiency rating in a single game this season (ahead of only the first 2 contests of the season).
The health of Jeremiyah Love is also worth noting ahead of this game. Love, who is perhaps Notre Dame’s best offensive player, re-aggravated his knee injury in the win over Georgia. Love averaged 0.21 EPA per rush this season, which places him amongst the most efficient running backs in the country for 2024-25. Marcus Freeman told reporters on Wednesday that Love will be “good to go” vs. Penn State, but indicated he might not be 100% healthy.
While Leonard’s inconsistencies are certainly notable, Notre Dame’s running game will be a much bigger determining factor in how the Irish move the ball on Thursday night. Notre Dame runs the ball almost 50% of the time and owns a 63% rush rate on 1st down, which is the highest percentage of any of the 4 semifinalists.
In theory, that should be a good matchup for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are ranked No. 6 nationally in EPA-per-rush allowed entering this game, according to Game on Paper. However, Penn State was not untouchable in the run game this season. USC averaged 8.4 yards per carry, adjusted for sack yardage. Four other teams (Ohio State, Maryland, Bowling Green and UCLA) all cleared the 4.5-yard threshold as well.
In 2 Playoff games, Penn State held SMU and Boise State to 2.8 and 3.6 rushing yards per carry, respectively. Those were considered to be impressive performances by Penn State, but Notre Dame’s offensive line figures to provide a much bigger challenge than the Mustangs and Broncos were able to muster.
If Notre Dame does go to the passing game a little bit more — as it did early in the win over Indiana — Penn State should be equipped there. Oregon and Ohio State were the only teams that posted above-average passer efficiency marks against the Nittany Lions this season.
When Penn State has the ball
Penn State arguably has the most talented quarterback remaining in the field in Drew Allar, although he has not been very productive against top competition.
In his career, Allar has played 9 games against AP ranked opposition. His quarterback efficiency rating in those contests is just 116.2. For context, the average quarterback rating against ranked teams over the past 2 seasons is 123.6, according to Radar360 — making Allar slightly below average in this spot.
Allar’s peripherals support him being the best quarterback remaining in the field, regardless of his struggles against elite teams. According to Pro Football Focus, he has a big-time throw rate over 5% and a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.6%. His average depth of target is also an impressive 9.3 yards. No other quarterback in the country hit all 3 of those benchmarks this season.
John Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren is the big name to know in Penn State’s offense. Warren, a versatile 6-6, 260-pound tight end, was responsible for 35% of all Penn State receptions this season. That’s a historic usage rate for a tight end in the passing game. To find a power-conference tight end with a bigger share of team receptions, you’d have to go back to 2007 with Wisconsin’s Travis Beckum.
For what it’s worth, Notre Dame did a good job of taking away the tight end this year. Purdue’s Max Klare had the best receiving yardage total with just 36 yards of any opposing TE the Irish faced this season. Virginia’s Tyler Neville had the most receptions with 4. But stopping Warren will obviously require a different level of attention from the Fighting Irish.
Warren is likely to face a lot of man coverage — that’s predominantly what the Irish have run this season. Per PFF, the 5 players with the highest percentage of man coverage snaps in the country this season all play for the Irish. Warren had more receptions (31) against man coverage than any other tight end in the country in 2024-25. He also caught almost 70% of this targets vs. man coverage, which is the highest mark of any TE in the nation (min. 10 targets).
If you’re looking for another potential breakout candidate in the Penn State passing game, Harrison Wallace is the likely answer. Wallace has been excellent against man coverage this season, albeit on a sample size of just 21 targets. He has caught 17 of those passes for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s been much less effective against zone this season, so he could be in position for a better-than-average game.
The key for Penn State’s passing game will be avoiding obvious passing situations on 3rd and 4th down as much as possible. Notre Dame’s pass defense has an efficiency rating of 80.3 on 3rd and 4th down this season. That ranks 2nd nationally behind only FIU on the year.
In the running game, Penn State is led by the dynamic duo of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Singleton has been the more efficient player overall this season, but Allen has a slightly higher usage rate. Penn State does run the ball over 50% of the time, so Singleton and Allen’s production will have an outsized impact on Penn State’s offense in this game.
Notre Dame’s rush defense is solid, but far from elite. The Irish rank 46th in EPA-per-rush allowed this season, according to Game on Paper. However, it’s worth noting that a lot of the Irish’s worst performances against the run this season came in blowout wins over teams like Miami Ohio, Navy, Virginia and Florida State. In the Playoff so far, Notre Dame has held Indiana and Georgia to under 4.1 yards per carry in both games (adjusted for sacks).
Betting the spread in Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Notre Dame is a small favorite over Penn State per the latest betting odds. If you like Notre Dame -1, the best price comes from Caesars at -110. If you’re looking to back the Nittany Lions, your best option is DraftKings or FanDuel. Both of those books are offering Penn State +1.5 at -112 juice.
It’s hard to trust Penn State as an underdog (7-25 straight up under James Franklin) or Allar, given what we’ve seen from him against top competition. I think Notre Dame might be a bit overrated coming off its win over Georgia, but I just don’t see enough matchup advantages to back the Nittany Lions. I think Notre Dame has the more talented roster and the better coaching staff. The favorite (at closing line) has covered every game in this CFP so far. Give me Notre Dame to continue that trend.
PICK: Notre Dame -1 (-110 via Caesars)
How to bet the total in Notre Dame vs. Penn State
If you like the over here, the best number comes from bet365 at 45 points with -110 juice. If you prefer the under, Caesars and BetMGM both have the total at 45.5 with the under priced at -110.
Notre Dame’s defense and special teams essentially created 14 points against Georgia, and that game still didn’t get anywhere near the total. I don’t think Penn State’s offense has the firepower to put up a big number on the Irish. If Notre Dame has a lead in the 2nd half, it will aggressively try to run out the clock as it did against the Bulldogs. I think there are a lot more outcomes where the under hits in this game.
PICK: Under 45.5 points (-110 via BetMGM)
Prop bet pick in Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Harrison Wallace over 3.5 receptions (+126 via FanDuel). As we broke down earlier, Wallace has been extremely efficient against man coverage this season. Wallace has hit this number in 4 of his past 6 games. I expect Notre Dame to take away Tyler Warren as much as possible, which might leave it vulnerable to Wallace on the outside. Penn State might also be forced to throw the ball more often in this game, given that Notre Dame is a favorite per the betting odds. FanDuel also has Wallace at +300 to score a touchdown on Thursday night.
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Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
