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Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman and Ohio State coach Ryan Day talk before a game in 2023.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame preview: Odds, picks and best bets

Spenser Davis

By Spenser Davis

Published:


Ohio State and Notre Dame will face off in the National Championship Game on Monday night in Atlanta. 

Both of these storied programs will be looking to end title droughts — of varying lengths, of course. The Buckeyes haven’t won it all since the 2014 season while the Irish are looking for their first championship since 1988. 

Ohio State got here through brute force. The Buckeyes blew past Tennessee, Oregon and Texas to get to the title game, earning double-digit victories over each of them. Notre Dame’s path wasn’t as pretty, but its wins over Indiana, Georgia and Penn State are no-less impressive. 

Here’s a full betting breakdown for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame in the national title game:

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame betting odds

Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings

Spread: Ohio State -8.5 (-110) | Notre Dame +8.5 (-110)

Total: Over 45.5 points (-110) | Under 45.5 points (-110)


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When Ohio State has the ball

Ohio State has transformed its offense during the College Football Playoff. After struggling offensively (by its lofty standards) for much of November, the Buckeyes have averaged a stunning 7.54 yards per play during the CFP. That’s significantly more than the 2nd-most (Clemson with 6.15 yards per play) during these Playoff games. It’s also well over Ohio State’s season average vs. Big Ten Opponents (6.4 yards per play) despite the step up in competition. 

Since the Playoff began, Ohio State’s offense has been more aggressive, more sophisticated and more efficient. This shows up in the data when you examine Will Howard’s profile. During the regular season, about 10.5% of Howard’s passes traveled 20+ yards through the air, according to Pro Football Focus. In Ohio State’s first 2 CFP games, that rate rose to an eye-popping 16.4%. And Howard was exceptional on those attempts — he completed 8-of-9 for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns. 

A lot of that production went to Jeremiah Smith. The wunderkind receiver totaled 290 yards across those 2 games, good for the 4th-most all-time in a single CFP. 

Things looked a little bit different during the Texas game, though. Smith caught just 1 pass for 3 yards as the Longhorns focused on shutting him down. Howard’s rate of 20+ yard pass attempts also fell to just over 6%. He went 0-for-2 on such attempts vs. the Longhorns. Of course, Ohio State was still able to adapt and Howard was still extremely productive against UT in the Cotton Bowl. He completed almost 73% of his passes and averaged just under 9 yards per attempt. 

That level of flexibility should be concerning for a Notre Dame defense that hasn’t faced anywhere near this much firepower this season. It’s especially worrisome considering Notre Dame’s tendencies. Of the 10 players (min. 200 snaps) who played the highest percentage of man coverage defense this season in the entire country, 8 play for Notre Dame. The Irish love to go man-to-man and expect to win. That’s been their proven formula all season. 

Will the Irish stick with that plan against Ohio State’s vaunted trio of Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate? Only time will tell. But regardless, whether Notre Dame can slow down Ohio State’s passing attack will go a long way toward deciding the winner. 

By all metrics, Notre Dame has an elite secondary. Cornerbacks Christian Gray and Leonard Moore have been largely outstanding and safety Xavier Watts is one of the best defensive backs in the country. Watts has 13 interceptions over the past 2 seasons. He leads a Notre Dame unit that ranks No. 1 nationally in pass defense efficiency rating in 2024-25. 

As for Ohio State’s rushing attack, that hasn’t been a strength of its profile this season. The Buckeyes are 25th in success rate nationally this year despite having 2 elite running backs in TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. We’ve seen Ohio State’s running game disappear in key spots, too, especially as it dealt with key offensive line injuries. Most notably, OSU averaged just 2.1 yards per carry against Nebraska and 3 yards per rush against Michigan. 

Still, this running game has the ability to impact games at a very high level. We saw that in the first 2 postseason games when they averaged well over 7 yards per carry against Oregon and Tennessee. Texas slowed down Ohio State’s rushing offense, but Henderson still found a way to make an impact with a 75-yard touchdown catch on a screen pass. That will be something to watch if Notre Dame is able to slow down Ohio State’s traditional run game. 

It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has struggled to defend the run this season. It’s by far the weakest part of its statistical profile. The Irish rank 90th in defensive rushing success rate, per Game on Paper. Notre Dame has been particularly bad in short-yardage situations. Per Radar360, when Notre Dame’s opponents run the ball on 3rd or 4th down with 3 or fewer yards to go, they’ve reached the first down marker on 28-of-56 tries. 

When Notre Dame has the ball

Notre Dame’s offense has been solid all season despite a lackluster passing attack and numerous offensive line injuries. The offense is built on a strong and diverse running game and some timely passes from Riley Leonard. 

First, let’s start with Notre Dame’s injury situation. Charles Jagusah is expected to start at left tackle for the Irish after Anthonie Knapp went down with an injury against Penn State. Jagusah had been playing right guard, but he was initially thought to be the Irish’s starting left tackle for the 2024 season before he tore his pec in fall camp. Elsewhere on the O-Line, Rocco Spindler is set to slot back into right guard, but he’s not 100% healthy. At the skill positions, Jeremiyah Love has been playing hurt for a few weeks now. At his best, he’s as good as anyone in the country. Even when he’s compromised, he’s been spectacular at times during the CFP. 

However, there are legitimate reasons to be concerned about this Notre Dame rushing attack. Notre Dame running backs averaged 6.85 yards per carry during the regular season, which ranked 2nd nationally behind only Boise State’s. But as the injuries have mounted and the competition level has increased, Notre Dame’s rushing average across 3 Playoff games has plummeted to just 4.9 yards. A situation where this problem has been at its most obvious: 2nd-and medium-to-long. On 2nd-and-6 or more during the regular season, Notre Dame led the country with a rushing average of 8.65 yards. During the Playoff, that average is just 3.25. 

The issue here is that Notre Dame is not a great team on 3rd down — particularly when it has to throw the ball. The Irish attempted a pass on 104 3rd-downs this season and reached the sticks just 36 times. That conversion rate ranks 77th nationally — below Iowa! It gets even worse when Notre Dame is facing 3rd-and-6 or more. The Irish have just 8 passing conversions on 54 attempts this season. 

Here’s where this matchup could get particularly problematic for Notre Dame: Ohio State’s pass rush is elite. The Buckeyes have amassed 16 sacks so far during 3 CFP games, which easily leads all other teams. JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have combined for 10 of those. If Ohio State can get Notre Dame off schedule, there’s little evidence to suggest that Notre Dame will be able to deal with that. The Irish already have allowed 8 sacks in 3 Playoff games.

Given all of that, Notre Dame’s best option to generate offense on key downs might be Riley Leonard’s legs. Leonard has rushed for 958 yards (excluding sacks so far this season) at an average of 6.4 yards per attempt. That’s exceptionally efficient for a quarterback — or anyone for that matter. He’s also posted double-digit rushing attempts in each of Notre Dame’s last 4 games, so I’d expect that to be part of Notre Dame’s game plan for this contest as well. 

Excluding sacks, Ohio State has allowed quarterbacks to run for 520 yards this season at 5.2 yards a pop. Only 12 of those 100 rush attempts went for more than 10 yards. Simply put, Leonard will likely need to out-perform those rushing numbers in order for Notre Dame to have a chance to win this game. 

Betting the spread in Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

This number is at Ohio State -8.5 almost across the board. If you like the Buckeyes, you can get them at -110 juice with virtually any sports betting app. Over at ESPN BET, bettors can take Notre Dame +9 at -110 juice.  

It’s worth noting that Notre Dame has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games and is 12-2-1 against the number this season. Marcus Freeman has delivered a cover rate of 70% overall and 79% as an underdog in his 3 years as head coach. The market has consistently underrated this Notre Dame team during the Freeman era, and particularly this season. But given Notre Dame’s lack of answers on offense, I don’t feel good about backing that trend to continue. I also have some questions about how Notre Dame’s man coverage scheme will handle Ohio State’s vaunted wide receiver trio. I think the Buckeyes cover the 8.5.

PICK: Ohio State -8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Betting the total in Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

This number is at 45.5 points across the board. If you like the over, the best price comes from Caesars at -105.

I think this total is too low. Ohio State has an elite offense and Notre Dame’s secondary has not been great against top competition this season (see: Louisville and USC games). I don’t have many concerns about the Buckeyes scoring points. Notre Dame’s offense isn’t nearly as strong, but the Irish do have talent on that side of the ball and an elite offensive coordinator in Mike Denbrock. Notre Dame’s defense and special teams units have been producing points all season, too. I think this gets over the number. 

PICK: Over 45.5 points (-105 via Caesars)

Prop bet pick in Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Riley Leonard over 14.5 rushing attempts (-102 via FanDuel). This is a big number, but I think all signs point toward Leonard getting at least 15 carries in this game. He had 18 against Penn State and the QB run game has been a big part of Notre Dame’s offense all season. Also: sacks will count toward Leonard’s rushing attempts and I think the Buckeyes are going to be in the Notre Dame backfield a lot in this game considering the Irish’s banged up O-Line. 

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Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.

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