1 bold prediction for every Week 1 SEC game
It’s the best time of year to channel your inner Nostradamus, and predict how the college football season will go.
The big picture stuff is pretty easy in college football. Alabama? Probably going to be pretty good. LSU? Good team. Clemson? Hard to handle.
But that’s why we’re going to dig a little deeper.
Here’s a bold prediction for every SEC game for Week 1.
Some are bolder than others, and if these go 13-for-13, you don’t need to worry about Week 2, because I’ll be off on a Caribbean island with my lottery winnings. But never say that we here at SDS aren’t willing to throw out a wild guess now and again — because here are 13 of them for Week 1.
1. The biggest winners from South Carolina/Vandy? Vandy. And under the point spread.
I’m no gambler, but Vegas has the over/under for the SC/Vandy matchup Thursday night at about 42 points. Given that the Commodores are a 3.5-point favorite, this means Vegas is looking at a 23-19 kind of game.
Know how many times Vandy scored 23 points in an SEC game in Derek Mason’s two years? Two, and both in blowout losses.
For that matter, last year’s game between the schools was 19-10. And when they opened the season playing at Vandy in 2012, the score was 17-13. I think Vandy’s experience wins out in what has a to be a defensive slugfest. Under is the play of the day, and Vandy will go 1-0 in the SEC for the first time since 2011.
2. Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris will each rush for 100 yards in a win over Southern Cal.
USC struggled at times stopping the run last year, and is starting a very young and untested defense, particularly up front. With Bama still fluctuating in the QB picture, Saban (again) will lean on his backs and his line, and it won’t be pretty for USC.
3. Wisconsin won’t score two touchdowns against LSU.
Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows Wisconsin, because he coached their last year. The Badgers had just 3.8 yards per carry last year, and lost their veteran QB. Tiger Bait.
4. Florida State will get to Chad Kelly just enough to beat Ole Miss.
The biggest key to the game for the Rebels will be keeping Kelly upright. In Ole Miss’s three losses last year, Kelly was sacked 2.7 times per game. In their 10 wins, he was sacked 1.1 times per game. FSU had three sacks per game last year vs. ranked opponents.
5. Clemson will beat Auburn by multiple touchdowns.
I think Auburn will be a solid team based mostly off its incredible defense. But the defense won’t have enough weapons to stave off Clemson, particularly if they end up spending way too much time on the field. Vegas has Clemson as a favorite by around one touchdown, I’d go more with 17-21 points for a margin.
6. Ricky Seals-Jones and Josh Reynolds will each have over 100 yards receiving in a win over UCLA.
Texas A&M is going to be an incredibly fun team to watch and UCLA is ill-prepared to deal with big, physical receivers like Seals-Jones and Reynolds. A&M will make a solid statement in this game, and they would have a Heisman candidate, but they’ll do too good of a job of spreading the ball around.
7. Arkansas will lead the SEC in sacks in Week 1.
The Razorbacks have a tough veteran front seven, and are going to unleash McTelvin Agim on an unsuspecting world. The La. Tech QBs will go down and they will go down hard.
8. Whoever the MSU QB is, the Bulldogs will be in the top half of the league in passing this week.
Dan Mullen is a QB whisperer, and Fred Ross is possibly the most underrated played in the league. (Can you imagine Ross at Tennessee or Florida, for instance?) We won’t learn much about State this week, but we will learn that somebody is going to put up a lot of passing yards for them.
9. Tennessee will find that go-to receiver.
Appalachian State is better than most people think, and a big focus for the Vols will be to find the single big-play threat in the passing game who they can go to on a third down, something they must have. As much as his name bounces around UT circles, Preston Williams is my guess. Pencil him in for 100 yards and a touchdown.
10. Jacob Eason will lock down the UGA starting quarterback job this week.
This one isn’t a shock. The guy is good. And UNC is going to come in ready to try to slow the Bulldog run game — which means that right away, Eason is going to show the world what UGA fans know — that he’s ready and he’s good NOW.
11. We won’t learn learn anything meaningful about Florida.
Between the suspensions and the inferior competition, we could learn more about UF if they stayed home and had an intrasquad scrimmage. Maybe next week, we’ll see how good Luke Del Rio will be, or if Mark Thompson adds a new dimension to their ground game. This is my least bold prediction, but its truth prevents anything bolder.
12. Mizzou will lead at halftime but lose to West Virginia.
I have confidence in the renewed Missouri offense, but fear that their losses on defense and the talent of West Virginia QB Skyler Howard will doom the Tigers in the second half. This game will foreshadow much of this season for Mizzou.
13. Kentucky will be one of the best SEC running teams in Week 1.
Southern Miss will be a tough matchup for UK, but two of the team’s relative strengths are a stable of running backs and decent interior offensive line play (4.7 yards per carry in 2015). Southern Miss, on the other hand, starts an undersized defensive line with a lot of 250- to 260-pound players, who will not hold up against the run.