Ad Disclosure
The 2024 regular season is complete.
It’s been a long, winding road to get here, but everyone — save for Army, Navy and a couple other exceptions — have played all 12 regular-season games. The Playoff field is close to being set, although there’s not a clear favorite for the national championship — there’s still much to be decided throughout December and January.
As always, this story will aim to break down some advanced stats and other insights that should provide value for anyone interested in the college football betting markets. Last week, this story broke down Georgia’s flaws, NC State’s advantages over UNC, South Carolina’s edge on Clemson and more.
Here are 10 ideas I’m either buying or selling after Week 14:
Buying: South Carolina deserves a Playoff berth
South Carolina picked up a huge road win over Clemson on Saturday to finish a 9-3 regular season.
The Gamecocks enter conference championship weekend firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble. Their CFP résumé has one significant negative: The Gamecocks have losses to 2 other teams, Alabama and Ole Miss, that also are on the bubble.
And while that’s certainly worth considering, I think South Carolina has enough of an argument to overcome that issue.
For one thing, the Gamecocks’ offense has been worlds better than it was early in the season. The Gamecocks averaged 7.3 yards per play during November, which would have been No. 2 nationally if extrapolated over the full season. Compare that to the 4.42 yards per play that South Carolina averaged in October and 5.51 in August/September. That’s legitimate growth.
South Carolina’s résumé is also pretty good despite having 3 regular-season losses. All 3 of South Carolina’s losses are to good teams, which stands in stark contrast to that of Alabama’s and Ole Miss’. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma — the Gamecocks beat both by 3+ touchdowns. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky, which South Carolina crushed in Lexington.
The Gamecocks also have ranked wins over Clemson and Missouri (and over Texas A&M, who may still be in the committee’s top 25 this week). It’s also worth noting that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was injured in South Carolina’s narrow loss to LSU.
Perhaps most important, South Carolina has closed out the 2024 season on a much stronger note than any other SEC program. The Gamecocks have a point differential of +96 during the month of November, with 4 consecutive wins over AP Top 25 teams. Tennessee (+84) is the only other SEC team above +70. South Carolina is the hottest team in the SEC entering the postseason and it deserves a chance to make a deep Playoff run.
Given that South Carolina was only 1 spot behind Ole Miss and 2 spots behind Alabama before it beat No. 12 Clemson on the road this week, I do think there’s a pretty good chance the Gamecocks leap both in Tuesday night’s Playoff rankings. How the ACC Championship Game shakes out could certainly have an impact on the final Playoff picture, but I think South Carolina has a better chance of reaching the Playoff than most are giving it credit for.
Actionable bet to consider: South Carolina to make the College Football Playoff (+540 on FanDuel)
Selling: The ACC deserves 2 Playoff teams
Somehow, someway, the ACC is entering conference championship weekend with 3 teams that have a viable pathway to the College Football Playoff.
Clemson has the simplest path: The Tigers win the ACC Championship Game and clinch an automatic berth … or they’re out.
Miami, at 10-2, is in the mix along with a few other teams to potentially earn an at-large berth depending on how the Canes are viewed by the CFP selection committee. But given the way Miami has played during November, it’s unclear if the committee will be ready to reward Miami with a Playoff spot.
Miami doesn’t really warrant serious consideration after it collapsed in November losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Miami’s best win is against a 7-5 Florida team and it has 2 very-avoidable losses. There is no résumé-based case for the Canes to get in over an Alabama or a South Carolina. Miami played a much-worse SOS and is also ranked behind the Tide and Gamecocks in FPI’s strength-of-record metric.
SMU was the only ACC team to go undefeated in league play this season, but the Mustangs are not safely in the field yet. They were ranked 9th in last week’s CFP selection committee rankings and could certainly fall out of the bracket if they lose to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game.
SMU probably has the best at-large case of the trio, though, given that it went 11-1 during the regular season. Every other power-conference team with fewer than 2 losses is considered to be a lock going into this weekend. And in theory, a conference championship loss shouldn’t be the reason a team gets banished to bowl season.
But I think this situation is an exception to that idea. If SMU can’t beat Clemson with its season on the line, I don’t think we need to see the Mustangs in the Playoff against programs that are actual threats to beat a good team. That’s certainly not something Clemson has done all season. The Tigers averaged 7.04 yards per play in wins this season. That’s really good! The problem is they averaged just 4.76 yards per play in losses, all of which happened to come in games where they played a team that finished with 7 wins.
If SMU can’t beat a team with that profile, the rest of its résumé — even with an 11-1 record — isn’t good enough to compensate for that (theoretical) failure. SMU’s strength-of-schedule ranks 75th, per FPI. Even from an efficiency standpoint, the Mustangs are a fringe Playoff contender, ranking 12th in ESPN’s post-Week 14 SP+ ratings.
I like SMU to beat Clemson this weekend and put an end to this debate rather swiftly. But if it doesn’t, the Mustangs don’t deserve a mulligan.
Actionable bet to consider: SMU -2.5 (-110 on BetMGM)
Buying: Notre Dame has the inside track to the No. 5 seed … and thus a deep Playoff run
Notre Dame should be the 5-seed next week barring a Penn State upset over Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Even then, the Irish might get the nod over the Ducks for the No. 5 seed.
That would be a tremendous break for the Fighting Irish if they’re able to get the top-ranked at-large berth following their 11-1 season. Notre Dame would then be in position to face the weakest team in the field — likely Boise State, UNLV or Clemson — in South Bend to open up the Playoff.
Then, in the quarterfinal round, Notre Dame would face the No. 4 seed at a neutral site. At this point, that’s projected to be the champion of either the Mountain West, ACC or Big 12, depending on things shake out. In any case, Notre Dame would be a significant favorite to reach the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
Of course, there is some risk that Notre Dame could slip to the No. 6 seed and end up having to face South Carolina or another strong SEC team in the first round. But I think it’s much more likely than not that we see Notre Dame have a relatively-easy path the CFP semifinals. With that in mind, I do think there’s some value on betting the Fighting Irish to win the whole thing at current market prices.
Actionable bet to consider: Notre Dame to win the national championship (+1000 via Caesars)
Selling: Texas should be favored against Georgia
Texas is a consensus 2.5-point favorite over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
There’s a lot that goes into that line beyond what we saw play out in UGA’s 30-15 win in Austin earlier this season, but I’m still surprised to see the Longhorns listed as a favorite.
For one thing, as mentioned, they’ve already played this season — and it wasn’t close. Georgia dominated Texas despite Carson Beck having a nightmare game on the road. The Bulldogs had Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning both seeing ghosts.
While the Longhorns have certainly been the more consistent team since that point, they still haven’t really proven they can beat a team of UGA’s caliber. Texas A&M in Week 14 was a good win because it came in College Station, but it’s alarming that Texas may be No. 2 seed this week without having anything better than a victory over a deeply-flawed A&M team.
I also think it’s important we don’t overrate Texas’s performance at Kyle Field, because it was far from dominant offensively. Texas had a mediocre success rate and was below-average in terms of EPA-per-play. Quinn Ewers isn’t healthy, and that showed up in his 5.7% turnover-worthy play rate against the Aggies (per PFF).
You could certainly poke holes in Georgia’s statistical profile, just as I did as recently as last week in this column. I don’t see the Bulldogs as a likely national title contender because they haven’t proven they can play to a certain ceiling over the course of multiple games. But in 1 game — against a team it has already beaten like a drum — against a program that hasn’t been tested to the degree that it will be in Atlanta on Saturday? I like Georgia in this situation, and I don’t need the points, either.
Actionable bet to consider: Georgia money line vs. Texas in SEC Championship Game (+120 via bet365)
Buying: Oklahoma should be in the QB market this offseason
Oklahoma fell to LSU 37-17 on Saturday afternoon, bringing its 2024 campaign to an end. A season that began with so much promise around former 5-star quarterback Jackson Arnold turned into a nightmare season for both Arnold and the Sooners’ offense as a whole.
There were 102 quarterbacks in college football this season who attempted at least 240 passes. Arnold was less-efficient on a down-to-down basis than nearly all of them. He averaged just 5.78 yards per attempt this season, which ranked 101st out of those 102 passers. The only QB with a worse yards-per-attempt average in all of FBS this season was Kennesaw State’s Davis Bryson.
In the post-covid era, Arnold’s campaign ranks 392nd out of 401 quarterback seasons in terms of yards per attempt. In that metric, he was worse than DJ Uiagalelei in 2021, Spencer Petras in 2022 and Gavin Wimsatt in 2023, to name a few.
Yes, Oklahoma’s offensive coordinator issues are a part of this. But it’s not the entire story. Arnold’s 2024 is a lost season, and Brent Venables likely can’t afford to bet on him turning things around in 2025. Whether or not Arnold decides to return to Norman, OU should look for QB insurance in the transfer market.
Selling: Ohio State got stubborn against Michigan
Ohio State suffered a baffling loss to Michigan over the weekend, falling 13-10.
Even as the game was still going on, a narrative began to form that Ohio State wasn’t throwing the ball enough. And while reasonable arguments could be made about how much “enough” is in this game, it’s false to suggest that Ohio State had an unusually run-heavy game plan.
Ohio State’s offensive issues weren’t about any sort of stubbornness related to winning the line of scrimmage, as some have suggested. The Buckeyes simply weren’t good enough offensively this game, no matter the play call. Ohio State’s yards-per-attempt through the air (6.21) was the worst of the year by a country mile. Its yards-per-rush output against Michigan (2.82) was the 2nd-worst, besting only its performance vs. Nebraska.
The Buckeyes had a pass play rate of 56% in this game, which is their highest mark of any game this season. Even when you remove 4th-quarter snaps when the Buckeyes were forcing the issue a bit more, Ohio State had a pass play rate of about 54% — its 2nd-highest mark of the season for quarters 1-3.
Ohio State also passed more on early downs vs. Michigan (48.8%) than it did vs. any other opponent this season except for Oregon (53.7%) and Purdue (49%). Ohio State did have a pretty low passing rate specifically on first down (41.%), which may be where some of this narrative is coming from. But given how inefficient Ohio State was through the air in this game, I don’t believe a more pass-heavy game plan first down would have had a tremendous impact on the game.
Buying: The Group-of-5 Playoff rep should come out of the MWC
Entering conference championship weekend, there are 3 viable options for the Group-of-5’s Playoff spot: Army, Boise State and UNLV. The Broncos and Rebels will face off in the Mountain West title game this week while Army faces Tulane in the AAC championship game.
I sang Army’s praises all season, but the Black Knights don’t have much of a CFP case given how they played against Notre Dame. Army conceded a yards-per-play differential of more than 6 in that game against the Fighting Irish, which they lost 49-14. In some ways, this was a worse performance than Navy gave in 51-14 loss to Notre Dame — at least the Midshipmen could point to turnovers as a reason why they were uncompetitive against the Irish.
Army has steamrolled most everyone on its schedule, but you can’t lay an egg like that against the only Playoff-caliber team you face and expect an invite to the dance. That’s certainly not what Boise State did when it faced No. 1 Oregon earlier this season. The Broncos played the Ducks as well as anyone not named Ohio State has all season. UNLV, who will face Boise in the Mountain West Championship Game on Friday, also played a very tight game against Syracuse and earned power-conference wins over Houston and Kansas.
Boise State and UNLV are both higher than Army in the efficiency metrics, too. This likely won’t happen every year, but it appears as though we’ve got a true play-in game to the College Football Playoff in the MWC Championship on Friday night — and rightfully so.
Selling: Iowa State’s chances against Arizona State
After a wild season in the Big 12, Iowa State and Arizona State have emerged from a 4-way tie atop the league and will play for the conference championship this week.
Iowa State jumped out to a strong start this season, had a rough go of it in early November, and then finished strong with 3 straight wins. However, I don’t like the Cyclones’ chances in this matchup.
Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo has been a matchup nightmare for Big 12 teams all season, and that will likely be the case again on Saturday in the conference title game. He gained almost 170 yards per game from scrimmage this season, which was second in the entire country only to Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty.
Not only is Skattebo incredibly productive, he’s accomplished all those yards on a very high volume of touches. He’s 7th nationally with a usage rate over 40% and that’s with him missing an entire game’s worth of touches earlier this season due to injury.
Compare Skattebo’s efficiency and volume to an Iowa State defense that ranks outside of the top 100 in rush defense success rate, and I think the Cyclones could be in for a long night against this Arizona State offense.
I don’t see a similar matchup advantage for Iowa State. On paper, Iowa State should have an edge in the passing game over Arizona State’s secondary. But the Cyclones’ passing attack has been trending down late in the season and is only averaging about 7 yards per attempt during November.
Actionable bet to consider: Arizona State -2.5 vs. Iowa State (-110 via bet365)
Buying: Missouri’s season shouldn’t be taken for granted
Mizzou came into the season with legitimate College Football playoff aspirations. The Tigers fell just short, finishing at 9-3 despite a number of key injuries and defensive coaching staff changes coming out of the 2023 campaign.
But it shouldn’t be taken for granted what Mizzou has accomplished over the past 2 seasons. Eli Drinkwitz has led Missouri to a 20-5 record over the past 2 years. That doesn’t happen at Missouri — at least not very often.
If Mizzou wins its bowl game, it will be just the 3rd time in program history that the Tigers have won double-digit games in back-to-back seasons. The first 2 times it happened under Gary Pinkel, Mizzou benefitted from feasting on a horrific divisional schedule — the SEC East in 2013-14 and the Big 12 North in 2007-08. In 2024, Missouri might get there because it beat programs like Oklahoma, Auburn and Arkansas. That’s something to be proud of for Mizzou, even if the team ultimately fell short of preseason expectations.
There are some genuine positives, despite the Playoff failure. Brady Cook and Luther Burden are Mizzou legends forever because of the past 2 seasons. Theo Wease’s performance against Oklahoma will be something Mizzou fans can hold over the Sooners for generations. The Tigers beat Arkansas again.
It’s unlikely Mizzou will be able to replicate this feat in 2025 with a new quarterback and a schedule that’s projected to be more difficult, but it’s encouraging for the Tigers that they have a coach who is capable of building the program to a point where it can contend for multiple seasons in a row.
Selling: Oregon will blowout Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game
Oregon will surprisingly face Penn State this weekend in the Big Ten title game as a result of Ohio State’s collapse vs. Michigan.
The Nittany Lions have been a punching bag for college football fans and media for weeks (really, years) ever since their close loss to the Buckeyes. But the reality is that Penn State has one of the best and most-balanced statistical profiles in the country entering conference championship weekend.
Per Game on Paper, Penn State ranks 4th in their schedule-adjusted EPA-per-play metric. They don’t have any weaknesses in their profile — they’re in the top 40 in rushing offense EPA per play and top 15 in everything else.
They also face an Oregon team that might be a bit flattered by its 12-0 record. The Ducks actually rank behind Penn State in schedule-adjusted net EPA-per-play. They also have a marginally better defensive rating on the year, per SP+ (although Oregon’s overall SP+ rating is higher than Penn State’s).
I also can’t help but wonder how much time Oregon’s staff must’ve wasted looking ahead to Ohio State in recent weeks. The Ducks must’ve spent some serious resources doing some advanced scouting on the Buckeyes, only to now have to play catch-up in preparation for playing Penn State. It’s pure speculation and may not matter much in the grand scheme, but I think the margins here are pretty thin. Oregon has had enough slip-ups this season against mediocrity for me to question how it will play against a fundamentally good team in Penn State. Oregon’s ceiling is certainly high enough to win this game going away, but I think the Nittany Lions make this a 4-quarter affair.
Actionable bet to consider: Penn State +3.5 (-110 on FanDuel)
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
