10 preseason takes that I already want to toss in the trash after 2 weeks
Yes, it’s only been 2 weeks. A lot can change over the course of a 14-week regular season.
But yeah, I’m already throwing some of these preseason takes in the trash.
That’s not a knee-jerk reaction. It’s just me accepting reality that some of these things don’t look like they’ll happen. When you know, you know.
So these are 10 preseason takes that I’ve already given up on:
1. If there’s one team I’d bet the house on to improve its 2018 win total, it’s Tennessee
Eeeeeeeeeeeek. When you go 0-2 in home games against Georgia State and BYU, you don’t exactly have the makings of a bowl team. Not with that schedule. I even said in the preseason that I wouldn’t get caught up in Jeremy Pruitt’s Year 2 win total, so long as it was 6 wins or greater. But yeah, I’m thinking I might’ve already lost the house with that one.
2. Jacob Eason will lead Washington to a Pac-12 title and the Huskies will have a Playoff chance
I said that way too many people were sleeping on Washington and that the Oregon/Utah hype was a bit much. While I still like Eason in Chris Petersen’s offense, losing the Pac-12 opener to Cal doesn’t suggest that the Huskies are ready to potentially be in the Playoff hunt in late-November. You know the worst thing about that? I went to bed before that game even started, so I had to wake up to that news. Awful.
3. Best case scenario is Ole Miss has a mediocre defense
The new best case scenario is that Ole Miss has a top 30 defense that keeps a young offense in way more games than last year. Call it the Mike MacIntyre effect, if you will, but here’s all you need to know about the Rebels’ turnaround. In 2017-18, the Rebels held 1 team under 20 points. Through 2 games with MacIntyre running the defense, they already held 2 teams under 20 points. And while Arkansas is Arkansas, holding a high-powered Memphis offense to 15 points was more noteworthy. The Rebels have a totally different identity in 2019.
4. Kelly Bryant will struggle as a downfield thrower
In my defense, I based that preseason take on this:
Missouri’s passing game will likely look a lot different with Kelly Bryant at QB. Unlike Drew Lock, throwing downfield has been a weakness for Bryant.
Here’s his career passing chart at Clemson: pic.twitter.com/xPVwOcF3Y8
— CFB Film Room (@CFBFilmRoom) December 5, 2018
But so far, so good from Bryant. He had at least 4 downfield passes (balls that traveled at least 20 yards) that I thought were next-level throws against West Virginia. And that’s not including the escapability just to get some of those throws off.
I liked the fit that Bryant had at Mizzou for what he was trying to do. That is, play in a more pro-style system with Derek Dooley so that he’d at least have a chance to play the position at the next level. He still has plenty to prove to show that he can be consistently accurate downfield, but I’d say he certainly helped himself in that regard already.
5. Bo Nix, Ryan Hilinski will use the redshirt rule
Swing and a miss.
What I obviously meant to say was “Nix and Hilinski will both be starting by Week 2.” Nix of course won the job out of camp, which I was wrong about in the spring and again in the fall. The fact that he’s already got a clutch game-winning drive against a preseason Playoff contender under his belt bodes well. And Hilinski, I thought, would be given the redshirt treatment with Jake Bentley entrenched as the starter. But the injury changed things. Now, both could be the quarterbacks of the future in the SEC and we’re 2 weeks into the season.
6. Mississippi State will beat LSU in Starkville
I’m not saying it can’t happen, but after what we’ve seen from the LSU offense already, I’m not sure a bend-don’t-break MSU defense is going to be able to slow down the Tigers. I predicted that as a loss for LSU in part because of the timing. Coming off a big emotional win against Florida, it would have the makings of a letdown. That can still be the case, especially if MSU’s offense continues to progress, but I have major doubts about that with LSU looking like a Big 12 offense all of the sudden.
7. Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields will get off to slow starts in their new homes
Sorry for assuming that there would be a bit of a transition period for the high-profile former SEC quarterbacks. If by “transition period,” I meant that they’d both ball and be on the Heisman Trophy short list after ridiculous starts to the season, then yeah, I nailed it. I liked the season-long outlook for both players, but I’d be lying if I told you I thought that they’d put up such gaudy numbers from the jump (Hurts has 814 scrimmage yards with 9 TDs and 83% accuracy while Fields has 561 scrimmage yards with 9 TDs and 76% accuracy).
8. Alabama is going to treat 2019 Najee Harris like 2015 Derrick Henry
For what it’s worth, this was more of me saying this was what Alabama should do and that the injury to Trey Sanders seemed to set up for that opportunity. Harris missed the 1st quarter of the Duke game with a suspension, but it’s going to take a huge uptick in his workload for him to reach the 300 carries that I projected. He sits at 24 with his longest run at just 12 yards. Brian Robinson has 20 carries and hasn’t done much with them while Nick Saban has been impressed with freshman Keilan Robinson, who has 85 yards on just 7 carries. Unless something changes — another backfield injury, Harris goes off Saturday against South Carolina, etc. — I’d say those Henry workload comps were a bit premature for Harris.
9. The No. 3 QB in the SEC is Kellen Mond
I’m still very much a Mond believer, and I think he has potential to be a top 7 QB nationally despite the fact that he struggled mightily against Clemson. But this is more about the guy who I had just behind Mond at No. 4 to start the season — Joe Burrow. Burrow is clearly an elite SEC signal-caller operating in this offense. I even made the argument that what he did against Texas was more locked in than I’ve seen Jake Fromm in any individual game. And that’s coming from someone who’s a major Fromm supporter. But yeah, the numbers with Burrow don’t lie. He leads the SEC in:
- Passing yards
- TD passes
- Yards per attempt
- Completion percentage
- Passing efficiency
I’m not giving Burrow the Heisman just yet, but man, I can’t imagine not being a believer after what we’ve seen so far.
10. Texas is ba —
Just kidding. I never said that.