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Undefeated Kentucky hosts No. 10 Florida this weekend (6 p.m., ESPN) in a pivotal SEC matchup that is flying under the radar a bit nationally. If the game didn’t share a weekend with Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss’s visit to Tuscaloosa or a top-10 matchup between Arkansas and Georgia, perhaps the matchup would have commanded a bit more attention.
Of course, Kentucky is used to being overlooked in football. Mark Stoops has built a consistent winner over the past decade in Lexington right under the noses of most national fans and analysts. Kentucky is used to the disrespect, to off-hand, lazy jokes about basketball season being just around the corner, and being the one team in the SEC that can start a season 4-0 and still not find its way into the Top 25.
A different coaching staff or program might be discouraged about the disrespect. Stoops’ Kentucky program feeds off of it. They are tremendous at controlling the controllables: blocking well, tackling well, being physical at the line of scrimmage, limiting mistakes, being sound in special teams. You better buckle your chinstrap when you play Kentucky under Stoops. Nine seasons with 5 bowl games — the best stretch for Kentucky in football since Bear Bryant stalked the sidelines — proves that. That will be the case Saturday night, too. Kentucky won’t care about the attention or what happens in Tuscaloosa or Athens on Saturday afternoon. They’ll be amped to play a top-10 Florida team in a charged-up Kroger Field environment and try to get the program’s first win over the Gators in Lexington since the Ronald Reagan Administration.
Here are 3 matchups that will define the football game.
Can Kentucky get production in the pass game from players other than Wan’Dale Robinson?
Wan’Dale Robinson has been one of the best transfers in college football this season, collecting over 500 total yards (receiving, rushing, special team returns) and scoring 2 touchdowns. He has played his best football in SEC competition. Against Missouri, he had 174 total yards of offense on just 8 touches — the one time Liam Coen committed to getting him involved in the run game. Against South Carolina, Robinson caught 7 passes for 65 yards, 3 of which moved the sticks on 3rd down. Those 2 games account for almost half of Robinson’s 25 receptions this season and demonstrate he’s by far the go-to guy in the pass game.
In fact, only Josh Ali has caught more than 3 passes in the other SEC games, and Ali’s totals of 6 receptions for 44 yards in those games are hardly fear-inducing.
Robinson is going to get his Saturday night against Florida. Coen will move him around plenty to avoid a Kaiir Elam matchup all night, and he’ll have chances to get open against Florida’s other corners and in the slot if he gets a favorable matchup on a safety or a linebacker.
He’ll also likely be useful in the run game. As an aside, we should note that Robinson’s NFL future is as a slot receiver, and he did not want to run the ball 50 times a season as he was doing at Nebraska for Scott Frost, which is part of why he transferred. Still, if Coen needs to have him run to win, he should call it and Robinson will do it.
The real question is who besides Robinson gives Will Levis the support he needs to keep the Wildcats multiple in the passing game? Any assignment vs. Elam is a lost cause. But is Josh Ali good enough to beat Avery Helm and Jason Marshall Jr., the immensely talented but raw blue chips Florida plays at the other spots? And after Ali — is anyone? Isaiah Epps was supposed to be that guy after a breakout performance in the opener. He hasn’t caught a pass in SEC play. That needs to change for Kentucky to win Saturday night — and on the flip side, Florida needs to shut down Kentucky’s “other” options to feel good about their chances.
Can Florida hit plays in the downfield passing game against an average Kentucky secondary?
Florida has been better than anticipated on offense through 4 games.The Gators rank 9th nationally in total offense (2nd in the SEC), 3rd in rushing offense, 1st in rushing yards per attempt, 2nd in rushing success rate and No. 3 in S & P+ offense (my favorite metric because it measures production weighted with efficiency and strength of opponent).
Florida was expected to drop off significantly on offense in 2021 after losing a truly generational talent in tight end Kyle Pitts, a first-round draft pick in Kadarius Toney and a Heisman finalist at quarterback in Kyle Trask. That trip helped the 2020 Gators offense finish as one of the best in school history. This Florida offense isn’t quite as prolific, but it’s still really, really good. The Gators go about things differently, a testament to Dan Mullen’s elite ability to adapt his scheme to his personnel — but they are mighty efficient and effective.
The one area the Gators haven’t been great?
The downfield passing game.
Emory Jones is 2-for-9 on passes that travel 20 or yards or more in the air, with this strike to Xzavier Henderson against USF the lone deep touchdown he’s thrown on a long pass.
EMORY JONES ABSOLUTE DIME ?#CFB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 11, 2021
Why does that matter?
The main reason is Kentucky, as ever, is built “Stoops tough” to stop the run (more below) and will be happy to make the Gators drive the length of the field repeatedly playing with the crowd behind them in full throat.
Big plays are huge on the road because they are momentum killers and crowd silencers. Florida needs to find them in the pass game Saturday night because the run game may be more difficult than it’s been for the Gators in their first 4 games.
It’s the run game, of course
It’s tempting to talk about turnovers here instead of the obvious running game matchup. Kentucky has turned the ball over 11 times in their first 4 games, with multiple Chris Rodriguez fumbles dampening the hype over his SEC-leading 513 yards rushing this season. The Wildcats are -9 in turnover differential and if they cough it up like that Saturday night, Florida wins handily.
The thing about that is Florida doesn’t really produce turnovers. The Gators have only 3 takeaways this season and 0 in SEC play. Those were 2 electric home environments. Why would Florida suddenly stress an opposing offense on the road?
That means the football game really does come down to strength on strength. As great as Florida’s run game is, Kentucky’s run defense has been spectacular. They also haven’t just stuffed cupcakes. Instead, they limited last year’s leading rusher in the SEC, South Carolina’s Kevin Harris, to just 38 yards. Before stuffing Harris, the Wildcats limited the outstanding Tyler Badie to 61 yards in their win over Mizzou. Kentucky ranks 20th nationally against the run and 3rd nationally in rushing yards allowed per attempt (2.0). No, they haven’t seen a run game as multiple as Florida yet or a quarterback as dynamic as Jones. But Kentucky won’t get whipped up front by Florida’s mammoth offensive line — and with Kingsley Eguakun and Stewart Reese battling injuries, the Gators are already banged up on their front. How much of a traditional run game they can muster may dictate how effective Jones is — and you’d expect Stoops to have a good plan to slow one aspect of the Florida run game to help frustrate the others.
If Florida can’t run the ball as well as it has in their first 4 games, they’ll likely need more from Jones in the pass game to win. He’s capable — but it’s a tougher ask, especially on the road.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
