3 teams getting too much way-too-early love and 3 teams not getting enough way-too-early love
It’s way-too-early season.
You know what I’m talking about. It’s that magical time of year when we, in the national media, break down the Top 25 for the start of the upcoming season. We do it without knowing the entire list of early NFL departures. In a year like this in which eligibility is guaranteed for seniors, that’s an especially difficult element to navigate.
Nonetheless, we push on. After all, it’s way-too-early Top 25 season. If you haven’t read ours yet, I’m biased but I think you should totally do that.
To be honest, that’s why I actually read the other way-too-early Top 25 rankings and can have an opinion. I’ve done the rankings. I’m not just blindly saying “Iowa State outside of the Top 10 is insane.” That would be insane based on what I’ve seen, watched and read.
Fortunately for you, I compiled the rankings from ESPN, CBS, The Athletic and Sporting News. I know who got too much love, and I know who didn’t get enough love.
Here are 3 apiece for those categories:
Too much way-too-early love
Coastal Carolina
Their rankings — No. 15 (The Athletic), No. 19 (CBS), No. 23 (ESPN), No. 23 (Sporting News)
My ranking — Unranked
What, do I hate fun and mullets? Absolutely not. I love fun. I love mullets.
I just don’t love Coastal Carolina the way others do. If I’m going to bat for a Group of 5 team, I need to have seen what they can do against Power 5 competition. With all due respect Kansas, we didn’t see Coastal Carolina play against a Power 5 team. What we did see was an independent team better than BYU, Liberty, beat Coastal Carolina at a neutral site.
I get it. The Chants get Jamey Chadwell back. That’s huge, as is the return of Grayson McCall. But this is a team with 12 projected starters back, and they lose a lot in the front 7. It’s not easy to become a Boise State, a UCF or a Cincinnati. I need to see another year of Coastal Carolina being nationally relevant before I assume this the No. 2 Group of 5 team in America like others.
LSU
Their rankings — No. 8 (CBS), No. 9 (The Athletic), No. 12 (Sporting News), No. 20 (ESPN)
My ranking — No. 15
I actually thought when I did my rankings that I’d be higher on LSU than most at No. 15. With the exception of ESPN, I stand corrected. It took a 2-game winning streak at the end of the regular season just for LSU to get to 5-5, and they were a pair games that went down to the wire. Most 5-5 teams that have to replace both coordinators aren’t even worthy of Top 25 buzz. LSU isn’t most teams.
And that’s not to say there shouldn’t be expectations for a bounce-bank year. LSU is expected to return 8 starters on each side of the ball, and at quarterback, Max Johnson and Myles Brennan both shown they could be legitimate SEC starters. They’ll have talented skill-players to work with — especially Kayshon Boutte — behind an extremely experienced offensive line. Both offensive and defensive lines should look like typical LSU. Along with some elite recruiting classes and the best cornerback duo in America in Derek Stingley Jr. and Eli Ricks, there’s definitely no shortage of hope in Baton Rouge.
But to start the year in the top 10 would basically be ignoring how big of a train wreck the Tigers were for most of the 2020 season. It’s assuming that LSU will have prolific balance on offense with a new coordinator, and it’s assuming that a pass defense that was among the worst in the country will automatically improve just because Bo Pelini is gone.
A team going from 3-5 in December to a top-10 team to start 2021 seems ambitious, to say the least.
Oklahoma
Their rankings — No. 2 (The Athletic), No. 2 (CBS), No. 3 (ESPN), No. 4 (Sporting News)
My ranking — No. 4
Why get worked up over 1 or 2 spots? Here’s my problem with this: I get that Spencer Rattler is the Heisman Trophy favorite and this defense returns a lot of production after it improved greatly in 2020. Dominate a New Year’s 6 Bowl and people notice. Lincoln Riley deserves credit for the way his team finished the season. There’s no doubt about that.
But putting Oklahoma at No. 2 ahead of teams like Alabama and Clemson is too much. The Sooners have yet to win a Playoff game, and they were run over 3 of the 4 teams they got there. How many times have we said “this is Riley’s best team,” only to watch the Sooners falter on the big stage? Too many to say that’s one of the 2 best teams in America come September.
Oklahoma was a different team once Rhamondre Stevenson came back from his suspension. Now, he’s gone, along with the majority of that starting offensive line. As much as we assume the Sooners will find ground game production, we saw Rattler struggle when Oklahoma was still figuring that part out. I don’t think he’s a finished product, and I’m not convinced that he can be relied on to play mistake-free football if and when he has to throw 35 times.
Don’t get it twisted. Oklahoma deserves to start off as a slight Big 12 favorite to Iowa State. That’s fair when you win the league 6 years in a row. But let’s pump the brakes on the top-2 hype until we actually see the Sooners win a Playoff game.
Not enough way-too-early love
Miami
Their rankings — No. 15 (CBS), No. 18 (Sporting News), No. 20 (The Athletic), No. 25 (ESPN)
My ranking — No. 11
I think 2 big things are contributing to some rare underrating of Miami. One is obviously the D’Eriq King injury. Getting hurt in the bowl game put a damper on his decision to return to Rhett Lashlee’s offense. Even though he has 9 months before the start of the season, some are assuming he’ll be out to start the year.
Speaking of the start of the year, Miami opens against Alabama. I hate, hate, hate when some project records instead of valuing how good a team is at the start of the year. Even though I wouldn’t dare pick against Nick Saban in a neutral-site opener, that shouldn’t impact a preseason ranking. We’re not guessing records here.
I realize that Miami lost a lot on the defensive line with Gregory Rousseau and Jaelan Phillips both turning pro. Manny Diaz still kept the Canes in the top 10 for most of the year without Rousseau, who opted out before the start of the season. Miami also revolutionized that offense last year, and it’ll take another step with it after a (mostly) normal offseason this time around.
I’ll roll the dice on King making a speedy recovery and Diaz finding ways to maximize the potential of that defense in Year 3.
Northwestern
Their rankings — Unranked (all)
My ranking — No. 22
So Northwestern definitely kept tabs on all things way-too-early Top 25. Let’s just say 1 publication made the Cats happier than others:
Not seeing ‘Northwestern’ on a BUNCH of ‘way-too-early Top-25’ polls.
Noted. #GoCats pic.twitter.com/QHBCLHi4ze
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) January 12, 2021
Good lookin’ out 👊
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) January 12, 2021
The Big Ten West champs finished No. 10 in the AP Top 25, yet they didn’t get love by any of those 4 publications in part because they lose a lot on defense, including longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz. Also losing quarterback Peyton Ramsey to the transfer portal wasn’t ideal.
But Pat Fitzgerald just boasted a top-5 defense with a bunch of 2- and 3-star recruits. It wasn’t like he just lost a generational talent. Plus, nobody had more interceptions in America than Brandon Joseph, who will return with promising defensive lineman Adetomiwa Adebawore and prolific senior linebacker Chris Bergin is taking advantage of the extra year of eligibility.
We watched Fitzgerald’s squad gave Ohio State everything it could handle in the Big Ten Championship. This should still be one of the nation’s top defenses, and with Year 2 of Mike Bajakian as the offensive coordinator, I think the Cats have a much more favorable shot at picking up where it left off than not. That’s more worthy of a Top 25 start than the likes of TCU, NC State and Auburn, all of whom got a nod from 1 of those 4 publications.
Florida
Their rankings — No. 8 (Sporting News), No. 12 (CBS), No. 16 (ESPN), No. 17 (The Athletic)
My ranking — No. 12
OK, so I actually don’t have a problem with half of these rankings. I’m looking into the crystal ball for the offseason, and I can already see that I’m more optimistic than most about the Gators bouncing back after the rough finish. Part of that is because Florida earned 3 consecutive New Year’s 6 bowl appearances. That’s no small feat. Here’s the list of teams with that active streak:
- Clemson
- Ohio State
- Florida
- Georgia
- Oklahoma
Yeah, it’s a much smaller list than the average person realizes. That matters in a year of transition like the one Florida is about to undergo.
Those who will take the “under” on any sort of Florida 2021 outlook will cite the struggles without those top 4 pass-catchers in the Cotton Bowl. Dealing with that with roughly a week to prepare and having just 60 scholarship players also played a part in that.
But Emory Jones getting an entire offseason with the first-stringers will be invaluable, and Florida has 3 legitimate first-team All-SEC candidates back on defense (Kaiir Elam, Brenton Cox and Zachary Carter). Dan Mullen’s floor in Gainesville is much higher than some realize. Florida is a fringe top-10 team to start 2021.
I do agree that LSU should be a little lower to start. I do think that we have the talent and hopefully the DC can get improvement on that side of the ball to get us towards the top-10 at the end of the year (schedule also isn’t too bad) but we did just go 5-5 with just about the worst pass defense in the country, so we shouldn’t be top-10. I don’t trust OU and won’t until they win a playoff game. We put them near the top every year but they always lose to a team they shouldn’t lose to and get smoked in the playoffs. Northwestern could be pretty good but I don’t know enough about the Big 10 West landscape next yr. Miami will be in the mix with the Heels for the ACC Coastal crown, hopefully they stay healthy. UF seems right to me though. New QB, they lose a lot of weapons outside, the defense wasn’t very good and I don’t know how they improve. It’s UGA’s crown for the taking in the East next year.
I’m by NO means a gator fan, but their “down the Bowl” game was no indicator on their, or OK’s 2021 future. Sooners, with all their stars shining, caught Gators with their pants down, not unlike our Tigers for most of 2020. Where’s all our stars? OPTED OUT BABY!!! Truth hurts in Rebuild Mode, not Reload Mode. But Freshmen grow up and remember the pain.
The love-affair with Sideshow Dan the Clown continues at SDS regardless of the ridiculous clown Cousin Eddie proved he is once and for all this season.
Also, keep hyping a guy who completes 55% of his passes. I’m sure he’ll be great. LOL.
Emory Jones is a career 64% passer.
JT Daniels is 62%.
Emory Jones completed 56.1% of his passes this season.
J.T. Daniels completed 67.2% of his.
But sure Barner, keep sucking up to the ‘turds. I’m sure it helps ease their pain.
I wouldn’t say me pointing out facts is “sucking up”. I think UGA is going to do good with JT. I also think UF will do good with Jones.
Funny how all these puppy fans know everything about Emory Jones and what a lousy passer he is while at the same time believing all the pre season Heisman hype about Daniels.
UGA is already the East champ with the best QB in the SEC. Shades of Jamie Newman all you premature prognosticators. Some fools never learn
He’s a lousy passer because he’s a lousy passer. ♂️
Also, trying to tie Daniels next season to what Newman did this season is a streeeeetch if I’ve ever seen one, ‘turd.
I think you know deep down bad Daniels started in Jax or maybe even was the guy off the bench then your “best ever season in 11 years that also ended with four losses” doesn’t happen.
Also, welcome back from your shame hiatus.
He is not a lousy passer as you will soon see.
BTW, I have not been on any hiatus and there is no shame at all
Ease up there Littlecojones…. Corch doesn’t exactly count as “all these puppy fans”. Most logical Dawg fans aren’t buying the Heisman hype or best QB in SEC for Daniels. He, like Jones has a limited sample size in the SEC. So, loosen your jorts, go back in your hole and hope Mullet doesn’t bolt for the NFL $$…. me personally, I hope he stays. He creates stories just like Spurrier although he ain’t 1/2 the coach the HBC was.
The only one who has proven to be a ridiculous clown over and over is you my man.
What will you do when the Gator QB proves to be once again better than the UGA QB? You will become more obsessed with everything Gator
This is a reply to Corch the Moron
I love my Tigahs, but truthfully after the Pelini Plunge on Def, we’re in a wait and see mode for 2021 defense. But offense should be top-10 caliber by game 3 or 4. Brenner had at 1,000 yards & 11 TDs in first three games, and Johnson looked great as true freshman & undefeated. Both with rebuilt O-line. No.15 is good motivation for Baby Bengals to grow from.
Can’t believe I’m agreeing w/ a SDS reporter, lol.
Connor, don’t spew your coffee this morning but I agree with you! Now, that being said, I haven’t even bothered to read any way-too-early predictions. And not having seen any of these rankings let me just say; Notre Dame is too high. Speaking of predictions, when’s the way-too-early Heisman predictions coming out? You mentioned Rattler at Oklahoma but aren’t they a given for a high pick just like Notre Dame for the top 10?
Guess you missed the article where Connor already crowned JT Daniels first team all SEC QB and pre season Heisman winner
The average of the four different ranks for Florida is 13.25 and Connor has them at 12. Is that really column worthy content? Seems like that given we are 8 months from kick off, the Florida coaching situation is not fully defined, rosters are far from final, etc. that a difference of 1.25 is the equivalent of Zero.
The average proves his point in this case. The difference in his ranking as the next closest is 4.
Not really sure it proves anything. Everyone knows, with the exception of the few elite teams, that preseason polls 8 months from kick off are a crap shoot at best. BTW – CBS had them at 12 as well and one poll had them better and two worse. Point being, these guys are just scratching to come up with something to write about and it amounts to nothing.
To be fair he started that section with “OK, so I actually don’t have a problem with half of these rankings.”
With that, you are correct. The season is over and they need content. Garbage in, garbage out. If they arent pushing articles, they arent getting clicks.
Can’t really argue with this. I think LSU takes a step forward, but I’m not sure if that’s a preseason top 10 step.
Also looking at the teams ahead of Florida, and looking at Florida schedule, I see at max two losses (Bama, Georgia) with a possibility of going 11-1. I get they’re replacing a lot of production on offense, but Mullen hasn’t had a slide yet while at Florida so I’ll bet on another NY6 bowl. I have them at 10.
So what is the deal? You play QB for Oklahoma and in your 2nd year you are automatically Heisman favorite? The word Heisman shouldn’t even be spoken until week 5-6.
I think Florida at No.12 is about right. They won’t likely beat Georgia or Alabama, but after that their schedule is very winnable.
I think they take a step back on offense. Yes, Jones will benefit from another year and by getting first team reps. Jones is a 56% passer.
Trask went up to 68.9% in 2020 – from 66.9% in 2019. I look for a similar progression from Jones. Jones won’t likely have the same caliber of receivers in 2021. That doesn’t spell top 5 to me.
He is a career 64% passer. He had a down year this year because every defense we played was preparing to stop the pass against us. Maybe I’m just hopeful, but I think having a QB that fits more of what Mullen looks for will benefit him greatly. My worry is the scary throws he makes, some of the picks/bad throws were just hard to watch. Trask took much better care of the football this year for the most part compared to last year. I’m hoping they coach those dangerous, unnecessary throws out of him.
Lot of back and forth there, sorry. By him I mean Jones. When he was pressured this year he made some bad decisions.
GatorRokk, we will see. Jones has been in the system for three years now, and that should set him up for success.
He has a small sample size to look at: 16 attempts-2018, 38 attempts-2019 and 32 attempts -2020.
He was highly rated. I just haven’t been impressed with his passing, and he didn’t impress in the Bowl game. The missing receivers certainty didn’t help.
He just looks like he has much more confidence in his running skills, at this point. It will be interesting.
Don’t kid yourself. A veteran LSU team is dangerous. I expect to see a 10-win team. It’s another odd-numbered year. LSU will get A&M, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas at Tiger Stadium.
I agree that the floor for Florida is pretty high with Mullen. His QB’s will always be fine, our RB situation will greatly improve with Bowman transferring in from clemson and the defense will improve with the babies growing up.
LSU is anyone’s guess. Lots of talent but boy did they look bad this year. They beat us but I would say we had a big part in that..shoe toss Cough Cough.
Miami will lose to clemson, bama and NC. If King isn’t fully recovered it will have more losses.
I still think Clemson loses a ton and yes they have talent, but the only reason they should be top 5 is that they play in such a weak conference. They will lose to NC next year.
Bama and UGA should be top 4 after that it is a crap shoot.
Statistically, LSU put up more of a fight against Florida than Georgia did. Shoe toss or no shoe toss, LSU was in the game late in the 4th quarter. And LSU returns 19 starters. How many starters will be back for Florida?
Florida loses a ton of production but some of it will be addition by subtraction. I also expect Bowman to upgrade the RB room significantly… big assumption.
I do not know what to expect from LSU. They could be very good or average. I give a lot of hope for UF in that Mullen can usually make something out of nothing.