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Week 2 of college football action is in the books.
While most of the country will still be in nonconference play this week, we now have another week’s worth of data to help gauge the market ahead of Week 3. Last week in this piece, we broke down North Carolina in the week after a win (a trend that applies again this week), Josh Heupel’s reliability as a favorite and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to keep an eye on for Week 3:
Oklahoma State as a road favorite
Oklahoma State is a program that we have a lot of relevant data on simply due to Mike Gundy’s longevity in that job. This week, the Cowboys will go on the road to face Tulsa — something it does every few years.
Oklahoma State is a 19-point favorite over Tulsa, per the latest odds from bet365. This is a spot that Gundy has been very good in historically.
Since 2005 when Gundy took the helm, Oklahoma State is 31-21-2 as a road favorite. That’s a cover rate of over 59% over a large sample size of games. Gundy’s been solid as a significant road favorite, too, covering 55% of games where the Cowboys are favored by 14 or more on the road.
This will be the 7th time Oklahoma State has faced Tulsa in the Gundy era. So far, OK State is 4-2 against the spread in those contests. The Cowboys also beat the number in both of their previous trips to H.A. Chapman Stadium.
Iowa after a loss
Iowa is another program that we have a lot of historical data on, since Kirk Ferentz has been in the top job since 1999.
The Hawkeyes took a brutal loss last weekend to Iowa State, crumbling in the final minutes. But history suggests that Ferentz and his staff will have the Hawkeyes ready to punch back in a big way in Week 3.
In the Ferentz era, Iowa is 31-17-3 against the spread when playing at home the week after losing. That’s a cover rate of 63.7%.
In this case, the Hawkeyes are hosting a Troy team in Week 3 that seems to be reeling to start the year. The Trojans are 0-2 with losses to Nevada and Memphis already on their ledger.
Iowa has also been excellent against the number when favored by a significant amount of points. In the Ferentz era, the Hawkeyes are 16-9 against the spread (64%) when favored by 20+ points.
Don’t miss out on the action this fall! Here’s Saturday Down South’s breakdown of all the best sports betting apps on the market in 2024!
Georgia on the road in the SEC
Georgia heads to Lexington this weekend for a matchup against old SEC East foe Kentucky. Historically, going on the road for Georgia hasn’t been a problem, even against SEC competition.
In the Kirby Smart era, the Bulldogs are 25-4 straight up and 17-12 against the spread (58.6%) on the road against SEC opponents. UGA has a similar cover rate (58.8%) when its favored by 14+ points in road SEC games over that span, as it is vs. the Wildcats on Saturday.
Georgia is a 24-point favorite over Kentucky, per the latest odds from FanDuel. In the Smart era, Georgia is 13-7 against the spread in all games when it’s favored by a number between 14 and 28 points.
Kansas State at home
Kansas State will host Arizona on Friday night — a spot that has been very profitable for K-State backers during the Chris Klieman era.
Entering Week 3, the Wildcats are a whopping 20-9 against the spread in home games since the start of the 2019 season. K-State is 14-6 against the spread over that span when it’s a favorite in Vegas, as it is over Arizona on Friday.
Kansas State is also 11-7 against the spread when favored by a touchdown or more under Klieman.
Big underdogs with low totals
In general, it’s a good idea to lean on significant underdogs when the total is relatively low. History says that’s especially true when the underdog is on the road.
Since 2014, road underdogs of 10+ points are covering at a rate of 58% when the total is 49 points or lower. This trend is 3-3 so far in 2024, with Fresno State’s cover against Michigan in Week 1 being the most recent successful example.
Here are some games that fit this trend in Week 3 (odds via DraftKings):
- Arkansas State +23.5 at Michigan | Total: 47.5
- Louisiana Tech +21.5 at NC State | Total: 49
- Tulane +13.5 at Oklahoma | Total: 46.5
- Nevada +17.5 at Minnesota | Total: 44
- Troy +22.5 at Iowa | Total: 39
- UConn +16.5 at Duke | Total: 47.5
- Kennesaw State +19 at San Jose State | Total: 44
- Air Force +16.5 at Baylor | Total: 41.5
- San Diego State +18.5 at Cal | Total: 48
Trends: via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
