5 CFB ideas I'm buying or selling after Week 0

Week 0 only included games for a handful of FBS teams, but there’s still plenty to learn from after 4 full games.

This story will examine some advanced stats and insights from Week 0 that will be applicable for anyone who is interested in betting on college football. To do that, we’ll interrogate some prevailing narratives and see if the underlying data backs them up.

Here are 5 ideas to buy or sell after Week 0:

Buying: Georgia Tech is legit

Everything about Georgia Tech’s win over Florida State seemed sustainable. Haynes King was outstanding. King didn’t have a single turnover-worthy play, per PFF, which was his major weakness last season. In 2023, King had a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.1%, which was tied for 22nd-worst amongst 95 quarterbacks with at least 300 drop-backs.

Georgia Tech’s running game, which also often featured King, was dominant. Jamal Haynes led the way by averaging 6.8 yards per carry while scoring a couple of touchdowns. The Yellow Jackets had a rushing success rate north of 58%. They had a reliable explosive play rate of about 10%. They were excellent on 3rd down and in the red zone.

Defensively, Georgia Tech sent numbers at DJ Uiagalelei and FSU’s offensive line all game, and they couldn’t handle the pressure. That’s illustrated by a 12% havoc rate (all of which came on 7 tackles for loss).

Look, King will probably have a volatile game or 2 later in the year where he makes some mistakes and gets punished for it. But overall, I think this Georgia Tech win was legit. Brent Key has acquitted himself as one of the league’s best coaches already (he has 5 wins against ranked ACC teams in 22 total games as a head coach). The market hasn’t really caught up to how good Key’s game plans are, either. Since Oct. 1, 2022 — Key’s first game in charge — Georgia Tech is 14-7 against the spread. In those 14 ATS wins, Georgia Tech is beating the number by 15.4 points per game.

Actionable bet to consider: Georgia Tech over 5.5 wins (via ESPN BET)

Selling: Florida State’s offense is in trouble

Florida State’s offense was abominable against Georgia Tech. The Noles averaged just 5 yards per play and had no answers for Georgia Tech’s aggressive defense in the box. DJ Uiagalelei’s overall stat line looks decent, but he lived where Georgia Tech wanted him to live: underneath. The vast majority of his production came on screen passes and check-downs.

To illustrate that point: Uiagalelei’s average depth of target, per PFF, was just 8.2 yards. Improbably, his average air yards per attempt in the first half was actually a negative number (-0.1 yards) per ESPN. By any measure (other than completion percentage, I guess), it was a really rough debut for Uiagalelei.

And yet, I find myself wanting to believe in this Florida State team to get back on track. For one thing, I don’t think Uiagalelei is that bad. He showed legitimate growth at Oregon State last year, and we can see that in the numbers. His average depth of target at Oregon State, per PFF, was 11.7 — 8th nationally (min. 300 drop-backs). Maybe it was the wet ball in Dublin. Maybe it was a lack of familiarity with his receivers. Maybe it was Georgia Tech’s scheme. But I’d bet on Uiagalelei improving to at least an acceptable level this season.

The running game was also abysmal, although that might have been correlated to Georgia Tech’s lack of respect for FSU’s passing game. Still, it was a weird play-calling day for Mike Norvell. FSU chose to hand the ball off on 2nd-and-7 or longer on a whopping 9 times. Those rushes gained a total of 26 yards. The success rate on those attempts was 22.2%. That type of play-calling is very out-of-character for Norvell. Per Parker Fleming’s numbers, FSU ranked 34th nationally in rush rate over expected last season — indicating much more aggressive play-calling than we saw on Saturday vs. Georgia Tech. I think Norvell and his staff will figure out a way to be successful with Uiagalelei as a passer moving forward, and that should open up things in the run game as well.

Actionable bet to consider: Florida State +600 to win the ACC (via FanDuel)

Selling: SMU’s offense can compete in the ACC

I was high enough on SMU during the offseason to pick the Mustangs to make the College Football Playoff at +1000 odds. It’s still early, but it certainly seems like that may have been a mistake.

SMU had a very uneven 2024 debut on Saturday night vs. Nevada, particularly on offense. Preston Stone was benched in favor of Kevin Jennings in the first half, although Stone did ultimately regain his role in the 2nd half and led the Mustangs to a comeback win.

But let’s dig into the numbers. Per PFF, Stone had a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.4%. In a 1-game sample, that doesn’t mean a whole lot. But that’s a pretty rough start to the 2024 season. How bad? If extrapolated over a full season, a turnover-worthy play rate of 5.4% would have been amongst the top 5 worst marks by a QB with at least 300 drop-backs in 2023.

The running game wasn’t strong either. Going up against a Nevada defense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed last season, the Mustangs posted a rushing success rate of just 43.7%. That would have been in roughly the 55th percentile amongst all FBS teams last season. That’s not a disaster by any means, but again, this was the result against Nevada. SMU has to play 10 games against power-conference teams this season. I’m skeptical that SMU has enough in the tank to get through the year.

Actionable bet to consider: SMU under 8.5 wins at ESPN BET (-150)

Selling: New Mexico might be better than the market thought

New Mexico almost pulled off the upset of the day on Saturday. The Lobos found themselves up by 17 points entering the 4th quarter against FCS Montana State. However, the Bobcats stormed back with a 21-point 4th quarter and win. Losing a close game to an FCS team isn’t necessarily a badge of honor, but New Mexico was actually a 13.5-point underdog in this matchup. Pulling off this win would have been genuinely impressive.

Unfortunately, I don’t have good news for New Mexico fans. This game was only close thanks to a pair of defensive scores, which is likely not a repeatable trick moving forward. New Mexico was terrible on 3rd down and in the red zone. It hardly created any explosive plays. Its EPA per play was a negative number. Defensively, it allowed Montana State to have a rushing success rate of almost 57%.

Everything points toward this being a blowout the majority of the time. It’s hard to sell a team that came into the season with a regular-season win total at just 1.5, but there may be a small opening if bettors see New Mexico is undervalued after nearly pulling off an upset as a near-2-touchdown underdog.

Actionable bet to consider: Arizona -30.5 against New Mexico (via ESPN BET)

Selling: Teams that played in Week 0 (for Week 1 only)

You might think teams that played in Week 0 will have an advantage over their Week 1 opponents that have yet to debut this season.

However, history tells us the opposite. Over the past 10 seasons, teams that are playing their first game of the season against an opponent that is on a week’s rest are a whopping 38-19 against the spread. That’s a cover rate of 66.7%, meaning it’s been an extremely reliable system over the past decade.

Per FanDuel, here are the Week 1 lines involving FBS teams that played in Week 0:

Florida State (-17.5) vs. Boston College
Georgia Tech (-21.5) vs. Georgia State
Nevada (+9.5) at Troy
Hawaii (+12.5) vs. UCLA
New Mexico (+31.5) at Arizona

Note: SMU does not apply to this trend as the Mustangs are facing FCS Houston Christian in Week 1.

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SicEm 3 weeks ago

The legitimacy of Ga Tech will be confirmed after a few games. The legitimacy of FSU, however, with Uiagalelei as QB1 is the same as Clemson’s was when he was there. He had a decent season with OR State but nothing that would indicate he is better. FSU’s defense was the surprise for me. Maybe they really are still dazed and confused from that beatdown in late December.

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