O'Gara: 7 SEC things I'm watching for tonight in the NFL Draft
The NFL Draft is here, and for the SEC, that usually means it’s time to flex.
For the past 17 years, the SEC produced the most NFL Draft picks of any conference. You can set your watch to that social media post.
But this year, it could be on the line.
A big part of that is Michigan, which has visions of breaking Georgia’s modern Draft record of 15 selections. If the Wolverines set the table with a feat like that, the Big Ten could end the SEC’s streak at 17. It’s also significant because this is the last year that we can treat it like a true competition. After all, the Big Ten is expanding to 18 teams in 2024. The SEC, on the other hand, will be at 16.
We’ll know the answer to that by the end of the weekend. For now, though, let’s stick to what’s worth watching for the SEC on Thursday night in Round 1:
1. Will we get any Jayden Daniels drama?
All signs point to Daniels being the No. 2 overall pick for the Washington Commanders. Mock drafts and odds suggest that’ll be the outcome. As of Tuesday, DraftKings had Daniels at -400 to be the 2nd player selected. Any outcome to the contrary would qualify as drama. A trade-up to No. 2? Drama. A Drake Maye selection? Drama. A JJ McCarthy selection?!? Drama. If that happens, throw out the mocks. The first round will get weird in a hurry.
2. Malik Nabers coming off the board No. 5 to 9 feels inevitable, but maybe No. 4 to the Cardinals is in play?
Nabers feels like one of the biggest mock draft risers, which is a weird thing to say about someone who had the best season of any receiver in the sport in 2023. Perhaps there was some “chalk it up to the system” with Nabers catching passes from the aforementioned Daniels, but that’s well in the rearview mirror. He shouldn’t have to wait very long because 4 of the 5 teams that are selecting between 5-9 should be in the market for a pass-catcher. Shoot, maybe the Falcons are, as well, even after their run of offensive skill-players in the top 10 the last 3 years. Nabers getting to the Jets at 10 would be a significant early surprise. Who knows? Maybe the first big surprise is Nabers coming off the board to the Cardinals at No. 4 instead of Marvin Harrison Jr.
3. Will Dallas Turner be the first defensive player drafted?
The Falcons drafting at No. 8 feels like where Turner is showing up most often in mocks — he’s +170 on DraftKings to be picked there — but in a draft that lacks some of the obvious top-end defensive players, who really knows? Maybe his teammate, cornerback Terrion Arnold, could be the first defensive player off the board. Perhaps Turner won’t even be the first edge rusher selected and someone like UCLA star Laiatu Latu will do just that. The last time a defensive player was Alabama’s first selection in the NFL Draft was Quinnen Williams in 2019. Turner going inside the top 10 would likely put an end to that.
4. I’ll do my best not to get too mad if Brock Bowers falls out of the top 10 … but no promises
I get it. The positional value doesn’t have Bowers in the same spot as others. But the fact that he’s the best tight end in college football history has to appeal to someone inside that top 10. The Jets at 10 could be where the market begins for Bowers. If the Georgia All-American comes off the board there, I won’t have to shake my head at the NFL collectively. If he doesn’t and instead drifts into that 15-20 range, I’ll wonder why the league overthought Bowers, who is ready to be a top-5 tight end from the moment he steps onto an NFL field.
5. The Brian Thomas Jr. landing spot could be all over the place
I’m super intrigued by Thomas. If this were 20 years ago, I doubt he makes it out of the top 10. You can’t teach his size and ball skills. But at a time when the interchangeable receiver is a bit more valued, I’d be surprised if Thomas came off the board that early. Having said that, anywhere 12-32 could be in play. Thomas’ value could depend on what happens with Marvin Harrison Jr., the aforementioned Nabers and Rome Odunze. If they’re all of the board in the first 9 picks, does a receiver-needy team get antsy and trade up for him around 12-17? Or does the depth at the position delay a potential run on receivers until the 25-32 range? All feel possible for the nation’s leader in receiving touchdowns.
6. Does Ladd McConkey sneak into the first round?
Here’s a 3-pack of facts that the casual fan might not know about Georgia receivers:
- Terrence Edwards was the only 1,000-yard receiver at UGA (2002)
- George Pickens was the only UGA receiver drafted in the past 4 years
- AJ Green was UGA’s last first-round receiver back in 2011
McConkey can’t go back in time and record a 1,000-yard season, but he can check those last 2 boxes on Thursday. In a deep receiver draft, perhaps that hurts McConkey’s stock after he tore up the Senior Bowl and impressed during the pre-draft process. Alternatively, the versatile McConkey could be an ideal fit for a team late in the first round like Buffalo, Baltimore or Kansas City. The latter seems far more likely than it did at this time last year.
7. Will the SEC have its worst first round since 2015?
The last time that the SEC didn’t have at least 8 players selected in Round 1 was 2015. That year, 7 SEC players came off the board in the first round, though the SEC still led the way in total selections with 57. This year, I wonder if it’ll be closer to 7 or 8 first-round selections from the SEC. The first-round locks appear to be Daniels, Nabers, Turner, Bowers, Arnold, JC Latham and Thomas. That’s 7. Maybe you could add Amarius Mims and Kool-Aid McKinstry, but I don’t think it’d be shocking if they didn’t come off the board, which is also true for the likes of Darius Robinson, Kamari Lassiter and McConkey. That means the range could be anywhere from 7-12, but I’d probably bet closer to 7. In other words, brace for the anti-SEC crowd to be out in full force by night’s end.
It’s interesting that the TE position is the most “missed” position in the NFL draft. Wonder why?
The teams that have won multiple Super Bowls over the last 20+ years have all had great TE’s. I will never understand why certain teams don’t utilize them. A big TE like Gronk and Kelsey are game changers.
Well said. My grandson is a Bengals fan and hoping Bowers drops to 18. If he does then we need to call in the detectives or psychiatrists because that would be a steal!
“Will the SEC have its worst first round since 2015?”
Why does it matter? Getting drafted in the first round is no guarantee of success.
Amen. Fewer than 50% of 1st round draft picks have their contracts extended by the team that drafted them.
“But this year, it could be on the line.”
I don’t know anyone that cares about the SEC’s dominance in the NFL draft. All that matters is what happens AFTER a player is drafted. I can think of many SEC busts over the years.
Ron…QB JaMarcus Russell comes to mind when I hear the word “bust”.
Yeah, but that’s an old example and also a QB which is the hardest position to predict. I was thinking of a few defensive players like Nick Fairly. That guy looked like Warren Sapp and didn’t do squat in the NFL.
I think the SEC will get at least 8 drafted in the first round. Too many guys on the fringe to have all of them passed over.
All depends on needs of each team. Daniels and Nabers are guaranteed first rounders in my opinion. There are a few SEC players that should go in the first round but they have had injury issues (Mims from UGA).
The seven locks he mentions do seem to be locks. I think MCKinstry is 8. He should be a lock. Several others have decent shots.
I didn’t see 7 locks in the article. He mentioned 6 but there is no way Ladd McKonkey is a first rounder. Bowers, yes.
The seven are listed in the last paragraph
“The seven are listed in the last paragraph”
Buried in the paragraph I see now. Yeah, any of those are capable of being first round picks for sure.
Man, Daniels and Nabers are top 10 locks. Nabers will end up being the best player to come out of this draft imo.
Way too many variables for Nabers to be the best player in the draft.
Saban about to produce 4 1st rounders for an incredible 7th time, breaking his own record once again. Amazing career that’ll never be duplicated.
IF McKinstry sneaks into the back end of the 1st round, then yes.
Yep. That would be hard to accomplish in today’s environment.
Would love the Saints to draft Fashanu, Bowers, or Brian Thomas in the 1st, and Nix in the 2nd.
Would love the Bengals to draft Bowers or Thomas.
It is likely the SEC gets the 7 mentioned in the 1st round, but McKinstry could sneak in there as #8.
If the Saints draft Nix then he should sit for a few years and learn.
Its all about needs. It sound slike next years draft will be a weak one for QB’s so a lot will be taken this year and if you want a good one you have to select him early. After that it will be OT’s. Then its more about your biggest need and who is available. if a team has bigger needs than TE you could see Bowers drop quite a bit. There are a lot of QB’s, OT’s and DL that will likely come off the board before bowers. In any case I see him around #14-16 or so. Im also intrigued to see if and when someone will select milton. Its crazy that if he didnt have a howitzer arm he probably wouldnt be selected at all. That arm is like a drug to some GM’s and they smoke it, snort it, shoot it and dream about that arm being a saving grace in a few years. heup, me and several million UT fans did too.
The anti-SEC crowd? No SEC team in the playoff champ game in the 4-team’s first and last season. Other than that, the SEC dominated.
If you don’t ‘get’ that the SEC is the predominate P4 conference in college football you are not paying attention.