After 2 SEC programs paid coaches 8-figure buyouts, who are the most likely candidates to do that next?
I never thought we’d see the day.
But on Dec. 13, 2020, it happened. Gus Malzahn was fired and we saw the first SEC program agree to a buyout north of $20 million ($21.45 million was the total damage). Go figure that it happened during a pandemic season in which universities across the country took major revenue hits.
(I realize that buyouts aren’t paid by ticket sales and that teacher salaries aren’t cut so that a coach can be fired. Buyouts are more about booster momentum than anything else.)
Still, Malzahn was part of what turned out to be a revealing offseason for the SEC. Even though Will Muschamp ultimately settled for a lump payment of $12.9 million instead of the original $15 million that was reported, 2 SEC coaches picked up 8-figure buyouts.
Oh, and Jeremy Pruitt is involved in a lawsuit in an attempt to get his 8-figure buyout. So there’s a chance that the 2020 offseason could yield 3 SEC coaching buyouts of 8 figures.
Eight-figure buyouts are quickly becoming the norm. In 2020, 33 FBS head coaches had 8-figure buyouts. Nine were in the SEC, and 3 of those coaches were fired. Two decades ago, it was rare to have 7-figure buyouts. Times have changed.
Before factoring in offset money, 6 SEC coaches were owed 8-figure buyouts after getting fired (Chad Morris, Bret Bielema, Kevin Sumlin, Les Miles, Will Muschamp and Gus Malzahn). All of those happened in the last 5 years, too. Soon, others will join that club. It’s inevitable.
Who’s next?
Well, this is not a hot-seat list. This is instead the list of coaches who are the most likely to eventually join this club. In order to do that, you actually have to have a buyout of 8 figures.
Nick Saban isn’t getting fired at Alabama, and I’m not holding my breath on Mark Stoops getting fired at Kentucky, where he coached with a $24 million buyout in 2020. Someone like Eli Drinkwitz had a buyout of $14.35 million in 2020, but that was in Year 1 (and it was a solid Year 1). That number will decrease the deeper he gets into his current deal.
Keep that in mind as you read this list:
Ed Orgeron, LSU
I banged the drum for Orgeron not just in 2019 but in 2018 when he overcame some low expectations and won a New Year’s 6 bowl. I believe Orgeron can coach, and I don’t think he’ll get fired after 2021. If anything, I’d expect a bounce-back year.
But this is about understanding the dynamics at play here. Scott Woodward didn’t hire Orgeron. Joe Alleva did. Granted, Woodward gave Orgeron that new 6-year deal after LSU won it all in 2019. That buyout was at $23.8 million in 2020 (via USA Today). One would assume that Orgeron, who makes $7 million annually, is going to be in the 8-figure buyout range for the duration of that deal, which ensures him 70% of the remaining contract as the buyout. Coaches at big-time programs rarely have less than 3-4 years on their deal because of recruiting (allegedly), which would mean Orgeron getting fired with 3 years left on his current deal would still net him somewhere in the neighborhood of $14.7 million.
If Orgeron doesn’t fade off into the sunset at LSU, he’ll join the 8-figure buyout club. Then again, a national championship-winning coach hasn’t been fired since Gene Chizik in 2012. Woodward is the same guy who “negotiated” Jimbo Fisher’s $75 million guaranteed deal at Texas A&M.
Speaking of Fisher …
Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M
Like with Orgeron, any situation involving Fisher getting fired is going to equal an 8-figure buyout. That’s reality when you sign a fully guaranteed, 10-year contract worth $75 million. In case you were keeping track at home, Fisher coached in 2020 with a buyout of $53 million (!), which was the largest in all of college football. Even if Fisher gets down to 2 years left on his current deal, which runs through 2027, that’s still $15 million that he’d be owed.
It was always going to be interesting to see Fisher get deeper and deeper into this deal. In most scenarios, the coach who just put together the team’s best finish in the AP Poll since 1939 would be due a hefty raise and an extension. Even 3 years after he agreed to it, though, it’s still hard to imagine a deal much more favorable than Fisher’s. Ross Bjork left Ole Miss to go to Texas A&M knowing that Fisher’s contract would essentially be locked in for several years.
While I’m now in the camp that A&M will start cranking out top-10 seasons like it never has, what happens if Fisher puts together 3 years in which he misses a New Year’s 6 bowl? If years aren’t added to that deal at any point between now and then because of the nature of the contract, that would Bjork in quite the spot. Fisher, with 4 years left on his deal, would still be owed roughly $30 million. Would Bjork, who didn’t hire Fisher, pull the trigger? Maybe, maybe not depending on what those 3 years looked like.
I don’t want to say that the Aggies are going to pay a $30 million buyout … but if there was a future with something like 5-to-1 odds on the first team to pay a $30 million buyout, well, let’s just say I’d be super intrigued.
Kirby Smart, Georgia
Smart’s buyout was $19,835,834 in 2020. That seems low. Look at some of the coaches who had steeper buyouts in 2020:
- Scott Frost, Nebraska
- Greg Schiano, Rutgers
- Luke Fickell, Cincinnati
- Mark Stoops, Kentucky
- Mel Tucker, Michigan State
- Kyle Whittingham, Utah
- Tom Allen, Indiana
- Matt Campbell, Iowa State
Yes, all of those coaches had buyouts north of $20 million in 2020. Wild, I know.
Also wild it is to think that this May will mark 3 years since Smart got his extension. That paid him an average of $7 million annually on a deal that runs through 2024. His buyout is 65% of the remaining deal, which means that if he were to get fired after the 2022 season, he’d still be owed just south of $11 million.
Do I expect that to happen? No, but it is worth noting that longtime athletic director Greg McGarity just retired at the end of 2020. Josh Brooks got promoted after serving as the deputy athletics director. That’s different from an outside hire stepping in, but it’s something to be aware of when we talk about a coach’s job security.
Smart is likely due for another extension within the next year or so, barring a collapse. If he ever does get fired without cause at Georgia, though, one would assume it’ll be an 8-figure payday.
Mike Leach
Do I think MSU is all in with Leach? Yes. But this is about the dynamics at play here. State employees in Mississippi cannot have contracts longer than 4 years. That’s why Leach’s deal was worth $20 million over 4 years. That’s an average of $5 million per year. Understanding that, and also understanding that the vast majority of Power 5 coaches have at least 3 years left on their deal at all times, pretty much any scenario in which Leach gets fired without cause would net an 8-figure buyout.
Leach is fully guaranteed the remainder of the contract. If he doesn’t retire or resign at MSU, one would think that he’ll always have at least $10 million remaining on his contract as long as it has at least 2 years left on it.
It’s possible that Leach could wear out his welcome in Starkville. Lord knows Joe Moorhead got the boot quicker than many expected. My gut says there will be more patience with Leach, and he’ll get at least 1 extension at MSU. But it seems entirely possible that a failed Leach experiment would result in an 8-figure buyout.
And a thought on Dan Mullen …
Something to keep in mind is that he has a flat buyout of $12 million if he’s fired without cause. The years left on the deal don’t matter. His contract pays him $6 million annually, so even if he did have a normal buyout, any firing with just 2 years left on the deal still would net him 8 figures.
It’ll be interesting to see how these negotiations play out. Scott Stricklin made it publicly known last March that they were working on an extension after Mullen became the first FBS coach to start his tenure with consecutive BCS/New Year’s 6 bowl victories. Then the pandemic happened and those talks were apparently shelved.
Had Florida finished in a somewhat normal fashion, we might’ve already been talking about an extension. Instead, a 3-game losing streak with 2 bizarre losses spoiled an otherwise spectacular year in Gainesville. Rumors of reported NFL interest could’ve had something to do with Mullen seeking an extension and/or a new deal. He has yet to sign any sort of extension halfway through the contract he agreed to shortly after the 2017 season when he left MSU.
Mullen already ranked No. 10 among the highest-paid coaches in America. Could Stricklin rework a deal to get Mullen at the same price as Smart, which is closer to $7 million annually? Or could Stricklin wait and decide Mullen’s future based on what happens in 2021? We don’t know.
If Mullen is ever fired from Florida, which I wouldn’t bet on but isn’t impossible, that buyout will be in the 8 figures. Stay tuned.
It is hard to come up with stuff to write about in the off-season. Make a little more effort.
Agreed… article was a waste of time… Somewhere out there in SEC football world there has to be something more interesting than this pile of speculation.
I disagree, good article, and Oeaux should be at the top of this list. It’s nattys or next on the bayou.
LSU has 4 titles in 100 plus years of football…
Lot of next it seems…
LSU has four titles this century bub… only what 2 less than saban. Yes I count 2011, we won more games than yall, were sec champions, and beat yall in tuscalose… its definitely more legit than half of your so called 18 ships.
2003
2007
2011
2019
That is like counting the money you have already spent as still in your account. You have to be among the largest idiots on this site. That is saying a lot. I hear it took LSU 2 weeks to get from New Orleans to Baton Rouge, after getting their @sses handed to them in 2011, because someone painted a 50 yard line across I10.
LMAO… You’re a dumba$$…
Get ready for another Next In LSU’s history…
The BCS was a sham, hence why its no longer around, should have been Oklahoma state in that game. Speaking of shams how about that 1941 Bama national championship? Yall literally finished the season ranked 20th behind 4 other SEC schools! Gumps claim 12 fake, illegitimate championships. You can plaster the number 18 on things all you want, but there is a reason the SEC and the rest of the country don’t recognize em. But in true bama fashion LSU has won 9 national championships including 2011!
All we need is a Wayne Atcheson to pencil em in the media guide
So in Oregon’s first season at LSU did LSU have more wins or sexually assault cover ups?
I crack myself up.
Can’t wait for daddy Oeaux to skull fugg you gumps in tuscalose again.
We comin, and we ain’t backin down.
Baylor 2.0
You wouldn’t know about Coach O skull f**king anyone because LSU would cover it up…
Roll tide what!?
STTDB
55-17 says it all… You couldn’t cover that up..
Oh, it’ll be Dacoacheaux for sure.
Scott Woodward wants to keep his job. He knows Coach Whiteboots is doomed to fail and he wants this expedited toots sweet. That’s why he eagerly signed off on these new coordinator hires and wouldn’t lift a finger to help.
It’s so painfully obvious no one worth having wants to work for Yawyaw and Woodward wasn’t going to aggressively pursue anyone Farmer Fran might ruin. Coffee is for closers people and Dacoacheaux is no closer.
In fact, word in Red stick is Steev Inzminguh, the guy who had to cram Brady down Yawyaw’s throat was asked to sorta stay out of it and you know what. I’ll bet he was glad to. He’s an alum and actually cares about the program. He knows Dacoacheaux can’t handle this. Besides, Yawyaw is the same guy that said in a press conference recently that Inzminguh was stepping down because he’s “gotten old and it’s time”.
The fact of the matter is LSU ended up with two bottom of the barrel coordinators who were just happy to be in the barrel. This happened because no one in that program wanted to help Dacoacheaux out. He was left to his own devices by the guy who gave him Brady and his athletic director. When Dacoacheaux is left to his own devices, this is the outcome.
This season’s gonna go real hard on you folks.
Oh and another thing. Reinstate Pandy Fackler.
You better believe Scott Woodward says a prayer every night that Coach O wins this year because if not his a** is grass as well… if you dont think both of em are on the hot seat right now you are delusional.
I have no idea what they think of coach O. I like him, it is hard not to. That being said it is tough to figure out the LSU fans. I worked in Louisiana for years, retired from there, and the whole time I was there they constantly berated Miles. This was prior to 2011 when he was doing a good job. I never did figure them out.
We dont settle for mediocrity… its beat bama, win a natty, or go your a** home.
So there has been a lot of time spent at home I see….
Maybe if there was less time spent at home their record would be more impressive. They have not beaten Bama often in the last 60 years, nor have they often won a “Natty”. They have won 4 in the same amount of time Bama has won 13.
Bama has doubled them up in the series and has more wins on LSU home field than LSU has on the series…
It’s not a close series..
You remind me of Barney Fife. Often wrong, but never in doubt. Your opinion clearly is gold..to you.
No kidding. It is Bama’s dream. They have offered to fund it.
What would you suggest? Come on – you always have something to add to every article so what topics would YOU like for him to write about so you can add your usual negative input?? I don’t agree with all his articles or find them all to be worth the effort to read, but I accept that this is a FREE SITE and no one forces me to come here an read. I have requested many times for an IGNORE feature so I don’t have to waste precious time reading ignorant posters going at each other like the “my Dad can lick your Dad” kids I grew up with back before kids HAD TWO DADS!
Its odd to see that there are a handful of schools, maybe a couple of handfuls, that make the decision to fire a coach based on whether they have achieved a national championship, not so much on their overall record. Outside looking in, I would imagine that Malzahn’s record would look like a keeper to many. But if you think you are deserving of a championship, or several, you’ll pay millions to get rid of a winning coach. Auburn may be just one of many that will pay out much in a chase for a championship. With that in mind, I dont see Mullen being pushed out anytime soon, or Orgeron and Smart. I was surprised when MSU made their move and felt like it had something to do with the Ole Miss hire.
Forget championships, nobody should have to pay that much for 8-4. Gus’ salary was like paying the premium to buy all your groceries at 7/11.
I totally agree. If he had not gotten that raise, he would have been safe. As it was, it was like paying for Tenderloin and getting a burger.
Reckon we’ll ever see a coach’s contract tied to EXPECTATIONS and I don’t mean the bonuses? Would a coach go for a contract that paid him his full salary based on an expected 10 win season and then 10% added for each win over 10 and 10% deducted for each win under 10?? I guess you’d have to have a committee to review the team each year to establish the new bogey, but it’s be interesting!
I doubt we will live to see that.
Generally when you’re hiring an allegedly good coach there are other suitors for his services, so nobody is going to agree to terms like that. It would only work on somebody desperate for a promotion.
True, but we were just talking the prospects. It would be more realistic than paying a coach a million for 2 weeks work. Or 21 million not to work. It has gotten out of whack.
“But if you think you are deserving of a championship, or several, you’ll pay millions to get rid of a winning coach.”
LSU did this with Les Miles. Les was wildly successful at LSU…. 114-34 over 12 seasons, 9 or more wins in 9 seasons, 5 top-10 finishes, two national championship appearances, and one national title. But he had 2 fatal flaws that finally did him in. The loss to Auburn broke the tiger’s back when we seemingly scored the winning TD on the final play of the game only to have replay show the ball was snapped after time ran out. This last-second bumbling was the typical fashion in which Les lost both the games we should have won and the games we shouldn’t have won but were in a position to (psssst SDS this would be a great article about all the games Les lost in the final minutes). Imo this is as much of what got him fired as his resistance to change schemes was. Les could have saved his job and won more games if he would have simply had a Clock Management Intern stationed next to him the final half of the 4th qtr every game.
If Ed O doesn’t have a decisively winning season this year then he’s on the hotseat. Doesn’t have to win the SEC but has to compete for the West. *HAS* to get the defense’s head out of it’s arse or he’s in trouble.
About the dumbest article posted on SDS. Write about Saban’s breakfast menu, Kirby’s barber, or Mullen’s shoe collection for crying out loud…oh wait, those were thrown away!
“If Orgeron doesn’t fade off into the sunset at LSU, he’ll join the 8-figure buyout club. “
That depends… With the NCAA looking around he could end up the JP route and fired with cause..
I was thinking this same thing. I doubt he coaches himself out of a job. It will be over the NCAA findings. I bet LSU isn’t doing a whole lot of digging to get him out though unlike my Big Orange Clusters.
We have already dug and punished ourselves… guess yall missed the memo.
You offered up a voluntary sanction (with no real punishment), but it was not a negotiated settlement with the NCAA. More is coming down the line.
You wish.
Heard it all before.
Last I checked will wade and whiteboots still our coaches.
It seems much of LSUs issues are outside of the coaches (save the tennis coaches) and more on the administration side.
I looked at timeliness of accused players and they all had either quit or been suspended by Coach O after the initial charge/accusation.
He’s not going to speak publicly about an accusation and he shouldn’t.
The real issue is what did the compliance officd do or not do? Athletic office staff do or not do?
It could still hammer thr team without being at the feet of O.
Also the NCAA is trying hard to hit football because of Wade. We all know he did it and LSU will pay for that unless Wade is able to smokescreen enough to get past the arbitrator
Coach O has spoken publicly about it. Denies the claim of one one of his football players that he knew about the rape.
All of those big buyouts on that short list looked like good bets, except maybe Mel Tucker.
I’m not sure coach O’s buyout is particularly likely. Seems like if the events happen that make his firing likely (the NCAA assault stuff mainly) then LSU would have plenty of cause to can him, this avoiding the buyout.
Barring that he has still managed to get a solid 2021 class signed.
I don’t see any of these as particularly likely anytime soon.
I think if they were going to fire him for cause over the Title IX stuff, they’d have had to have done it this year. It would seem very shady to basically make the case that after 2-3 underperforming seasons they suddenly realized three year old allegations were credible.
Well I would imagine they couldn’t do it until they confirm it took place… They would have to conduct the investigation they didn’t do to start with…
I think another problem is not every school is into the Tennessee-style cutting off your nose to spite your face school of coach firing.
“It would seem very shady…” – would that surprise anyone? It’s LSU. I have seen “team votes” at LSU that were incredibly shady.
Well, I mean shady in terms of lawyers calling the bluff on firing with cause to avoid buyout on something that was known years ago but apparently didn’t matter until the losses piled up.
It’s an article about SEC football during the dead offseason, so I’m good with it. I like that O’Gara’s giving a take that’s different than the usual “who’s on the hot seat”. Of all the people a year ago predicting who’d be fired or hired a year later, they all swung and missed badly.
I think it is entirely possible that Mullen gets fired. I would say that it will probably happen in the next 2 years. Mullen is his own worse enemy. He runs his mouth and is very unprofessional on a fairly regular basis. To give UF their props, they do not put up with that. They carefully guard the reputation of their school and program, and Stricklin will cut him loose in a heartbeat if Dan does not tread lightly. Mullen does not have a record of treading lightly for long.
UF like most other schools will do exactly what the big donors tell them to do. If Mullen can continue to win at a high pace, he will be given time. If he starts losing 4 games a every year…all of a sudden those quirky ways will lead to a firing.
To reference cks is just lazy. he’s currently as safe at uga as stoops is at uk.
u reference the promotion of brooks to ad, which speaking of lazy, i’m hoping he’s giving a little more attn to the garbage product coming out of stegeman than what’s coming out of the hedges