Analytics expert projects every Week 1 outcome for all 13 SEC matchups
This time next week, we’ll have two SEC games in the books and will be on the eve of one of the best opening Saturdays of college football in recent memory. With time running out to make predictions before the actual games arrive, college football analytics expert Brian Fremeau has released his picks for every Week 1 game.
Posted on Fremeau’s site – BCF Toys, every SEC game, score and probability of victory have been projected for the upcoming week of SEC action. According to Fremeau’s metrics, projections are determined by ‘current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game.’
According to his projections, Florida and Mississippi State have the best odds of earning an opening weekend win – with both schools having a win likelihood of 99%; while Auburn has the longest odds of starting the season on the winning side – the Tigers have only a 23% chance of winning against Clemson Week 1.
Auburn, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt are the only SEC teams projected to lose to begin the season.
Also of note, the projections call for Georgia (vs. North Carolina), Alabama (vs. USC) and LSU (vs. Wisconsin) to all win by double digits against Power 5 opponents.
Sept. 1 – Thursday games
Tennessee is projected to beat Appalachian State by a score of 32-17. The Vols’ win likelihood is .844 (84%)
South Carolina is projected to beat Vanderbilt by a score of 22-18. The Gamecocks’ win likelihood is .620 (62%)
Sept. 3 – Saturday games
Georgia is projected to beat North Carolina by a score of 30-18. The Dawgs’ win likelihood is .773 (77%)
Alabama is projected to beat USC by a score of 32-17. The Tide’s win likelihood is .835 (84%)
Southern Mississippi is projected to beat Kentucky by a score of 28-27. The Eagles’ win likelihood is .501 (50%)
Mississippi State is projected to beat South Alabama by a score of 43-10. The Bulldogs’ win likelihood is .990 (99%)
West Virginia is projected to beat Missouri by a score of 20-19. The Mounanteers’ win likelihood is .500 (50%)
Texas A&M is projected to beat UCLA by a score of 24-23. The Aggies’ win likelihood is .527 (53%)
LSU is projected to beat Wisconsin by a score of 34-14. The Tigers’ win likelihood is .894 (89%)
Arkansas is projected to beat Louisiana Tech by a score of 43-19. The Hogs’ win likelihood is .938 (94%)
Florida is projected to beat Massachusetts by a score of 43-0. The Gators’ win likelihood is .990 (99%)
Clemson is projected to beat Auburn by a score of 33-21. Clemson’s win likelihood is .772 (77%)
Sept. 5 – Monday game
Ole Miss is projected to beat Florida State by a score of 26-24. The Rebels’ win likelihood is .570 (57%)
The complete breakdown of the Week 1 game projections can be found here.