Analyzing each College Football Playoff contender after Week 6 in the SEC
It figures that the biggest story of this college football weekend involved a star who didn’t play.
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is in isolation and sitting out at least 2 games after a positive COVID-19 test. The Tigers felt his absence on Saturday as they had to rally from a 28-10 deficit to defeat unranked Boston College.
Top-ranked Clemson is likely to miss him even more for this week’s ACC clash at undefeated Notre Dame. Coach Dabo Swinney already announced that Lawrence, who feels fine according to Swinney, will miss that game while he undergoes mandated protocols.
But that’s not the only issue facing Clemson, as you’ll see.
Clemson, Alabama and Ohio State continue to dominate the conversation surrounding the CFP — but of course, should Notre Dame beat Clemson, the Fighting Irish will have a signature win.
We will finally see the Pac-12 this weekend, and at that time we’ll add 1-2 teams from the league to this list — for the last time, we’re not including teams that we have not seen yet. Also worth repeating: No. 6 Cincinnati and/or No. 9 BYU are very unlikely to make the Playoff unless they get a lot of help, regardless of where they’re ranked now. Oh, and Oklahoma State’s loss to Texas drops the Cowboys out and probably ends the Big 12’s bid at a CFP spot as well.
Here’s a look at the CFP contenders in order of the current Associated Press poll. A reminder, the first CFP rankings come out in late November.
Clemson
The burden of replacing Lawrence at quarterback fell to freshman D.J. Uiagalelei against BC, though Clemson smartly leaned on Travis Etienne (20 carries, 84 yards) in some crucial situations. It’s tough to say what the long-term impact of Lawrence’s absence will be, but what is certain is that Uiagalelei will be facing a whole different test against Notre Dame and their defensive line, which ranks in the top 10 in the nation in four categories, according to Football Outsiders.
Alabama
The loss of injured receiver Jaylen Waddle will surely be felt as the season goes on, but against Mississippi State on Saturday it just meant more targets for DeVonta Smith. And Smith went off for 203 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns on 11 catches. Alabama leads the nation with 47.2 points a game, but the defense might be the bigger story, allowing just 41 points in three games since getting torched against Ole Miss.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes got through a road test at Penn State on Saturday and seem to have assembled a roster than can run the table in the Big Ten. One concern for OSU was that the big home-run threat of J.K. Dobbins in the backfield would be impossible to replace, and in a way it has been. Master Teague and Trey Sermon are alternating at running back, and they combined for 166 yards on 36 carries against the Nittany Lions, but OSU is still rushing for a pedestrian 4.5 yards per carry.
Notre Dame
Opportunity might have presented itself in South Bend. With Clemson missing Lawrence, the Fighting Irish might be tempted to lean on their 11th-ranked rushing defense to slow down Etienne and dare Uiagalelei to beat them. The bigger question might be if the Notre Dame offense can be explosive enough. Ian Book has just two 300-yard passing games in his past 17 outings, and, no matter how good ND’s defense is, the Irish might need to win in a track meet.
Georgia
This offense simply has not looked the part of a CFP contender lately. A fierce defense will carry the Bulldogs as far as they will go — with the critical matchup against Florida looming, we’ll see if that’s to the SEC Championship Game and beyond. The good news is, the Dawgs are No. 1 in the SEC in rushing defense and total defense. The offensive line is in the top 20 in five categories, but, as always, UGA fans can only wonder what they’d have if Justin Fields had stayed as QB.
Texas A&M
The Aggies have the second-best rushing defense in the SEC (104.8 yards per game) but had a tough time handling Arkansas, allowing 222 yards on 42 carries to the Razorbacks. That was the most rushing yards the Aggies had given up since Mississippi State gained 239 in October 2019. A&M is really putting things together on offense, with a nice 6.6 yards per play average and a level of consistency (each game over 325 yards) that should keep A&M contending.
Florida
Coach Dan Mullen and his crew came out swinging after a coronavirus-imposed three-week break. Literally. The brawl against Missouri at the end of the first half might have bolstered team unity, but it won’t do any favors to an already depleted defense if any key players get suspended for the Georgia game. It’s all or nothing for Florida: Either beat the Dawgs and hold the key to an SEC Championship Game berth, or lose and pretty much forget about a CFP bid.
Wisconsin
The Badgers can only hope for good health right now. Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez said Saturday that 12 players and 10 staff members have tested positive for COVID-19, leading to the cancelation of Saturday’s scheduled game against Nebraska. Florida has had their season disrupted by coronavirus, but, even assuming everybody fully recovers, the situation is even more impactful for Wisconsin’s CFP chances because there’s no margin for error in the Big Ten’s schedule.
Yeah so A&M is not a playoff contender
Did you go to UT or tu?
They’re both UT, University of Tennessee and University of Texas at Austin
Man, now you make sense. Just another sip troll.
XD love seeing this loser poorly attempting to bash A&M on every playoff convo.
I know you girls want badly to be relevant in the SEC,,, it ain’t happening,,,, no time soon.. LSU,,,, Auburn,,,, and of course will prevent that,, as they have since Aggies came in… Truth hurts
Bama
XD love seeing this loser poorly attempting to bash A&M on every playoff convo.
love seeing a team with half the national titles and not ONE since 1939 call us losers
1) A&M is currently a playoff contender.
2) Tennessee wouldn’t be a contender to win the AAC.
1. No they are not because both the SEC champion and the SEC championship runner up would be higher ranked than A&M
2. You’re definetly right
What makes you think the runner up would be higher ranked then a one loss TAMU? The only way that would be possible is if the East contender won the Conference…
That’s not likely…
If Florida wins the East and then proceeds to get blown out in Atlanta, TAMU would have a strong argument for a playoff spot.
Would they get obliterated? Probably, but the long and short of it is that enough teams in the West (Auburn & LSU) have fallen apart that their consistency elevates them into CFP territory.
A&M do have chance, they are likely to be ranked higher than the SEC runner up, especially if that runner up is Florida.
I don’t mean a one loss SEC team is guaranteed to be in top 4, but having a solid chance means A&M is a contender
A&M is not a playoff contender (sorry mlgl, first time I’ve made the comment). The only way A&M has a chance is if Bama loses 2 games. They will not get a backdoor 4 seed if they win out. Cincinnati or even BYU will get in if Bama is in the playoffs over A&M.
In AP poll, maybe Cincinnati or BYU will be ranked higher, but the playoff committee values SOS much more which means it is impossible they will rank Cincinnati or BYU higher than a one loss SEC team
Cincy’s and BYU’s resumes, even if undefeated, would not look better than a 9-1 A&M with the only loss being to Bama at Bama. They’d have an even better chance if Florida represents the East in the SECCG and loses to Bama. All of that will matter to the selection committee so in that regards, A&M is a playoff contender.
Now, are they a contender on the field? That’s a different question. I’m not sure there’s enough talent for them to swing a 28 point defeat to a one point victory, even at a neutral field. So they can’t beat Bama. Doesn’t mean they aren’t a playoff contender. Would they be favored over OSU or Clemson? No. Still doesn’t mean anything? The real question that would answer if they were a contender is simply, would you take them over the rest of the field? If so, they’re a contender. If not, they aren’t.
#18, Thou art Wrong.
If A&M wins out, they should be in playoffs.
I think we clip them tho.
AU’s starting to round out. Unfortunately too late. Even if Auburn wins out, bama’s not losing outside of the IB.
I reluctantly agree. I’m really starting to fear Auburn suddenly. Y’all’s defense is really good and getting better. By the time we’re in Auburn, Alabama they’re probably going to be playing lights out. Now it seems ol’ Gus and the boys are figuring it out on offense. Two weeks ago I wasn’t afraid of Auburn at all. Now I’ve realized that if we show up there on the last game of the regular season at 8-1 then I’m probably going to have to be there, because it’s probably going to feel like the biggest Aggie game in like 20 years.
Don’t freak out. It was LSU. State beat them.
I’m far from freaking out, i4bama. I know, because I’ve freaked out, before.
Just be mindful of them War Eagles, dude. I am.
If A&M wins out they will not and should not make the playoffs. It will be:
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma State/Oregon/Georgia unless Florida beats Alabama
That seems pretty silly. The Aggies have as good of a shot as anyone to get the fourth spot if they run the table.
SEC runner up or a 1 loss OSU Big 12 champion, or undefeated Oregon would have a better case
The problem with that is I don’t think Oregon will be undefeated or that OS has only one loss when it’s time to pick playoff teams..
Agree with BamaTime, those last 2 things are unlikely to happen. Comparing to SEC runner up, this is debatable.
I would say, if A&M wins out, they still need some help, but looks like a solid chance
The conference championship game loser isn’t necessarily the conference runner up. They are just the team that won their division and then got beat in the CCG.
Where the hell are those Indiana Catholic boys in your postulation, DieselNova?
“Outside of the IB”? Ok. Cool. Hook ’em.
It will take some pretty unlikely scenarios for A&M to end up in the playoffs.
And I think after coming off a loss at Alabama, auburn will show up and beat jimboob so it won’t really matter at that point
If my Ags are still a one loss team when we get to Auburn then, yeah, that one’s going to be for some marbles (on our end, anyway).
If anything, Florida’s defense got restocked. Now they have the bodies on the interior D to operate a normal formation. Running the ball on them won’t be anything close to the cakewalk it was for their opening opponents.
Campbell looks pretty good. We will have to have him in check.
umm yall forgot coastal carolina! kidding, but go chants. on a serious note, probably should have at least mentioned cinci or maybe byu. This is a weird year and either team might actually be able to sneak in if they catch a few breaks. If there is ever a year for a non-P5 team to make it, it feels like this would be the year!
I disagree. Even in this misfortunate year neither BYU nor Cincinnati is going to make the playoff cut whether either or both of them go undefeated. The facts remain that they won’t have beaten anyone worth mentioning, and a one loss SEC, ACC, Big 10, and even Big 12, team will look better to The Playoff Committee.
…I’ll reply to myself (won’t be the first time):
If I was on The Playoff Committee then I would take an undefeated BYU and/or Cincy over a one loss PAC-12 team.
I would PROBABLY take an undefeated BYU over an undefeated PAC-12 team.
If an undefeated Oregon, for example, gets in over an undefeated BYU then it will be time for Archie Bunker’s great reckoning whereby God uses an earthquake to saw California off the continent hereby killing off 50 million weirdoes.
in other words the pac-12 just doesn’t play decent football
“Hello, I’m the dead horse! Keep beating me up please!”
Would all the SDS staff please quit with the Justin Fields narrative? It’s in the past. Please stop.