Assessing the CFP threat level: Spots still up for grabs in final week
Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)
This weekend was calm outside of the SEC.
UCLA lost whatever pipe dream it held regarding the College Football Playoff, while Baylor held off Texas Tech despite a concussion for Bryce Petty.
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Florida State, Alabama and Oregon will make the College Football Playoff by winning their respective conference championship games.
From there, Ohio State — without QB J.T. Barrett — has the best chance, assuming it can beat Wisconsin. Even with a one-loss Big Ten champion, TCU and Baylor figure to be in the conversation as well, each potentially closing the regular season at 11-1.
Scanning The Good Guys: The SEC will enter the final week of its regular season with one strong College Football Playoff contenders.
Mississippi State lost two of its last three games, including the Egg Bowl to Ole Miss on Saturday, and barring some championship-weekend chaos, the Crimson Tide is the only SEC team that will get a College Football Playoff bid.
Now for the terrorists.
THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE
Severe risk of terrorist attacks.
Florida State: At this point it would seem anti-climactic for the Seminoles to lose to Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game. If Florida had a decent offense, the Gators would’ve converted three first-quarter Jameis Winston interceptions into touchdowns and sent FSU tumbling while Will Muschamp rode off the field on the shoulders of his players. Instead, Jimbo Fisher quietly remains one of the best head coaches in college football. With the Marshall loss, Florida State is the only FBS team without a loss in 2014.
Oregon: With all respect to Melvin Gordon, Marcus Mariota wrapped up the Heisman Trophy on Saturday with six touchdowns. Mariota has thrown for 36 touchdowns against two interceptions, and ran for another 11 scores. Even without its star tight end the Ducks offense is as explosive as any in the country at this point. It’s tough to see Arizona winning the rematch in the championship game, and Oregon is destined for the playoff.
TCU/Baylor: Without Bryce Petty (concussion), can the Bears beat No. 12 Kansas State (9-2, 7-1)? Even if Baylor manages, it seems likely that TCU gives the Big 12 its best chance at the playoff. Baylor merely survived against Texas Tech on Saturday, with a 48-46 win. The Horned Frogs thrashed Texas on the road on Thanksgiving. If TCU repeats that feat at Iowa State, there’s a strong chance the team could be fighting with Ohio State for the fourth and final playoff spot.
THREAT LEVEL: HIGH
High risk of terrorist attacks.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes got terrible news when freshman QB J.T. Barrett broke and dislocated his ankle, leading to immediate surgery. (His recovery will make next season very interesting. If he’s a healthy Heisman finalist, will Ohio State make him the backup to fifth-year senior Braxton Miller?) This week, we’ll see how the College Football Playoff committee factors Barrett’s injury, but if the Buckeyes manage to beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship without him, we could see coach Urban Meyer against Nick Saban in the national semifinals.
THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED
Significant risk of terrorist attacks.
Arizona: The Wildcats already beat Oregon — in Eugene. QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson are just freshman. Assuming Rich Rodriguez sticks around (which he may not), the Wildcats are primed for some huge offensive outputs in the next two seasons. But with the Ducks now playing much closer to their best since losing that game earlier this year, is that enough to keep up in what will likely be a game in the 30s or 40s?
Wisconsin: Minnesota managed to slow Melvin Gordon for the better part of two quarters Saturday, but it cost the Golden Gophers so many defensive resources that even Joel Stave was able to rack up a few long passing plays. If Ohio State gets a lead, it may be tough for the Badgers to come back, given their horrible situation at quarterback (though it has improved with Stave’s health). But this team is good enough to beat a wounded Buckeyes group, and could help put TCU into the College Football Playoff.
THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED
General risk of terrorist attacks.
Memphis: Did anyone other than professional gamblers, Ole Miss fans and athletic directors with potential football openings know anything about this team before this week? The Tigers, courtesy of a 7-1 conference record, won the American Athletic Conference. With Marshall and Colorado State both falling in upsets this weekend, the team came within a Boise State loss of a probable New Year’s Six bowl. If coach Justin Fuente has any sense of basic economics (buy low, sell high), he’ll try to parlay this season into a bigger job or a sizable pay raise.
Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets pulled out a sloppy classic against Georgia on Saturday to add insult to injury after the Bulldogs missed out on an SEC East title. Georgia Tech held up much better at the line of scrimmage than I expected and really limited Nick Chubb after the first 20 minutes or so of game time. Paul Johnson was on the hot seat entering the year and lost his quarterback to a transfer in the offseason. He’s done a terrific job. But we all know how the ACC championship plays out, right? The Yellow Jackets will lead Florida State at some point Saturday, and then Jameis Winston and FSU will find a way to win their 29th consecutive game.
THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Low risk of terrorist attacks.
SMU: The Mustangs will be out of their misery soon enough. After a 35-9 loss to Houston, Connecticut gets the honor of putting this team under on Saturday. One loss away from 0-12, there’s hope in rumored new coach Chad Morris, the long-time hot young offensive coordinator at Clemson.
Purdue: Other than a somewhat miraculous win against Illinois, the Boilermakers went 1-7 in Big Ten play, including a final-game loss to previously-winless (in conference play) Indiana. Oh, if only Drew Brees would return!
Colorado: When the Buffaloes jettisoned athletic director Mike Bohn and football coach Jon Embree a few years ago, this isn’t what the university had in mind. Yet here we are. CU lost to CSU and coach Jim McElwain, then went 0-9 in Pac-12 play. This team won a national title in the 1990s. Yikes.
Notre Dame: Remember when the Fighting Irish were one blown call away from knocking off Florida State to get to 7-0? Well, that didn’t happen, and Notre Dame is 1-5 in its last six games. Everett Golson has regressed (seven TDs, seven INTs in the last four games) and better competition has exploited a bad defense. USC embarrassed the Fighting Irish, 49-14, to end Notre Dame’s regular season.