Betting Stuff: Beamer Ball, Aggie optimism, and my favorite SEC win totals in 2024

If someone knows how to fast-forward to August so the new-look SEC can debut sooner, let the rest of the class know. Oklahoma and Texas join the league this fall, making the most entertaining conference in football even more so.

The league looks loaded. Georgia and Texas are Playoff favorites. Alabama will be must-watch every step of the way as Kalen DeBoer tries to follow in Nick Saban’s footsteps. Ole Miss is looking to take the next step. Missouri is looking to prove last year’s success wasn’t a flash in the pan. Oklahoma and Tennessee are in that next tier hoping blue-chip youngsters at quarterback can set the conference on fire. Florida’s season, regardless of how successful, will be the kind of spectacle you can’t peel your eyes off of. We’ve got storylines galore.

And spring ball is getting started around the league to help clarify the picture.

Sports bettors can get a jump on the action with preseason win totals from FanDuel. Here are my favorite bets right now.

South Carolina — Under 5.5 wins (+102 at FanDuel)

Last season, South Carolina won when it was supposed to win and seldom put up a fight in the games it was expected to lose. As a favorite, the Gamecocks went 5-0. As a dog, they were 0-7 straight up and just 2-5 against the spread. That was with a fifth-year senior quarterback and one of the conference’s best receivers.

In 2024, I’ve got Shane Beamer’s group as a favorite in just four of its 12 regular-season games — Old Dominion, Akron, Vanderbilt, and Wofford.

The schedule is unkind. In Week 2, the Gamecocks play on the road. In Week 3, they host LSU. After an early bye, they play four games in five weeks against Ole Miss, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide and Sooners will both host South Carolina. The Gamecocks also have to play a Missouri team I like and a Clemson team it has lost 8 of 9 to on the road.

Beamer brought in the nation’s ninth-ranked transfer class to help plug the holes. That group included a pair of quarterbacks who will vie for the job following the departure of Spencer Rattler — former Auburn and Oregon passer Robby Ashford, and former Oklahoma quarterback Davis Beville.

It’s likely, though, that neither of the hired guns actually wins the job. Buzz out of Columbia is the coaching staff views redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers highly. After just 3 appearances and 4 pass attempts as a true freshman, it’s fair to wonder what the floor is with such a young quarterback against this schedule.

Ashford’s addition provides South Carolina with a change-of-pace option who can hurt defenses with his legs. In 22 career games for the Tigers, Ashford had 926 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. He’s a legitimate weapon if deployed in the correct way.

But young quarterbacks need time to work into a rhythm. Confidence is always a fickle thing, and two-quarterback systems just don’t work. Ashford’s package could be sold as a mechanism to take pressure off the young Sellers. But putting him in obvious passing situations more often could have the exact opposite effect.

You’d feel better if there was proven and reliable skill talent around the quarterback position, but South Carolina has had to reload there as well this offseason. According to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, South Carolina returns 63% of last year’s production in 2024 — a mark that ranks 59th nationally. Most of that is on defense. The juice is gone from the offense.

In addition to Rattler, South Carolina has to replace Xavier Legette — its breakout star in 2023 — Ahmarean Brown, Juice Wells, and Mario Anderson. Legette was the SEC’s second-leading receiver last fall. Brown and Wells were Week 1 starters at wideout. Anderson was the only running back on the team with more than 150 rushing yards last year.

While there’s promising young talent here, there are entirely too many questions on the offensive side of the football.

Texas A&M — Over 8.5 (+114 at FanDuel)

Duke outperformed its preseason win total in each of Mike Elko’s 2 seasons with the program. In 2022, the Blue Devils were one of the biggest surprises in the sport, surging to 8 regular-season wins, a Military Bowl victory, and the program’s best overall season in a decade. Over the last 3 years, only 2 Power programs overachieved more than Duke. And, during that same time, only 1 Power program failed more to match preseason expectations than the team Elko is now in charge of.

On the surface, 8.5 feels like a big number for the Aggies. Jimbo Fisher’s tenure ended in spectacular fashion, but the team he left behind is a good one.

A&M is 18th nationally in returning production. That’s from a team that ranked fourth nationally in the 247 Talent Composite last season. And the incoming transfer class that Elko has added to the foundation ranked second in the country. Elko proved himself a winner at Duke, succeeding with a talent disadvantage. Now he’s got all the talent he could dream of.

The Aggies return their top 3 running backs and 4 of 5 starters along the offensive linemen (6 of their top 7 snap-getters in the group as well). Losing Evan Stewart to the transfer portal hurt, but there’s proven depth in the room to ease any concerns. Grand Valley State transfer Jahdae Walker had 590 yards in his first year with the program, ranking second on the team. This offseason, Cyrus Allen (Louisiana Tech) and Jabre Barber (Troy) joined the program after combining for 121 catches, 1,777 yards, and 9 touchdowns at their respective schools last season.

If the quarterback stays healthy, we’re looking at a potentially exciting season in Year 1 under Elko.

Connor Weigman is a special quarterback when he’s healthy.

A foot injury last September ended Weigman’s season after 4 games. The former 5-star recruit from Bridgeland, Texas, was a Freshman All-America in 2022 after starting 4 games and setting an A&M true freshman record with 338 yards in his first start against Ole Miss. Through his first 4 games of the 2023 season, Weigman threw for 979 yards with 8 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.

Weigman posted QBRs (scored 0-100) of 96.7, 85.1, and 97.1 in his first three games of 2023. He had a passing grade of 90.8 last season from Pro Football Focus, which was the fourth-best among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. If Texas A&M gets him for a full season, it’ll have a top-10 player at the position.

All the pieces are in place for offensive coordinator Collin Klein to put together an impressive unit this upcoming season.

Related: Sports betting will be live in North Carolina soon! Residents can get in on the action with FanDuel North Carolina.