Big Ten expansion means revenue estimate spikes, especially with the College Football Playoff, per report

The Big Ten expansion will unleash a cascade of revenue spikes around college football, and one estimate already puts a price tag on the move.

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports reported that Southern Cal and UCLA moving to the Big Ten immediately elevates the previous $1 billion annual revenue estimate to at least in the range of $1.28 billion to $1.6 billion. What’s more, the College Football Playoff annual average value is in the neighborhood of $600 million.

With the @bigten going to 16 those estimates of $1 billion annual revenue have to be readjusted. Assuming USC and UCLA bring at least pro rata, the estimates now have to be $1.28 billion-$1.6 billion per year. The entire CFP is worth an AAV of $600 million.

— Dennis Dodd (@dennisdoddcbs) July 3, 2022

The Associated Press reported last month, before the expansion was announced, that ESPN’s current deal with the CFP pays about $470 million per year. ESPN has separate contracts with the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls that up the network’s total layout to more than $600 million annually to be the television home of college football’s most important postseason games.

However, revenue is one of the issues still to be decided during CFP negotiations.

How revenue would be distributed in a new model was not part of the detailed proposal the CFP unveiled last month, and the proposed 12-team model is still steps away from final approval from the university presidents and chancellors who oversee the CFP. Also, the current TV contract with ESPN runs through the 2025-26 season. Until then the CFP cannot take its new format to market.