CFB Insider: Perfect scheduling. Pruitt in trouble? Can Auburn really win West?
Each week, Matt Hayes uses his sources around the country to bring you insider knowledge about what’s going on in and around the SEC ahead of this week’s games.
This is what he’s hearing from coaches and NFL scouts in Week 5 …
8 is great for conference schedules
The addition of numerous Power 5 home and home nonconference series over the last year isn’t as random as it looks.
One industry source says the SEC is “trying to will” the rest of the Power 5 conferences to schedule accordingly. The Pac-12, Big Ten and Big 12 all schedule 9 conference games and 3 nonconference games. The SEC and ACC play 8 conference games.
The SEC formally told its member schools 2 years ago that every schedule needs at least 1 Power 5 nonconference game a season (Notre Dame and BYU are considered Power 5 games). Since then, many SEC teams are adding 2.
“The dream scenario, I think, for the SEC is for everyone to come to their plan: 8 conference games and 2 Power 5 nonconference games,” the industry source said. “I know they’ve talked about it at the commissioners’ meetings, but I don’t know how much traction is there.”
That’s why, the source said, SEC schools are expanding their nonconference schedules.
Florida alone – which hadn’t gone West of the Mississippi for a home and home series since the early 1980s (USC) – added home and homes with Texas, Colorado and Utah. The Gators also play Florida State every season.
The overriding theme, the industry source said, is strengthening the product and generating revenue. When asked what “strengthening the product” means, the industry source said, “I think it’s fairly obvious what part of that is – expanding the Playoff.”
College football already is dealing with the unavoidable: the ease of sitting at home and watching games on a 70-inch television in the comfort of your own home and not dealing with traffic, costs or lines. Additionally, fans simply aren’t traveling to games and filling large stadiums, paying top dollar for tickets and buying apparel when the opponent is Towson. If the opponent is Texas, that’s a completely different story.
Those marquee nonconference matchups could also strengthen College Football Playoff résumés – and long term, be the impetus to expanding the 4-team tournament.
When I asked SEC commissioner Greg Sankey this summer about a new scheduling philosophy, he said maybe the best idea isn’t the SEC (and ACC) moving to 9 games. “
“Maybe 8 really is the best number for all (Power 5 conferences),” Sankey said. “There’s a lot of flexibility with 8.”
The Big Orange roadmap
In the past 2 days, I’ve talked to 2 sources close to the situation at Tennessee and both say it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
But – and here’s the critical disclaimer — that doesn’t mean Vols coach Jeremy Pruitt is out of a job by the end of this season.
“What message does that send? Not just to the players, but to our fans and any coach who might be interested?” one source said. “Sure we need help – but you’re not getting the time to make it happen. You’re going to be on a short leash like the other 4 guys before you. Then you’re constantly reinventing the wheel.”
Another source said it would take a “colossal collapse” before there could – “I’m stressing, could,” he said – be momentum for change. When asked what that collapse would look like, the source said, “losing every SEC game.”
The buyout for Pruitt and coordinators Jim Chaney and Derrick Ansley is nearly $15 million.
The weekly grind
The question swirling around the SEC: Can Auburn really win the conference by running the ball and playing elite defense?
“How crazy would that be?” an SEC coach told me last weekend. “They’re not going to scare you in the pass game, but boy, that power run game is impressive. I think (QB Bo) Nix will get better throwing with accuracy, but what he has now is the ability to extend (plays) and get those bonus yards.”
In 4 games, Auburn has nearly double the number of rushes (192) as passes attempted (107). The Tigers have rushed for more than 1,000 yards (1,038) and are averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Gus Malzahn is back calling plays, and that means the run game is center stage once again. The two most successful seasons at Auburn with Malzahn calling plays were 2010 (when he was offensive coordinator and Cam Newton was the QB) and 2013 (his first season as head coach with Nick Marshall at QB).
In 2010, Auburn’s run/pass ratio was 652-to-296, and the Tigers ran for 3,987 yards and 41 TDs. In 2013, the ratio was 729-to-285, and Auburn ran for 4,596 yards and 48 TDs.
They’re on pace this season to reach those raw numbers – if they play more than 13 games (see: SEC Championship, CFP).
Another SEC coach thinks Auburn will eventually run into a defense that, at minimum, will force Nix to make multiple throws to win the game. Texas A&M tried it, and Nix was spotty – and Auburn still won going away.
Florida next week? “Not that defense,” an SEC coach said. “They’re not thick and physical enough up front, and other than (David) Reese, those linebackers are questionable.”
LSU or Alabama: “Definitely. I’ll take either one of those two (over Auburn). But when you can play defense like Auburn can, and you can force mistakes and give your offense short fields, every game is within reach.”
Bruised and Blue
Michigan’s offense is a mess, and suddenly Jim Harbaugh’s inability to find the right system/coach in his return to college football has become an open sore of criticism.
“It’s hard for me to watch that team,” an NFL scout told me this week. “I know what Jim is all about. He’s a bright offensive mind, always has been. But they’re a mess right now in executing offense.”
The sticking point in all of those big game disappointments (1-9 vs. Top 10 opponents, 0-7 as an underdog, 1-6 on the road vs. ranked opponents) is the team’s inability to not only score, but control the clock and dictate the tempo. The very thing Harbaugh’s teams did with such success when he coached at Stanford in the 2000s.
He finally gave in this offseason and hired former Alabama assistant Josh Gattis to renovate the offense and bring it into the 21st century. But that, too, has been problematic.
Despite the criticism of Gattis and his play calling, the reality is he’s still working with personnel that was recruited to run a different offense. The RPO sets don’t magically become second nature for players; they have to be learned and executed over and over until those critical, split-second decisions are like taking a breath.
That’s why it looks so disjointed. That’s why it looks like quarterback Shea Patterson is lost. It also doesn’t help that the offensive line is struggling to run block and pass protect.
Look for former 4-star QB recruit Dylan McCaffrey to get more snaps in the RPO-based offense — Gattis believes he’s the perfect fit for the system and one of the team’s best athletes — moving forward.
The only holdup: McCaffrey sustained a concussion last weekend against Wisconsin, and is doubtful for this week’s game against Rutgers.
So Floridas defense isnt good enough to stop Auburns run game but LSU is? Lmao
Que Captain Caviot…
The offensive firepower of the Commodores is nothing to laugh at, sir.
Your funny I do remember when yall thought it was a cupcake game in BR last year lol. That game kept yall out of the CFP
Who the heck thought it was a cupcake game?
Yeah, honestly neither you or LSU has a defense. I’d be praying for your offensive line if I were you.
Auburn isnt that good yall barely beat Oregon. I mean really. If you think yall gunna have success in the run game on LSU lol its gunna be along night for yall. Texas is better than yall an look what happened in their house.
Florida has a pretty solid defense. We’ve had a few injuries but we should have everyone back for the Auburn game. It’s not like Auburn’s offense scares me they haven’t been that great yet this year especially passing the ball which is UF and LSU defensive weakness. LSU puts up points fast and idk how Auburn is going to contain them enough to win
It’s called defense
I wouldnt laugh to hard remember yall have to come to BR this year and looks like its gunna take 50 points or better to stay with our offense and that wont happen. So savor the flavor for now because when yall come to Tiger STADIUM yall gunna need yall big boy pants on to stop our offense. lmfao
Sorry but Florida’s defense is head and shoulders better than any defense LSU has faced this season. The highest ranked defense they faced was powerhouse Georgia Southern at 80th in total defense. I hate to break it to you, but they won’t be scoring 50 or better against the Gators. I think LSU fans are getting a little too confident about what their offense is doing against terrible defenses. That would be like a Gator fan thinking Franks was going to win the Heisman last season after throwing for 5 TDs in the first half against Charleston Southern.
Buts it’s not like UF has played any great teams either. We definitely haven’t played anyone with an offense like LSU. Should be an interesting game
I think Auburn can win the SEC West. The only question is: Can Auburn beat LSU in Baton Rouge? Auburn hasn’t won at LSU since 1999. In all fairness, Auburn lost to LSU in 2013 and 2017, but went on to beat Georgia and Alabama later on in both seasons. I’m really looking forward to how the SEC West will play out with Alabama, Auburn, and LSU.
Agreed
I think Auburn should be ranked 4. Clemson 1 Bama 2 LSU 3 Auburn 4 Ga 5.
If you’re ranking teams based on who they beat Auburn should probably be number 1
UF isn’t man enough to stop either line of scrimmage against Auburn. I feel sorry for Trask. His online is gonna be manhandled.
Did you see Florida play Miss State last year. Quick passes neutralized their great D line. We will see in two weeks.
Did you see that game? Florida won because they kept an inept offense out of the endzone. They had a few chunk plays and were able to score eventually because states offense couldn’t sustain a drive. That is NOT a good comparison.
I’ve never seen a team’s wins get discredited as much as Florida’s. Mullen masterfully called that game offensively. The play calling made that front 7 defend horizontally, making them run sideline to sideline for 2 & 1/2 quarters … that vaunted DL was absolutely gassed the last quarter & 1/2. It was a beautifully called game.
It’s not like Auburn has a really good offense though. I think it’s a great comparison. Auburn has an elite defense with an average Offense like MSST or LSU last year
Upstategator having you figured it out by now? The Gators don’t win any of their games, it’s the other team always giving it away. It’s a common theme with all the delusional posters on this website.
*haven’t
That offense wasn’t even close to average. Y’all scored a td in the 3rd not fourth. I’m not discrediting florida, they found a way to get yards but au offense isn’t going let you have 3\4 of the clock like we did. Any defense get s gassed likethat.
I like Florida but they are about to get murdered by our Dline and I don’t think it’ll be pretty.
Their offense is trash. I like the Tigers in that game. Gonna be tough for Bo in the Swamp. Defense is gonna win that one.
Agree with this. I think UF vs Auburn will be a defensive battle
One thing our o-line seems to be doing pretty well is pass blocking, so we’ll see about that one AuburnRX. If the Gators can score through the air, will Auburn’s run game be able to keep up? Should be an interesting game that’s for sure. Home field advantage might be the deciding factor in this one.
That and Florida has a solid run defense
I mean Texas a&m had a great rush defense but after this past weekend they dropped down the list. But knowing Auburn im always worried they will drop the ball metaphorically and literally.
I’m not saying UF wins I think Auburn is a stout team but I wouldn’t just chalk it up as an automatic win for Auburn
Oh yeah its definitely not a free win either team has to earn the win so I agree on that.
The exciting thing about 2019 is we are just not going to know how these teams match up till they play 60 minutes against each other. I think Missouri can improve enough every week to run the table.
Technically, that’s every year, not just 2019. I’m assuming your last sentence was a typo or something.
The meth epidemic is real is Mizzouri. Put it down Wolfe.
What’s up with the piece on michigan ?
Who??
Hey hey hey!!! Easy on Towson! That’s my second favorite Tigers!
Actually, Towson is one of the best FCS programs in the nation. Their coach Rob Ambrose continues year in and year out to field competitive teams in a state where kids hold lacrosse sticks before watching their first Ravens game. And the men graduating from that program have their heads screwed on straight. I’d rather see Mizzou play Towson than just about anyone in the LIL XII. (This message brought to you in part by a grant from the University of Towson-kidding but it sounds like it!)
It’s what Gus knows and he’s circled back. In 2013 Auburn ran a double/triple run option, like a service academy, except with more athletic talent, gassing opposing defensive depth by the third quarter and giving spoiled SEC “speed defenses” fits. Actual RPO? Not quite. Think Army.
I’m actually more concerned about Miss. State this week then I am about Florida next week. Florida appears over rated to me although they have improved some since losing Franks.
They wont be able to run on Auburn and their young O line will get dominated in this game.
On the other hand MSU dominated Auburn last year. I’m hoping it will be enough motive for them to not look past MSU.
I hope your program feels the same way. Come to Gainesville with no worries.
So let me see if I can summarize the group-think on these comments:
1. LSU has the greatest offense ever (even though it’s largely the same roster as last year, just running different plays).
2. Auburn’s running game is going to gas Florida’s defense (even though Florida constantly rotates the two deep on the defensive line, and a defense getting gassed is usually a function of its own offense not being able to stay on the field).
3. Auburn’s defense is going to kill Trask (even though pass blocking is one thing the Gator’s offensive line has done quite well, and Perine has been excellent in picking up blitzes and stunts).
4. Florida’s offense won’t be able to run the ball against Auburn (this may well be true; although, as other posters have noted, Mullen will just use quick passes as a de facto running game if this turns out to be the case).
It’s a good thing we get to actually play the game.
5) who has Florida actually played to have comparison stats with Auburn? I’ll wait…
No comparison. UF sucks and Auburn will win the west. Gainesville will be a cakewalk next week.
Ignore the noise, stay the course! Pruitt isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.
You can’t fire Pruitt as long as Chad Morris is still at Arkansas. But both programs are train wrecks. Neither one were ever as good as they think they were. Fulmer backstopped Johnny Majors to get the head coaching job and then got lucky because Alabama and Auburn were down. Arkansas only won the west for the same reasons. Alabama and Auburn were down. Petrino got the Hogs in the top 10 but they were no threat to Alabama. The only chance Tennessee and Arkansas have of getting back to respectability is to Hope Pruitt and Morris can do it. If they fire these two guys after just two years, it not only sends a bad message to possible replacements but it will set the programs back another 6 or 7 years. If they can’t do it, the programs are 10 years away.
Cmgator: I didn’t see Florida play Mississippi State last year. But I saw them get whipped by Missouri.