Assessing the CFB Playoff threat level: SEC facing stiff competition
As the crisp autumn air transitions into a blistery winter in many of the non-SEC states, the threat to the good guys making the College Football Playoff continues to rise. There are still 14 unbeaten teams in the country, creating added pressure for the selection committee and an uphill climb for one-loss SEC programs.
In the current landscape, there is no dominant team in college football. There is a batch of talented squads that could beat one another on any given night, making the run toward the College Football Playoff dramatic and unpredictable.
Scanning the good guys: Heading into week 8, No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Alabama clearly stand at the forefront in the SEC. They are legitimate contenders for the CFP in January. But can they both actually make it?
I think it will be a tough road. If LSU wins the Nov. 8 showdown, the Crimson Tide will face elimination with two losses. If Alabama wins, the plot only thickens.
Florida remains on the cusp with just one loss, but the Gators appear to be trending downward with the suspension of starting QB Will Grier. Don’t get me wrong, Treon Harris played a decent game on Saturday in a boisterous Death Valley environment, but his accuracy and inability to play from the pocket continues to trigger major concerns.
THREAT LEVEL: BLIZZARD
Better head to the grocery store, a severe storm is on its way
Ohio State: The Buckeyes aren’t going to be tested much in their next three games with matchups against Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois, which have combined for 11 wins so far this season. But hey, what else is new? Have they really been tested all year? If Ohio State knocks off both No. 7 Michigan State and No. 15 Michigan in their final two games, they are surely a lock for the committee. Even if the Buckeyes lose one of those two, there is a solid chance they will still hang around in January.
Baylor: The Bears have a tough schedule in front of them, but it is hard to see their high-powered offense slowing down. After cruising past sub-par opponents to start the season, Baylor was finally validated by pummeling a skilled West Virginia team, 62-38. It will be interesting to see how Art Briles’ squad emerges from a brutal three-game stretch with a home game against No. 17 Oklahoma followed by back-to-back road trips at No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 4 TCU. Baylor is playing with a chip on their shoulder after feeling shafted by the committee a season ago. I don’t see it happening again.
Utah: Kyle Whittingham’s Utes have been impressive to say the least. Of the top three teams, they have the most impressive resume with wins over No. 15 Michigan, No. 20 Cal and Oregon. The next month will be a huge test for Utah, as they square off against USC, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona and UCLA. The Utes have already proven that they can hang with the best in the country, and if they win out, there is no denying them a shot in the CFP.
THREAT LEVEL: MAJOR STORM
High chance of 6-10 inches of snow
TCU: While No. 4 TCU is sitting just one spot in front of LSU in the AP Poll, I still don’t see them as a severe threat. The Horned Frogs haven’t beaten anyone of significance, and have a brutal remaining schedule with two road games at No. 14 Oklahoma State and No. 17 Oklahoma before closing out the season with a home matchup against No. 2 Baylor. In all honesty, LSU should be ahead of them in the AP Poll.
Clemson: Now this is a team that is scary, and presents a legitimate threat to both LSU and Alabama. The No. 6 Tigers have a convincing win over Notre Dame, and their only other major challenge for the rest of the season will come in a home game on Nov. 7 against No. 9 Florida State. Clemson’s offense is thriving under QB Deshaun Watson who boasts a 157.2 quarterback rating. The Tigers should be representing the ACC in January.
THREAT LEVEL: FLURRIES
General risk of snow
Michigan State: Somehow, some way, the Spartans continue to find a way to come out with wins. So far, they haven’t proven themselves as a playoff contender but remain in the conversation. I don’t see them knocking off No. 1 Ohio State on Nov. 21 which would eliminate them from the CFP. But then again, anything can happen. Did you see how they won on Saturday?
Florida State: The Seminoles haven’t faced any top tier opponents, and still struggle to find a way to win games. With road matchups against No. 6 Clemson and No. 13 Florida over the next month, the likelihood of the Seminoles making another trip to the CFP is slim. I think they are one of the weakest of the undefeated teams, and that will be exposed in the second half of the season. Yes, because of Jimbo Fisher and their track record they remain a risk, but I wouldn’t worry too much if you’re an SEC fan.
THREAT LEVEL: CLOUDY
Small chance of precipitation
Stanford: Stanford has been hot as of late, coming off of an emotional win over UCLA last Thursday. But don’t kid yourself, Kevin Hogan isn’t Andrew Luck and sophomore tailback Christian McCaffrey’s breakout performance came against a Bruins defense that allows 215.8 rushing yards per game. The nation is high on David Shaw’s team right now, but they already have one loss and games against No. 20 Cal and No. 11 Notre Dame to close out the regular season.
Notre Dame: There is no denying that Brian Kelly has worked wonders this season as his team has faced injury after injury. If Notre Dame could have pulled off a win in Clemson,we may be talking about a CFP run, but it doesn’t seem possible at this point in the season. The Irish will still face No. 10 Stanford, No. 22 Temple and No. 25 Pitt. It’s probable that they will lose at least one of those, knocking them out of contention.