
Early impressions of every Week 4 matchup in the SEC
And just like that, we’re on to Week 4.
I’m pretty sure that it’s been scientifically proven that time goes faster in the fall. Personally, I believe we should be searching for ways for time to stand still.
Some SEC programs probably wish that they could do that. Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Georgia and Mizzou are the conference’s last remaining unbeaten teams. Life is good. For others, they probably wish that they could fast forward to the good part.
All 14 SEC teams are in action in normal time in Week 4. Here are some early thoughts on those matchups:
Auburn vs. Texas A&M — The difference could be a healthy Evan Stewart
He sat out the Louisiana-Monroe game with a minor injury, which made it seem like the star A&M receiver should be ready to roll against Auburn. He better be. Eugene Asante and that Auburn defense are going to try and rush Conner Weigman as much as possible. The A&M quarterback needs a safety valve, and he also needs someone that he trusts to go make a play in single coverage. That’s Stewart, who has 257 receiving yards even though he missed a juicy matchup vs. ULM. Auburn hasn’t faced a passing game with anything close to what A&M has. We’ll get reminders of that if Stewart is at full go.
Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt — Ah, the Ray Davis game
Last year at Vandy, Davis went for 129 rushing yards in an upset win against Kentucky. It’s what prompted Mark Stoops to pursue him in the transfer portal. Now on the Kentucky side, look at the start that Davis is off to compared to Vandy’s running back room:
Ray Davis (3 games): 379 yards from scrimmage on 7.1 yards per rush, 15.9 yards per reception, 5 total TD
Vanderbilt tailbacks (4 games): 399 yards from scrimmage on 4.4 yards per rush, 3 total TD
— Adam Luckett (@AdamLuckettKSR) September 18, 2023
Davis has been as good as advertised in the post-Chris Rodriguez era. Against his former team, I would assume that he’ll be a massive part of the game plan. Vandy’s run defense has been brutal so far this year. Making Davis the high-volume player in Kentucky’s offensive game plan could be the difference in getting some revenge after last year’s stunning loss in Lexington.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama — Talk about 2 QB rooms going in opposite directions
Here’s a question I’ve been wondering about for the last 48 hours. How many of Ole Miss’ quarterbacks would start at Alabama right now? All three? It’s at least 2, and then maybe you could debate Jalen Milroe vs. Walker Howard. That’s telling. It’s telling that Alabama struggled to put away a USF squad that had lost 19 consecutive games against FBS competition. I would assume that Jalen Milroe will be the guy after he gave way to a Tyler Buchner-Ty Simpson tryout of sorts. Whoever the guy is could have to keep pace with Jaxson Dart, who leads the SEC in quarterback rating AND he’s the team’s leading rusher. As in, the team with preseason All-American running back Quinshon Judkins.
If Alabama’s quarterbacks struggle against a Pete Golding-led Ole Miss defense, well, let’s just say calls into The Paul Finebaum Show will be electric on Monday.
UTSA vs. Tennessee — This has to be a bounce-back week for the Vols’ run defense
Lost in the shuffle of that frustrating loss wherein the Vols had too many penalties — and didn’t exactly get the benefit of the doubt on some other instances — was how bad the run defense was. After allowing 2.4 yards/carry through the first 2 weeks, the Vols were gashed for 183 rushing yards in The Swamp. A far less experienced Florida front pushed them around in the first half, and it made that deficit too much to overcome. Against a UTSA squad that should be overmatched, Tennessee cannot afford to come out flat. It wasn’t long ago that UTSA was viewed as a tricky matchup coming off an 11-win season.
Arkansas vs. LSU — Thoughts and prayers to Hogs’ offensive line vs. Harold Perkins (again)
Goodness, Sam Pittman should be worried. The Hogs couldn’t slow down that BYU pass rush. I have far less confidence that they’re about to go into Death Valley and slow down Perkins, who finally got to rush the passer 17 times against Mississippi State. His transition to an off-ball linebacker has been a steady progression, but one would think that a year removed from completely taking over that game in Fayetteville, DC Matt House is going to cut him loose to make sure that KJ Jefferson is harassed all game. Arkansas is going to have to get awfully creative to find ways to prevent Perkins from taking over once again.
Charlotte vs. Florida — Is there going to finally be a shift in backfield carries?
I hope so. I don’t say that as a dig at Montrell Johnson Jr., who is an excellent player. But we saw on Saturday night why Trevor Etienne is different. He had 23 carries for a career-high 172 yards while Johnson was held to 23 yards on 12 carries, though he did have a touchdown both as a runner and as a receiver. It was only the third time in Etienne’s young career that he got more than 11 carries in a game. Through 3 games, Etienne only played in 4 more snaps than Johnson. Someone, Johnson actually played 2 more snaps than Etienne against Tennessee, but this is all about workload distribution. It’s no longer an excuse to say that Johnson knows the scheme better than Etienne. Maybe we’ll start to see Etienne start to get more of the carries in a favorable matchup against Charlotte.
UAB vs. Georgia — Let’s just assume UGA’s offense is going to sleepwalk through the first quarter
Through 3 games, Georgia outscored its opponents 10-7 in the first quarter. Mind you, all 3 of those opponents entered Sanford Stadium as 4-touchdown underdogs (or more). The slow starts have been frustrating. A lack of downfield shots, a lack of identity in the ground game and a lack of rhythm from Carson Beck all contributed to that. I wouldn’t expect that to suddenly change against Trent Dilfer’s UAB squad. Maybe that comes with the territory when you’re the 2-time defending champs and you’re playing in lopsided September matchups. Or perhaps we’re seeing a UGA team struggle to find the best ways to use these new pieces on offense, and injuries to guys like Ladd McConkey and Kendall Milton contributed to that.
Whatever the case, don’t be surprised if and when UGA is up 3-0 heading into the second quarter on Saturday night.
Memphis vs. Mizzou (in St. Louis) — The most Mizzou thing ever would be laying an egg
I’m not trying to be mean, Mizzou fans. But consider this. The Tigers picked up their best, most dramatic win of the Eli Drinkwitz era, and did so in front of a sellout crowd at Faurot Field. It got Mizzou unofficially at No. 27 in the AP Poll (second in “receiving votes”). I realize that Mizzou isn’t in the AP Top 25 yet, but that certainly looks like it’s up for grabs against Memphis. Here’s your rundown of Mizzou games played as an AP Top 25 team against Power 5 competition in the past 8 seasons:
- 2015 at Kentucky: L, 21-13
- 2018 Liberty Bowl vs. Oklahoma State: L, 38-33
- 2019 at Vanderbilt: L, 21-14
By the way, those 3 teams that Mizzou lost to went a combined 6-19 in conference play in those respective seasons. Technically, losing to Memphis wouldn’t count in that stat, but it would feel very Mizzou-like with the way things have gone since 2015. Alternatively, beating Memphis to get into the AP Top 25 … and then losing to Vandy would be the most Mizzou sequence ever.
Mississippi State vs. South Carolina — This is a high-pressure game for both new OCs
This would be a bad night to have a bad night. I’ll just say that.
Kevin Barbay’s offense has been Woody Marks and not much else. We’re living in a world in which Mississippi State is No. 117 in passing. The transition away from the Mike Leach Air Raid has been a major uphill climb. Sooner or later, things need to start clicking or else Barbay will be 1-and-done in Starkville. As for South Carolina OC Dowell Loggains, he’s dealing with the task of trying to keep his improved quarterback upright. Spencer Rattler has been excellent. That offensive line has not been excellent outside of that first half against Georgia. This is a favorable matchup for both new OCs. The one who ends up on the losing side will have an awfully low approval rating heading into the meat of the schedule.
Not surprised UT’s offense got dominated by UF’s defense. The line has always been suspect. Extremely disappointed in the defense. They played poorly and the tackling was atrocious. The coaching staff better be hard if they don’t want to be defined by this one game.
“Auburn hasn’t faced a passing game with anything close to what A&M has. ”
TAM will beat AU no doubt.
It’s hard to take someone seriously who makes a CFB projection and says there’s “no doubt” about the result. We’re still watching games played by kids who do things all the time that they’re not expected to do.
With that said, I’m interested to see how the Aggie defense stacks up against Freeze’s version of Thorne. The mobility is something we haven’t really seen from him until this past Saturday. It’s a new wrinkle that makes him much better along with his team. Auburn’s OL is definitely improved, but they need continuity.
I’m also interested to see how Auburn’s vaunted defense stacks up against A&M’s offense. Weigman has the #2 QBR in the country after 3 games and has at least 5 WR options who could start on most teams, so Auburn’s best chance to slow him down is to pressure him a lot. Let’s see how much our OLine learned from Miami because that’s likely to determine the game. We’ll also need to see if the Auburn defense can get their best corners on the field for this game – they’ll need them.
I’ll be there to watch your “no doubt” projection go down in flames.
Err, I’ll be there to watch your “no doubt” projection…get upheld…SDS needs an edit button.
No doubt.
“I’m also interested to see how Auburn’s vaunted defense stacks up against A&M’s offense.”
Vaunted? I’d say “untested.”
Like I’ve posted many times, it will take Freeze 2-3 years to get “his team.” Right now this team is a bunch of bandaid transfers.
I expect LSU to pin their ears back and dominate. I wish the Hogs well, but not this weekend. LSU by 3 TDs.
I have this weird feeling that Kiffin lets another golden opportunity slip through his fingers in the last 5 minutes of the game after Milroe pulls his best Jekyll and Hyde impersonation.
It’s probably better than we’re not quite ranked BECAUSE of that ridiculous stat. Not that a stat like that holds any future projective properties to it whatsoever anyway. Beat Memphis and get ranked, beat Vandy after being ranked and I guess we need to find a new “Mizzou” stat.
I’m glad we aren’t ranked, keep that chip on our shoulder mentality (the nobody respects us motivation).
It’s true, we have a history of playing down to our competition when playing inferior teams and letting those teams hang around has cost us in the past. Drink did a great job last year keeping the locker room focused and motivated last year after bad losses; let’s see how we handle a little success.
MIZ!
Only way Auburn has a chance against A&M is if they get everyone back healthy (not likely). They are really banged up in the secondary and on the OL. As many as 6-7 starters could be missing.
You have some really good corners that have been out. Could be precautionary, knowing they wouldn’t really be needed last week. We were down 2 OL starters this past week and a couple of WR. I’m really hoping they’ll be back, but it’s good to see some of the others get a chance to step up. Should be a good game ether way. Hard to get a bead on what Freeze will do with Thorne. He’s seemed a little bit different and a good bit better each week so far.
Gig ’em
If Jimbo/Petrino can’t beat a misfit AU team, TAM really needs to figure out how to get rid of Jimbo. There’s no excuse. Last years AU team was awful and they still managed to beat TAM.
Man, I really like Auburn as a school and a fan base, but A&M’s loss to Auburn last year was perhaps the most frustrating game I’ve ever watched. That was terrible, to see our team get outcoached by an interim coach offering nothing more complex than “go get ’em” as a strategy. I tend to be a “glass is half full” kind of guy, but even I’m taking it week by week this year.
” I really like Auburn as a school and a fan base, but A&M’s loss to Auburn last year was perhaps the most frustrating game I’ve ever watched.”
AU rallied around Caddy after Harsin was fired. That was a very strange game for sure. TAM should have blown AU out of the water.
The story line of Bama vs Ole Miss makes it probably the most impactful game of the week. Will Bama really start off the season 2-2 with Saban at the helm??? How many of us would have predicted that?
I also really want to see what changes MSU makes after the LSU game. Rogers is an extremely accurate QB in the right system, but he was so out of sorts this past weekend that he couldn’t hit open receivers even when they were…like, really open. I think he’s better than that, and I think their defense should really be able to get after the opposing QB. Will this be a statement game for MSU to stop the bleeding?
I expect Zack Arnett to prove that he’s as dumb as his offense vs. LSU suggested. If he continues to squander Will Rogers’ talent on the altar of a pro-style offense, Ole Miss fans can get behind that.
Mississippi State needed home field advantage, 4 INT’s, and OT to beat Arizona…
we already know everything we need to know about Mississippi State…
they aren’t very good; LSU confirmed that last week!
Zack Arnett is no Mike Leach…
we miss you, Mike; we truly miss you!
I think Milroe gets the start for Bama. As an Ole Miss fan I’m worried about his running ability more than passing. Ole Miss has always gotten punished by dual threats from the draw or simply pulling it down after the defense gets no pressure then runs it for a 1st down time after time. Always seems to happen on crucial 3rd downs and I’m worried that will be the case this weekend as well. I still have Ole Miss by a field goal or a touchdown.
As far as State goes, I think Arnett’s system is horrible for Will Rodgers. If the offense doesn’t change it up from a pro style then it’s going to be a long season for them. I see Arnett being out after a couple of years if this type of play continues.
I thought Arkansas would be better than they showed in this last game. I had them in the middle of the West, but they look to be serious competitors with MSU and Auburn at the bottom. MSU and Auburn were expected with new coaching staffs. Arkansas has no excuse.
Dwight McGlothern and Landon Jackson can’t be all over the field defensively for them. Catalon transferring to Texas hurt them immensely. They have no threat at WR either that will open the defense up.
Perkins and our DL is gonna feast.
“MSU and Auburn were expected with new coaching staffs. Arkansas has no excuse.”
Can’t argue with that. Arkansas was projected to have a good year.
Look how Ed Orgeron took LSU to win a championship by going 15-0. After the coordinators left, he struggled to find a good replacement and that cost him his job two years later.
Sam Pittman is heading to that direction right now.
The honeymoon is definitely over by now.
“Look how Ed Orgeron took LSU to win a championship by going 15-0. ”
Yeah but Arky hasn’t been anywhere near that level. Coordinators leaving is something every HC has had to deal with. Saban did it best.
Agree, they should be better than the way they’ve been playing. Could we be seeing seeing a negative impact in the transition to various new coordinator hires across the SEC?
Replacing coordinators isn’t always smooth and can be risky. I have trouble believing the players aren’t making an effort for Pittman. More likely, they’ve lost some good players, and others just aren’t quite on the same page as the new OC and DC.
We’re definitely seeing that at MSU and Bama and probably also seeing that at UGA.
We’re about to knock the alphabet right out of Charlotte when they leave Gainesville they will be known as Harlot.
Boom!
Connor, here’s an even more typical thing that happens in the SEC, one or two teams get praised even when they look ridiculous…. and the cowardly SEC media kiss up to their perceived special golden boys because they are not football savvy enough to see what’s going on in the new year by week 4. You’re weak Connor. You are hereby demoted from permission to write about Missouri football for the rest of the year, may the football gods have mercy on your soul.