ESPN's Bill Connelly shares SP+ projections for the SEC's Week 6 games
One of the weekly analytics breakdowns comes from Bill Connelly of ESPN, who offers the SP+ projections each week around college football.
In the SEC, Connelly’s computer model sees mostly lopsided scores across the league, except the “SEC on CBS” game is listed as a tie for LSU and Auburn at 29-29. Before rounding, LSU is given a slight edge, 29.1 to 28.6. Last week, SP+ was 20-24 against the spread, and that dropped it to 96-91-2 for the season.
Despite having three weeks between games, SP+ lists Florida with an 87 percent chance of beating Missouri, and the projected score is by 20 points. That would be a surprise to public perception, which holds that Missouri has momentum following a methodical win over Kentucky, and the Gators have been knocked out of their routine as they dealt with a COVID-19 outbreak in the program.
Week 6 SP+ projections in the SEC:
Georgia 31, Kentucky 14
Ole Miss 35, Vanderbilt 19
Alabama 44, Mississippi State 16
LSU 29, Auburn 29
Texas A&M 36, Arkansas 16
Florida 37, Missouri 17
🥶☃️ WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS 🧊😓
* Big games: Cincy 32, Memphis 26; Ok St 32, UT 26; Oh St 34, PSU 24; LSU 29.1, Aub 28.6
* (No, there is no “no Mertz” adjustment in the Wisconsin projection)
* After 2 straight “good, but not as good as Vegas” weeks, the slump ends! Maybe! pic.twitter.com/YtCRnS0NM2
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 28, 2020