In Week 6, it’s safe to say the marquee matchup in the SEC is No. 7 Auburn at No. 10 Florida. The showdown in The Swamp is expected to be a tight game. Elsewhere around the SEC, there’s a heavy favorite in every other game involving a conference team.

ESPN’s Football Power Index, explained below, provides a win probability for every game.

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.

Here is the FPI’s predicted win probability in every SEC Week 6 game:

  • LSU (95.9 percent win probability) vs. Utah State
  • Auburn (53.2 percent) at Florida
  • Missouri (95.2 percent) vs. Troy
  • Georgia (91.3 percent) at Tennessee
  • Ole Miss (69.5 percent) vs. Vanderbilt