ESPN's FPI predicts the outcome of every SEC Week 10 game
It’s Rivalry Week in the SEC, albeit incomplete. When the SEC remade its 10-game conference-only schedule, the folks in Birmingham opted to keep rivalry games on Thanksgiving Weekend instead of moving them to the last week of the regular season (Dec. 5).
COVID, however, got in the way of making it a complete conference rivalry week. Arkansas was unable to play this week, causing the Battle Line Rivalry game with Mizzou to be postponed. The SEC surprised many by also postponing Tennessee-Vanderbilt and having the Commodores instead play Mizzou. The move would appear to be focused on Eli Drinkwitz’s squad still being in the SEC East title hunt, though a longshot from making it to Atlanta. The Tigers would need Florida (6-1) and Georgia (5-2) to drop multiple games to take the division crown.
Alabama is the SEC West leader. Even against a ranked opponent (No. 22 Auburn), the Crimson Tide is heavily favored to win according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
The FPI predicts the winner of all 6 Week 10 games:
- Florida (90.2 percent chance to win) vs. Kentucky
- Mizzou (88 percent) vs. Vanderbilt
- Alabama (92.2 percent) vs. Auburn
- Ole Miss (68.2) percent vs. Mississippi State
- Texas A&M (75.6 percent) vs. LSU
- Georgia (89.4) percent at South Carolina
Here is ESPN’s definition of the FPI:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.