ESPN's FPI predicts when every SEC undefeated team will lose
Entering Week 7, four SEC teams are undefeated: Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU. One of the four will fall on Saturday when LSU takes on Florida and at least one more is guaranteed to fall in November as the division rivals (Alabama-LSU; Florida-Georgia) face off.
ESPN’s Football Power Index is updated on a daily basis and offers a projected outcome for every game. With projected outcomes for all four teams’ remaining games, here’s when the four undefeated teams are projected to notch their first loss:
- Alabama: N/A – 70.7 percent chance or better to win all seven remaining regular-season games
- Florida: Week 7 at LSU (24.0 percent chance to win)
- Georgia: N/A – 53.6 percent chance or better to win all seven remaining games
- LSU: Week 11 at Alabama (25.9 percent chance to win)
It comes up from tiem to time that ESPN’s FPI ratings often differ from media polls. The FPI, for instance, still ranks Auburn higher than Florida despite what happened in Gainesville. The FPI predicts that Auburn will be the most challenging remaining game for both Alabama and Georgia.
ESPN’s explanation of the FPI:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.