The SEC’s 10-game, conference-only schedule is officially set for 2020. With the increase in conference games and lack of “cupcakes,” SEC fans might not see any teams get double-digit victories in the regular season. At least that’s what ESPN’s Football Power Index is projecting.

The World Wide Leader has updated its simulation-based rankings with the 2020 schedule. The FPI projects Alabama will lead the way 9 wins in 2020. If we have a postseason with bowl games, things could look very different for the SEC. Only 6 of the 14 teams are projected to go .500 (5-5) or better. The FPI sees Kentucky as the next team closest to making a postseason game.

Here are the projections for all 14 teams:

  1. Alabama: 9.0-1.6
  2. Georgia: 8.2-2.5
  3. LSU: 7.9-2.4
  4. Auburn: 7.0-3.1
  5. Florida: 7.4-2.9
  6. Texas A&M: 6.2-3.8
  7. Kentucky: 4.5-5.5
  8. Tennessee: 4.0-6.0
  9. Ole Miss: 3.9-6.1
  10. South Carolina: 3.7-6.3
  11. Missouri: 3.2-6.8
  12. Arkansas: 2.1-7.9
  13. Mississippi State: 2.5-7.5
  14. Vanderbilt: 1.3-8.7

Here’s how ESPN explains the FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

The full FPI for all conferences can be seen here.