ESPN's SP+ projects the score of every SEC Week 10 game
We’ve reached Week 10 of the SEC season. While this year’s Thanksgiving Weekend is not the final week of the regular season, the conference decided to keep rivalry clashes like the Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl attached to the holiday weekend.
The conference is on track for six games as Arkansas is unable to play due to COVID issues and Vanderbilt had its opponent switched from Tennessee to Missouri. ESPN’s Bill Connelly shared the SP+ score projections for all six games.
- Florida 40, Kentucky 19
- Mizzou 34, Vanderbilt 16
- Alabama 40, Auburn 20
- Ole Miss 36, Mississippi State 27
- Texas A&M 37, LSU 24
- Georgia 34, South Carolina 16
For those unfamiliar with SP+, Connelly defines it as a predictive metric of efficiency:
What is SP+? In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
More than ever, it’s important to note that SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you’re lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you’re strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.
Bettors pay particular attention to SP+. The metric is historically above 50 percent against the spread. Connelly shared Sunday that SP+ is sitting at 53.4 percent ATS for the season (191-166-6).