Extra Points: A crazy SEC scheduling quirk, Notre Dame on upset alert and more
CFB insider Matt Hayes tackles the biggest topics ahead of this weekend’s college football slate.
Commonalities in the SEC
Here’s a rarity in the race for the SEC title: There are numerous potential common opponents between the respective (inevitable) division champions Alabama and Florida.
When Florida plays host to Kentucky this weekend, it will be the 5th common opponent with Alabama, including Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri and Georgia.
The teams also play Tennessee, Arkansas and LSU. Florida has already beaten the Hogs; Alabama plays at Arkansas Dec. 5. Alabama already has played Tennessee, Florida has not. Both teams still have a game scheduled with LSU.
That’s 8 common opponents. In nearly every SEC season since the first championship game in 1992, the common opponents for division winners are typically between 2-4 teams.
A look at the common results between Alabama and Florida (so far):
- Ole Miss: Florida won 51-35 (at Oxford); Alabama won 63-48 (at Oxford)
- Texas A&M: Florida lost 41-38 (at Texas A&M); Alabama won 52-24
- Missouri: Florida won 41-17; Alabama won 38-19 (at Missouri)
- Georgia: Florida won 44-28 (at Jacksonville); Alabama won 41-24
Northwestern and the inevitable
We could try to explain the Big Ten tiebreakers to you, or you can read it here. Or it can be as simple as this: If Northwestern does this weekend what typically hasn’t done of late – avoid a confounding loss to a team it has no business losing to – the Wildcats can all but clinch the Big Ten West Division.
Northwestern is a 13.5-point favorite over a Michigan State team whose only win is over rival Michigan. A Michigan State team that has scored a combined 34 points in 3 losses to Rutgers, Iowa and Indiana.
A Michigan State team that hasn’t yet faced a defense like Northwestern.
“This is a really good team, a really good defense. They’re playing good, smart football,” Michigan State coach Mel Tucker said of Northwestern.
But it’s also a Northwestern program with a history of strange losses. It all sets up for an intriguing weekend this weekend in East Lansing.
The Wildcats are coming off a natural letdown from last week’s critical win over Wisconsin. Michigan State has had an extra week of preparation after Maryland had to cancel last week’s game because of positive COVID tests.
Most teams this season play well after a COVID break, and many coaches have told me it allows players to mentally recharge and reset after grinding for weeks to reach and maintain COVID protocols. Michigan State is desperate and has had 2 weeks to prepare.
Now, among those weird losses for Northwestern:
— 2018: Losses to Duke and Akron in a season that included a B1G West title and a Holiday Bowl win over Utah.
— 2017: Loss to Duke in a 10-win season.
— 2016: Back-to-back losses to Western Michigan and FCS Illinois State with a team that eventually won a bowl game.
Beating Northwestern means getting smart play from the quarterback position. Since beating Michigan in late October, Spartans QB Rocky Lombardi has 0 TDs and 5 INTs, and was benched 2 weeks ago in a loss to Indiana.
One other thing to consider: in Tucker’s 2 seasons as a head coach, he has 6 wins – and 3 against ranked teams (2 in 2019 at Colorado).
UNC’s big challenge vs. Notre Dame
While we all wait for a likely Clemson-Notre Dame rematch in the ACC Championship Game, don’t ignore what could happen this weekend in Chapel Hill, N.C.
The Tar Heels can throw the ball as well as anyone in the nation, and if there’s one weakness in No. 2-ranked Notre Dame’s defense, it’s coverage in the back end.
Or as one NFL scout told me this week, “If North Carolina can protect, (UNC QB Sam) Howell will have a field day against that secondary.”
The problem: UNC hasn’t exactly done a sterling job of protecting Howell this season. In 8 games, UNC is 109th in the nation in sacks given up (22), and there have been many more pressures.
But if he has time … in the last 2 games alone, Notre Dame has given up 439 yards to backup Clemson QB D.J. Uiagalelei and 272 yards to Boston College QB Phil Jurkovec.
Jurkovec isn’t at the same level as Howell, and Uiagalelei – while uber-talented — hasn’t seen nearly the defensive looks that Howell has. And Howell, like Uiagalelei, has an elite run game to provide dynamic ability and balance.
It’s impossible to discount a quarterback (Howell) who has played in 21 career games, and has 61 TDs – or about 3 a game. Or an offense that has 102 touchdowns – 4.85 per game — in the same span.
“I don’t know if (UNC) can avoid getting mauled,” an ACC coach told me. “Notre Dame is physical. They’ll impose their will on you. Two different styles, and (UNC) needs to get it into a track meet. They can’t get bogged down with trying to slug it out.”
The BYU question
BYU is in the middle of its best season in years and has an elite top-5 NFL Draft pick in QB Zach Wilson.
And now, because of the impact of COVID, the Cougars, who play as an FBS independent, have no chance to prove their worth compared to Power 5 teams.
Before the shakeup of the season (and elimination of most Power 5 nonconference games), BYU had a schedule that included games against Utah, Michigan State, Arizona State, Missouri, Stanford and Boise State.
The schedule post-COVID isn’t remotely as attractive, with BYU’s best game against Boise State (without injured QB Hank Bachmeier).
BYU coach Kalani Sitake says BYU will play anyone, and it’s still possible to schedule a game against Pac-12 teams that lose games because of COVID protocols (Washington nearly happened this week). The Cougars have open dates Dec. 5 and Dec. 19.
The natural fit is Cincinnati, currently ranked No. 7 in the CFP poll. Both the Bearcats and BYU need an important nonconference game to support their résumés, and both have Dec. 5 as an open date.
Dec. 19 is out for any legitimate nonconference add for BYU because it’s championship week for the 10 FBS conferences.
Here’s my answer to the “BYU question”. I dont care…..period. Why does the sports world keep apologizing for the BYU’s, Boise State or UCF.
A lot of people like to see the underdog win. I realize that may be foreign to Bama fans.
Bayou, that made me literally laugh out loud.
As a Bama fan from decades ago I strongly support the Tide. But, glad, you might want to look at teams like BYU and Cincinnati for more than a passing glance. Cincinnati has a dual-threat QB who would probably run for 150 yards on the Tide defense and he’d double that in passing yardage. Just show them a little respect. Remember, the Tide can be beat. Think of the Iron Bowl last year.
In 1921 and again in 1925, the Rose Bowl opponents had not faced a common opponent.
Why does Texas A&M not try and schedule a game on Dec 19th against BYU? They wont be playing. Not a troll, just a fact. They could use a bump in the rankings. There was an article a few weeks ago saying they should schedule Cincinnati in an open week and we could settle some debates on the field. Not sure bc of games getting postponed if that is possible now, or if A&M would agree to a neutral site game. Teams on the fringe and who may need help should be looking at this unique opportunity and try and earn their way in, instead of being afraid of losing, bc at the end of the year, they will have to convince the committee they are better than ND or Clemson, or Bama if they get a loss. You needs big wins to do that.
Excellent point but even a win will not give them much respect because it would be against a Group of 5. And, seriously, there’s the fear of losing to someone like Cincinnati.
SEC schedule only this year.
Forgot that obvious point lol. I wonder if they would start making exceptions after they play their SEC schedule if they thought it would help them get in the playoffs.i doubt it, but if Alabama beats Florida then A&M would have a decent shot depending on how the other teams did. I went over Cincinnati or even BYU maybe what gives them the knot over Notre Dame if they have one loss to Clemson in the ACC championship Game. I don’t think someone like northwestern will actually get a shot unless they beat Ohio State. Then there would be some real chaos
I used voice text there and some of that didn’t come out as I thought it did
A&M vs BYU would be a fun game to watch, but I don’t think there’s much else for A&M to gain from it. If A&M wins (and I believe they would), then it’s what they “should” have done as a highly ranked SEC team vs an undefeated independent team with a soft schedule. BYU looks good and Wilson is fantastic, but their schedule just isn’t strong enough for an A&M win over BYU to make any big shifts in A&M’s standings. A loss to BYU, however, would likely decimate A&M’s chances to get into the playoffs OR a NY6 bowl. More to lose than gain for A&M in this case. And no, I don’t mean to imply A&M would be scared or would not win, just not necessarily a smart business decision to risk your season with little-to-no reward.
A&M vs Cincinnati, however, I think could help make a stronger case for the respective winner to be in the final four if both continue to win-out. Cincinnati has faced some tougher competition this year than BYU has, and they are playing consistently well on both offense and defense. I’d love to see that game, though I am quite sure we won’t since Cincinnati will be in the AAC CG on Dec 19. Furthermore, A&M might not get their full slate of SEC games in as it is, and I don’t think the league is going to give up a conference match-up to make a non-conference game happen.
On an unrelated note… Anyone else wish we could boot the PAC from the P5 and put the AAC in instead?
There is not much benefit for A&M. If they win, everyone will say BYU has a soft schedule and is overrated; If they lose, it is a blow for both BYU and SEC.
BYU will love this idea, but they won’t get the chance, sorry
A&M and SEC
Back in the “good ole days” when there were just bowl games, and Notre Dame didn’t even go to them, everybody that went undefeated could stake a claim to the national championship, and nobody seemed to think it was such a bad thing. There were years where exactly 2 teams finished as co-champs, and there was no way for them to play, and everybody always wondered who would win. They both hung banners as champions.
The funny thing is that Bear Bryant called his 1966 team his best one, and that won went 11-0 and gave up 28 points all year to a decent schedule, including a total undressing of Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. And, the Tide finished in third place in the rankings behind the two 9-0-1 teams, Notre Dame and Michigan St., neither of whom went to a bowl. Notre Dame didn’t go to bowls until 1/1/1970, and Michigan St. was not eligible for a bowl back then, because the Big Ten had a crazy rule where a team could not go to the Rose Bowl two consecutive years. 8-2 Purdue, which was slaughtered by MSU in the regular season went to the Rose Bowl and beat USC.
BYU needs to find a conference if they expect to be taken seriously.