Final thoughts (and predictions) for Texas-Arizona State and Georgia-Notre Dame

I get why it was needed, but I didn’t need 10 days between Playoff games.

Maybe some of that was due to wanting to move past the blowout fest that the first round yielded, or maybe that was just having a cadence of meaningful football games on a Saturday that I wanted to continue.

Nonetheless, we get to continue it tonight with the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups. In case you need a refresher of what those look like, here you go:

• Dec. 31, 7:30 pm ET (Fiesta Bowl): Penn State (-11 via ESPN Bet) vs. Boise State
• Jan. 1, 1 pm ET (Peach Bowl): Texas (-12.5) vs. Arizona State
• Jan. 1, 5 pm ET (Rose Bowl): Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon
• Jan 1, 8:45 pm ET (Sugar Bowl): Georgia (-1.5) vs. Notre Dame

Let’s dig into some final thoughts on the 2 SEC matchups:

Isaiah Bond returning for Texas is huge (if he’s actually healthy)

I’ll be honest. I’ve always thought Bond was a touch overrated, and some of that was rooted in his “Gravedigger” heroics in the 2023 Iron Bowl. But even as someone who isn’t quite as sold on his ability to separate, getting Bond back (as Pete Thamel reported) is monumental for Texas.

At times during that first-round matchup vs. Clemson, I thought Quinn Ewers could’ve used another reliable target with Matthew Golden mostly held in check. Texas couldn’t really test Clemson’s secondary in the way that it would’ve liked, though with how dominant the ground game was, that wasn’t quite as big of a factor as the final score indicated.

Against an Arizona State team that was 70th in FBS against the pass, ideally, you’d like your veteran quarterback to attack a potentially vulnerable secondary. At the same time, it’s an ASU secondary that only allowed 5 passing touchdowns in the past 8 games, and BYU’s Jake Retzlaff was the only opposing QB to hit 260 passing yards in that stretch. The Sun Devils’ secondary surrendered just 8 passes of 30 yards in 13 games, which is No. 5 in FBS (just behind Texas).

While Golden has been the better big-play threat, Bond actually led Texas with 13.9 average depth of target, and he only has 1 drop on 52 targets this season. Assuming that Bond is more than just a decoy after his leg was rolled up on during the SEC Championship, he’ll be tremendously important for Texas establishing offensive balance.

Defending Cam Skattebo is daunting, but maybe not as much for Texas

Let me be clear. There will be moments in which Skattebo reminds everyone why he was one of the best players in college football. You’ll watch him drag 5 defenders past a first-down marker. It’ll take an all-hands-on-deck effort just to slow him down.

But dare I say, Texas might have the right DNA to at least make life tougher on the ASU star.

No, that’s not just because the Longhorns stymied a depleted Clemson backfield. It’s a unit that ranks No. 11 in FBS in rushing yards/game allowed and rushing yards/carry allowed. Georgia is the only unit to gain 100 yards against Texas in its past 5 games, and Florida was the only team all season to average at least 4 yards/carry against the Longhorns, though 114 of those 197 rushing yards came after Texas jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead.

Texas didn’t let the offseason losses of defensive line coach Bo Davis (LSU), and defensive line stars T’Vondre Sweat (NFL) and Byron Murphy III (NFL) turn that unit into an Achilles’ heel. Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton have been dominant on the interior, while Anthony Hill Jr.’s nose for the ball has helped Texas avoid any sort of run defense setback. That’s why Texas allowed an FBS-best 4 runs of 20 yards all season.

It’s safe to say that Skattebo will be that group’s greatest challenge to date.

Skattebo has 1,085 rushing yards this season — after contact. He also forced 92 missed tackles. Just for a little perspective, Dylan Sampson won SEC Player of the Year with 929 yards after contact and 70 forced missed tackles. Yeah. That doesn’t include Skattebo’s skills in the passing game, where he was No. 2 among Power Conference running backs with 506 receiving yards. With leading receiver Jordyn Tyson out for the season, Skattebo is also now ASU’s leader in that department. He averaged 14.1 receiving yards after the catch for an ASU passing offense that took off in those final 6 games. During that stretch, ASU had 17 passing touchdowns and averaged 10 yards/attempt.

But if Texas has forced ASU to turn Skattebo into more of a receiver than a runner, that could be playing right into the Longhorns’ hands.

Speaking of that …

Sam Leavitt might’ve given Texas some real bulletin board material

I’m not one to hate on a quarterback for being confident. Leavitt went 11-1 as ASU’s starter and he deserves to feel like he can continue his success against Texas.

Having said that, it was interesting to hear him make the bold statement “I’m gonna go prove why I’m the better quarterback” than Ewers.

Whether Leavitt does that or not, his task is more daunting. He’s facing a Texas pass defense that allowed 4 pre-Playoff passing touchdowns all year. While that group is coming off the first 250-yard performance it allowed to a quarterback season — Cade Klubnik was brilliant for Clemson — it’s still a Longhorns pass defense that ranks No. 1 in FBS with 5.4 yards/attempt allowed, and it’s No. 2 in opposing QB rating (100.4). Texas surrendered 7 pass plays of 30 yards all season (No. 2 in FBS) and it picked off 20 passes (No. 3 in FBS).

If Leavitt can repeat Klubnik’s success, he’ll have backed up his claim. If Leavitt runs into a buzzsaw against a Texas defense that makes life miserable for him, well, he might wish he had that comment back.

And a prediction … Texas 28, Arizona State 24

Texas hasn’t really delivered beatdowns all year. That double-digit spread, via FanDuel might suggest a blowout is imminent, but I’m skeptical that this will be 60 minutes of Texas dominance. Maybe that’s me respecting ASU, or perhaps it’s just acknowledging that the Longhorns haven’t quite had that gear against most of its schedule.

I could see Texas not quite having as much run-game success against an ASU defense that’s No. 27 in FBS against the run, especially with that offensive line more banged-up than it was during the regular season. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Ewers has stretches in which he flirts with disaster. So what does that mean? It means the Texas defense forces a pivotal pick-6 via a Colin Simmons pressure that turns into a Michael Taaffe score the other way.

That gives Texas a 2-score lead in the second half, and instead of feeding Skattebo 30 carries, ASU is forced into more obvious passing situations than it’s had in recent memory. Leavitt is picked off twice, including once on a last-minute drive attempt to win it.

Texas holds on and advances to the Playoff semifinal for the second consecutive year.

Georgia is saying all the right things about Gunner Stockton, but I care more about ___.

“How he processes Notre Dame’s pressure in his first career start.”

That’s going to be the bigger issue for the Georgia quarterback. He’s facing an Al Golden/Marcus Freeman defense that will do everything in its power to disguise looks and bait Stockton into mistakes against that loaded secondary, much like Texas did at times in the SEC Championship. Stockton pulled off the comeback win, but it wasn’t necessarily a passing game performance that suggested he’s ready to carve up the Irish.

Does OC Mike Bobo trust Stockton enough to let it loose? Will UGA dare attack downfield against the nation’s leading in opposing QB rating after its pass-catchers dropped 30 passes in 13 games (via PFF)?

Those will be telling developments. Stockton’s ability to pick up 3rd-and-7 to frustrate the Irish defense and perhaps give the UGA defense a break against that 3-headed rushing attack (more on that in a minute) will be pivotal. One would assume his legs have to be a weapon, both by design and out of necessity. Perhaps that means we see more of those true RPOs wherein Stockton calls his own number. Those were extremely rare with Carson Beck.

That figures to be a nice way to combat some of that pressure. Stockton’s unproven downfield accuracy will likely put plenty of Irish defenders near the line of scrimmage. Can he pick up a corner blitz? Will he recognize zone coverage pre-snap and avoid throwing another one of those horrendous interceptions like we saw against Texas?

Those will have a major say in Stockton’s story on Wednesday night.

The most comforting thought for Georgia’s offense is a healthy Trevor Etienne

The version of Etienne who dominated the second half against Texas after a month-long absence because of a rib injury was the version of Etienne that I thought Georgia would have all season. For one reason or another, that wasn’t the case. But Etienne, who’ll return to the Caesars Superdome in hopes of a better ending than the 51-14 state championship loss he suffered in his sophomore season of high school, can become a difference-maker back in Louisiana.

Etienne wasn’t just the explosive, run-finishing back that UGA needed to outlast Texas. Stockton also targeted him 3 times in the passing game, which could be a much higher number against Notre Dame if Bobo uses Etienne as the check-down option.

What’s comforting was that Etienne looked fresh with a month off. He had a 3-week break after that SEC Championship MVP performance, so one would think his workload won’t have any sort of limitations, though freshman Nate Frazier should still have a change-of-pace role.

Etienne can make Notre Dame’s No. 40 run defense look like the most vulnerable unit on the field.

Then again, you could say the same thing about Georgia’s run defense against Notre Dame’s 3-headed rushing attack …

The least comforting thought for Georgia’s defense …

… Is a bad trend that can continue against Notre Dame’s rushing attack.

What trend? From 2021-23, UGA allowed 16 rushes of 20 yards in 44 games. This season, UGA allowed 15 rushes of 20 yards in 13 games. That speaks to how atypical those run-defense struggles have been.

Against an Irish ground game that ranks No. 3 in FBS with 6.2 yards/carry, that’s troubling. Sure, the Irish have been a bit 1-dimensional with Riley Leonard at quarterback. Wasn’t that also the case for Haynes King and his injured shoulder in the Georgia Tech matchup that went into 8 overtimes in Athens? The Yellow Jackets kept that UGA defense on its heels most of the night. Can Notre Dame do the same after it ran all over Indiana’s No. 1 run defense?

If Leonard does his best King imitation, the Irish are more than capable of stringing together scoring drives and demoralizing the Georgia defense. The late-season emergence of Jeremiyah Love turned a solid rushing attack into a game-changing rushing attack. And even if Georgia contains 1 of those 2, Jadarian Price had double-digit carries in the last 3 games and figures to be an option for OC Mike Denbrock to turn to.

Perhaps the only comforting thought for UGA is that in its 4 games against Playoff teams (Texas twice, Clemson and Tennessee), no rushing offense hit 150 rushing yards and they were held to a combined 1.8 yards/carry with just 2 rushing touchdowns. Mind you, 1 of those 4 games included a showdown against SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson.

But Notre Dame will be a more versatile ground attack than Tennessee, Clemson or Texas. UGA will have its work cut out.

And a prediction … Georgia 21, Notre Dame 20

As much as I banged the drum that this is a tricky, more challenging matchup than plenty UGA fans admit, I keep coming back to this. Kirby Smart is 35-1 vs. non-SEC teams since the start of 2017 and Notre Dame is 3-23 vs. AP Top 5 teams since 1999. Maybe I’ll regret defaulting to history and somewhat ignoring what my eyes have told me about these 2 teams in 2024, but it’s hard to shake the notion that Smart will find a way to win, even with a backup quarterback in his first career start.

I don’t expect that to be pretty. In fact, I think we see Notre Dame lead for most of this game until Stockton’s poise late prevails with a 2-minute touchdown drive to win it. Finally, UGA’s receivers stop dropping passes and the run-defense woes are corrected when it counts late. Notre Dame misses a chance to make it a 2-score lead with a missed kick — something that was an issue during the regular season — and Georgia seizes that window.

Somehow, someway, Georgia does enough to keep its title hopes alive. The dynasty is still in play.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.