I used to hate it.

For about 7 years, I used to tell myself that A&M-Alabama was about to be great. From 2014-20, I went into each of those matchups flashing back to the 2 years we got of Johnny Manziel vs. Alabama. Those 2 games were, for my money, as electric as they come, albeit for different reasons.

We had viral, all-time moments. We had legacy-defining days. We had a buildup to a 2013 game that actually delivered. We had star power. We had unpredictable, awesome showdowns that felt like they were going to be the norm with A&M in the SEC.

And then from 2014-20, we had 7 consecutive Alabama victories that were decided by an average of 25 points. Only 1 of those games (2017) was decided by less than 3 scores.

So yeah, I used to hate how lopsided this rivalry was after it started with 2 years of must-see TV.

But then the past 2 years happened, and we got back to must-see TV with A&M and Alabama. Two games that were decided in the final minute saw a series split. We had a walk-off field goal in 2021 and a goal-line stand in 2022. Never mind the fact that they were both 3-score spreads. Both games delivered.

Now, I hate that we’re not going to get annual Jimbo Fisher-Nick Saban matchups in the expanded SEC, beginning next year.

In the final year of annual Alabama-A&M matchups, the question is if this game, with a 2.5-point spread and both teams considered to be more even than they’ve been in any time post-Manziel, will deliver once again.

Let’s dig into it:

1. Is A&M the best offense that Alabama has seen so far including Texas?

It’s a fair question. Disagree with me? OK, look at the numbers through Week 5:

2023 offenses
Texas
Texas A&M
Scoring/game
36.0
38.6
Passing yards/game
286.6
283
Rushing yards/carry
4.99
4.92
Yards/play
6.89
6.46
20-yard plays
30
27

Nobody is saying that Max Johnson is on the level of Quinn Ewers, and it’s not even fair to say that Bobby Petrino is as good of a play-caller as Steve Sarkisian. But Petrino’s offense resembles a whole lot of what Alabama struggled with in those past 2 matchups. The pre-snap motion, the tempo, the ability to attack downfield … it’s all there with Petrino at the controls.

The interesting thing is that in the past 2 years, it felt like Alabama was caught off-guard by A&M’s offensive game plan. This year, there’s more of a sample size on what A&M would like to do.

Whatever the case, nobody has held A&M to fewer than 27 points. It’s the first time that a Fisher-coached team had 5 consecutive games of 27 points in a season since 2014 Florida State with Jameis Winston. The Aggies have been that solid offensively.

Whether A&M is as good offensively as Texas is debatable, but what’s not debatable is how much Alabama struggled against the Longhorns in Tuscaloosa. That night, Alabama surrendered 349 passing yards and 454 total yards on 6.1 yards per play. Since then, the Tide appeared to have cleaned some things up in the passing game. In that 3-game stretch post-Texas, Alabama allowed an average of 146.3 passing yards and an average of 4.8 yards per pass attempt. Alabama also picked off 5 passes and forced 6 turnovers in those games.

Let’s talk more about one of those matchups, shall we?

2. The strength-on-strength matchup is ___________.

“Kool-Aid McKinstry vs. Evan Stewart.”

It’s one of the best individual matchups in the SEC this season, and for my money, it’ll be one of the best in all of college football. Stewart had his first career 100-yard game last year against Alabama. And while he’s been banged up at times to start the year, when he’s been on the field, he looks like someone who has taken his game to the next level.

Stewart is as good as any receiver that McKinstry will line up across this season, and that includes Xavier Worthy and AD Mitchell. What’ll be interesting to see is if Petrino shifts Stewart across the formation a bit more than usual with McKinstry almost exclusively playing on the outside. Stewart lined up as an outside receiver roughly 3/4 of the time, but he does average about 11 slot snaps per game.

Johnson has been known to keep feeding his top target — go back and watch how heavily he locked in on Kayshon Boutte virtually every time they shared the field at LSU — but that hasn’t necessarily been the case so far with Stewart. Some of that could be related to the depth the Aggies have in the passing game with a healthy Ainias Smith, Moose Muhammad III and Jake Johnson, an emerging tight end and Max’s younger brother.

McKinstry has been mostly good to start the young season. Alabama’s lockdown corner had some tough moments against Texas, but in 32 coverage snaps against Mississippi State, he didn’t allow a single yard (via PFF).

Who wins the Stewart-McKinstry battle on Saturday? Get your popcorn ready.

3. The Texas A&M defense has looked much better post-Miami

They took it on the chin publicly, and understandably so. Tyler Van Dyke looked like he was throwing against an FCS squad that afternoon. Since then, however, the A&M defense has been lights out. The first 2 games vs. SEC competition have been a total turnaround:

  • 30 tackles for loss
  • 14 sacks
  • 9 points allowed/game (removing the 2 non-offensive TDs scored)
  • 3.1 yards/play

You’ll take that all day, every day. That A&M defensive front has been outstanding. Fadil Diggs, McKinnley Jackson, Walter Nolen and Shemar Turner have been a wrecking crew. They entered the season with some lofty expectations and so far, they delivered.

Sure, they were favorable matchups. Auburn’s offensive line didn’t look like it could block a soul, which was bad news for Payton Thorne in his SEC debut. Arkansas’ offensive line had well-documented issues all year, and A&M took advantage of that. Still, it’s been a total transformation to see that group surrender just 94 passing yards/game since the Miami mess.

Now, they’ll face that oversized Alabama offensive line, which has also improved drastically since its Week 2 meltdown. The question is if they’ll revert to the group that was ineffective against Texas when it struggled to protect Jalen Milroe.

Speaking of Milroe …

4. This is an interesting game for Jalen Milroe’s arc

It’s fascinating on a few levels.

Remember last year when Milroe’s first career start came vs. A&M? Alabama entered as a 3-touchdown favorite, and it went down to the wire because of Milroe’s ball-security issues. He turned the ball over 3 times in the first half (2 via strip sack, 1 via interception) and Alabama found itself in a dogfight.

Last week at Mississippi State, Milroe showed promise. We saw the effectiveness with his legs and he didn’t turn the ball over. He continued his frustrating habit of taking too many sacks. In all 4 starts vs. Power 5 competition, Milroe has taken at least 4 sacks. That’s a frustrating trend for an offense that needs to stay on schedule to have success. That can happen via a Milroe sack or if those snap issues continue. Getting into 3rd-and-long situations doesn’t allow OC Tommy Rees to continue to run the football.

Even if Alabama goes run-heavy to try and neutralize the A&M front that gave Milroe issues last year, he still is going to need to make big-time throws with his arm for Alabama to win in a hostile environment.

Here’s the good news for Alabama: Milroe leads the entire FBS in 3rd-quarter QB rating (283.8). As we saw against Texas and Ole Miss, a slow start won’t deter Milroe.

Here’s the bad news for Alabama: Both of those games were at home, and Milroe could have to troubleshoot at a place where A&M has yet to allow a passing touchdown in 180 minutes of football.

Milroe needs to have the best game of his career to walk out of Kyle Field with a win.

5. Is this the SEC West Championship?

Yes, it’s only the first week of October. It feels weird to ask that question knowing that LSU-Alabama is still on the schedule, but consider this: By the time this game kicks off, we’ll know the result of LSU-Mizzou. Even if LSU wins, it’ll still have a loss in SEC play, and to a West team, no less. Two LSU losses in conference play this early in the season would potentially wipe out the Tigers, barring an impressive run wherein they beat Alabama and A&M.

But the winner of this game has such a significant advantage at 3-0 in the conference because all 3 of those wins will have come within the division. Alabama would have 2 wins against a pair of West foes with just 1 conference loss (A&M and Ole Miss … pending the Arkansas-Ole Miss result) and A&M would be the last remaining unbeaten team in the division, at least in terms of conference play. That would essentially give A&M a 1.5-game lead as the midway point approaches.

If LSU loses and A&M pulls off the upset, this would be the Aggies’ best SEC position since it joined the conference in 2012. Remember, the hay was already in the barn for that Manziel game at Alabama in 2012 because the Aggies had 2 losses. For a program that has never played in a conference title game in the 21st century, A&M has an outside chance to go to bed on Saturday night feeling as good as it has in quite some time.

Alternatively, Alabama could win and we’ll again feel like the path to Atlanta is paved in Crimson.

And a prediction … Alabama 24, A&M 21

I’m going with Alabama on a walk-off field goal to win it. You know, the inverse of what happened the last time that these teams faced off at Kyle Field.

Why? I think Alabama’s defense and Milroe’s poise is the difference down the stretch. I can close my eyes and picture Aggieland rocking late. A&M has the ball in the middle of the 4th quarter with a touchdown lead, and it’s starting to feel like another upset is brewing.

But then Johnson forces a throw that gets picked off and Alabama scores a game-tying touchdown with a short field. An A&M 3-and-out gives the ball back to the Tide, who march down the field and set up Will Reichard for a walk-off winner to stun the capacity crowd.

It would be a devastating but fitting way for this matchup to close the book on its annual rivalry. A 60-minute battle wherein the entire college football world is locked in, either to declare Alabama dead or to dunk on Fisher, would be the most appropriate sequence of events.

Well, A&M fans would strongly disagree with that.