Final thoughts and a prediction for the 2020 SEC Championship
It’s not what we thought it was going to be.
We had hoped for a pair of SEC teams with 1 or no losses, both with obvious Playoff paths. That won’t be the case (more on that in a minute). This is actually shaping up to be the first time since 2016 that both SEC teams didn’t have a Playoff path in the conference title game.
We have a shoe and Greg Sankey to thank for that. Above all else, we have Florida’s dud of a performance against LSU to thank for that.
Click here to get exclusive +400 odds through SDS on Alabama to win the SEC Championship Game with DraftKings Sportsbook.

BET $1, WIN $100!
STATES: TN, PA, NJ, CO, IL, WV, IA, IN, VA, MI
Still, it’s a game in which we’ll see the league’s top 2 offenses with a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates at quarterback. Even with the LSU game, this is still the best matchup of quarterbacks we’ve had in an SEC Championship since … ever. That’s a win in itself.
So, here are my thoughts on the Saturday night — remember it’s a night game this year — in Atlanta:
1. I think both Playoff fates are all but set
Sorry, Florida fans. Sorry, non-Alabama fans.
No, I don’t think a 2-loss team in Florida’s shoes would be in position to make the 4-team field. It’s not just that we’ve never seen a 2-loss team make the Playoff, though that’s part of it. It’s that a 1-loss A&M team that would have the head-to-head against Florida would be in position to get in ahead of the Gators.
The selection committee already told us that the head-to-head advantage that A&M had was key. If it wasn’t, we wouldn’t have seen A&M ranked ahead of Florida in every ranking. And if Florida fans are telling themselves that this is some Playoff-or-bust game with Alabama, that’s ambitious, to say the least.
The only scenario I can see getting Florida into the field would be a win on Saturday, PLUS Northwestern beating Ohio State as a 3-touchdown underdog AND Tennessee beating Texas A&M as a 2-touchdown underdog.
Alabama, on the other hand, is 10-0 having won every game by at least 15 points, all of which were against the SEC. The Crimson Tide’s average margin of victory is 32.7 points. And in those 2 games against top-10 teams, Alabama won by 17 and 28 points. If that’s not an automatic bid, what are we really doing here. It’s one of the most dominant regular seasons we’ve ever seen. There’s nothing that can happen in Atlanta that would suggest Alabama isn’t 1 of the top 4 teams in America.
The selection committee, in a weird way, probably doesn’t have much left to consider with this game. The only thing left to play out would be what Alabama’s seed would be if it were to lose this game.
But yes, I fully expect this broadcast team to try and convince me this is some sort of winner-take-all showdown.
2. I get the Florida-Alabama SEC Championship history, but this ain’t 2008, 2009, 2015 or 2016 (especially 2015 and 2016)
It almost feels unfair to say this is another Florida-Alabama SEC Championship when this matchup figures to be vastly different than the 4 that preceded it. None of those matchups saw both teams hit 21 points. The game is played so much differently now than it was then. Look at these quarterback matchups and final passing stat lines:
- 2008 — Tim Tebow (14-22, 216 yards, 3 TDs) vs. John Parker Wilson (12-25, 187 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT)
- 2009 — Tim Tebow (20-35, 247 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) vs. Greg McElroy (12-18, 239 yards, 1 TD)
- 2015 — Treon Harris (9-24, 165 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) vs. Jake Coker (18-26, 204 yards, 2 TDs)
- 2016 — Austin Appleby (26-39, 261 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) vs. Jalen Hurts (11-20, 138 yards, 1 TD)
None of those 4 games featured both quarterbacks having multiple touchdown passes. The most combined touchdown passes in those games was 3. None of those 4 games produced a 300-yard passer, either. Shoot, McElroy won the 2009 SEC Championship MVP for completing 12 passes and having 1 touchdown (Mark Ingram scoring 3 touchdowns apparently wasn’t good enough).
I’ve got a hunch that Mac Jones vs. Kyle Trask will feel slightly different.
The over/under for this game is 73.5. Among Power 5 teams, Florida has the No. 1 passing offense and Alabama is No. 3. Expect points. These passing attacks are too good for that not to happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if Trask and Jones combined for more passing yards in the first half than the highest full-game passing yard total that those 4 matchups produced (486).
The only thing that could be similar is that the winner of all 4 of those matchups played in the national championship, and on 3 such occasions, the Florida-Alabama winner went on to win it all. Perhaps that continues in 2020.
3. Angry Kyle Pitts should be fun
I don’t know. I’m assuming he’ll be angry after not playing in the LSU game and then tweeting this out:
…
— Kyle Pitts👑 (@kylepitts__) December 13, 2020
Seven games, 11 touchdowns, 641 yards and 1 matchup nightmare. Pitts has either a touchdown or 80 receiving yards in all 7 games he played in this year. Does Alabama shadow him with Patrick Surtain? That would be the obvious choice, though it’s not like shadowing Pitts with elite cornerbacks has been the game plan to slow him down.
Five of the 7 games that Pitts suited up for were against former Nick Saban assistants. I imagine he watched all of them hoping that someone would finally draw up the right game plan. Instead, I’m guessing Saban called around to his former assistants and got crickets on the other end when he asked the question many have been wondering all season.
“How in the world do you stop that guy?”
4. Expect Dan Mullen to force Alabama’s linebackers to cover
Remember when Florida threw wheel route after wheel route against Georgia and by day’s end, the Gators’ running backs had almost twice as many receiving yards than the Dawgs’ entire team? Well, don’t be surprised when Mullen tries to replicate that formula. With Pitts, Kadarius Toney and Trevon Grimes warranting so much attention from that loaded Alabama secondary, Florida’s goal will likely be to try and force linebackers to cover running backs.
In Mullen’s ideal world, he can force Christian Harris and Dylan Moses (neither of whom have been great in coverage) to guard the likes of Nayquan Wright, Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis. It was Harris who allowed that 82-yard touchdown to James Cook in the Georgia game.
THE MAILMAN COOKIN’ UP TOUCHDOWNS pic.twitter.com/ClO8MmixWL
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 18, 2020
Those are the matchups Florida has to be able to exploit. It isn’t attacking Surtain, who is the highest graded defensive back in America (PFF). Malachi Moore and Josh Jobe are going to try and fool Trask on some of those anticipation throws. If Trask can recognize those rare instances in which a linebacker gets manned up on a running back, Florida has a much better shot at hitting those chunk plays.
Then again, we’re talking about an Alabama defense that enters Saturday riding a streak of 317 minutes and 52 seconds without allowing a passing score. That was Oct. 24 vs. Tennessee. That was also the last time Alabama allowed a completion on a pass that traveled more than 30 yards through the air.
Granted, none of those passing attacks were as prolific as Florida. Fire up the old “something’s gotta give” cliché.
5. Florida running corner blitzes (again) would be incredibly dumb
We saw Max Johnson pick them apart.
Let me rephrase that. We saw true freshman Max Johnson pick them apart.
Mac Jones salivates when he sees corner blitzes. It means someone has to cover DeVonta Smith or John Metchie with a single-high safety. Jones recognizes that extremely well. That’s the benefit of having an experienced starting quarterback. I guess it’s not so much about experience as it is just having a cerebral signal-caller who realizes that mismatch and doesn’t panic.
I don’t want to assume that Todd Grantham learned his lesson after watching LSU torch Florida on those plays. Telling Grantham not to blitz a certain way feels like telling Guy Fieri not to use a made-up word to describe a triple cheeseburger.
Then again, maybe Grantham didn’t think plays like this were a problem:
Max Johnson hits a wide open Kayshon Boutte for a 34 yard TD to give LSU (+23) a 21-17 lead and cash the 1H over (33.5)
LSU 1H +475 ✅
pic.twitter.com/aDNfFgcApA— Bet The Pigskin (@betthepigskin) December 13, 2020
Those are 2 true freshmen who did that. A pair of Heisman candidates could do much, much worse if Grantham insists on sending his cornerbacks.
Speaking of that …
6. I’m not ruling out the DeVonta Smith Heisman possibility, but Mac Jones winning wouldn’t be lazy
I know. Three catches for 22 yards for a receiver in a Heisman race is supposed to be the nail in the coffin. But with Trask’s letdown combined with idle Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence, Smith now actually has +450 odds to win the award. A dazzling punt return touchdown had something to do with that.
I get it. Jones’ odds are now at -225. He’s the favorite, and understandably so. If Smith has a big day, almost every scenario involves Jones also having a big day.
What would vault Smith past Jones? It would probably take something like a 175-yard, 3-touchdown performance in which Jones finishes with sub-300 yards and maybe all of his scores are to Smith. Perhaps a couple of interceptions mixed in with that line would also clear a path for Smith. Obviously, that’s not likely. There’s also still the possibility that we could see Trask throw for 4 touchdowns and significantly outperform Jones.
If Jones does all but lock up the Heisman, it won’t be a lazy thing. Like, “oh, it’s just going to the quarterback of the best team.” That’s coming from someone who banged the drum for Smith to get serious consideration. Jones is on pace to set the FBS record for yards per attempt. He’s the highest-graded Power 5 quarterback (PFF), and he threw for 4 touchdowns in half of his games. That’s against all-SEC competition, too.
This is some pretty elite company:
Highest-graded QB seasons since 2014
🔹 1. Joe Burrow (’19) – 94.9
🔹 2. Zach Wilson (’20) – 94.8
🔹 3. Baker Mayfield (’17) – 94.6
🔹 3. Kyler Murray (’18) – 94.6
🔹 5. Mac Jones (’20) – 94.5 pic.twitter.com/ktx4oHc5J2— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 14, 2020
I wouldn’t rule out the idea of the winning quarterback of the ACC Championship having an outside shot, but there’s a reason why Jones is now in the driver’s seat, and it isn’t just because he plays for the No. 1 team in America.
7. Nick Saban in Atlanta with Alabama is ____________.
Frightening. Terrifying. Horrifying. You pick. I’ll go with “unfair.”
Saban is 15-1 in Atlanta with his last lost coming to Tebow’s Gators in that 2008 SEC Championship. It hasn’t mattered if it’s been a season-opening game, an SEC Championship, a Playoff semifinal or a College Football Playoff National Championship. It doesn’t matter if his team is trailing late like the 2017 title game or the 2018 SEC Championship. Saban finds a way to get it done in Atlanta every time.
And go figure that this team could wind up being the most complete bunch he’s had yet. Time will tell, but it’s hard to argue with those numbers and the fact that it took one of the best players in college football history playing at his best for Saban to lose a game in Atlanta. Maybe Saban has a pregame meal from The Varsity that’s been fueling his ATL dominance for years.
I couldn’t tell ya. All I can say is this is quite the uphill battle for a coach who has never been in an SEC Championship like Mullen.
And a prediction … Alabama 49, Florida 28
I’ve been challenging myself to picture a path to a Florida victory. For what it’s worth, this process began weeks ago. The LSU game showed us why the Gators aren’t a complete team yet. Even during that post-Texas A&M winning streak, you could argue the Gators didn’t play 1 complete game. Between the slow starts and some of those frustrating defensive efforts, there’s always been something.
You have to play a complete game to beat this Alabama team. There’s no room for turnover-worthy plays or defensive miscommunications. You cannot be be 1-dimensional against this defense, either. Getting into a shootout makes the most sense for what Florida is best at, but it still also opens the door for Alabama to shift momentum with a game-changing interception. That’s ultimately what I think happens in this one.
It wouldn’t surprise me if this starts out with a rapid pace and something like a 21-21 score at the break. But I’ll trust an Alabama team who surrendered just 2 second-half touchdowns in the last 7 games. I’ll bank on Christian Barmore getting pressure and allowing Alabama to drop 8 into coverage so that Trask doesn’t have big windows to throw into.
Don’t get it twisted. I’m not expecting Alabama to shut down Florida for 60 minutes. Toney and Pitts should still have moments that remind us of their greatness, and I’d say the odds of a running back/non-Pitts tight end touchdown catch are strong.
This is, however, a different level of offense that Florida will see on Saturday. I’m 2,000 words into this and I haven’t even mentioned Najee Harris, who has allowed Alabama to be balanced all year. This attack is prolific and darn near unstoppable. Mike Elko didn’t have the answer, Kirby Smart didn’t have the answer, Jeremy Pruitt definitely didn’t have the answer and I can’t imagine that Grantham will have the answer.
It’s boring to say Alabama will roll in Atlanta yet again, but now doesn’t seem like the time for Saban’s squad to run out of gas.
Click here to get exclusive +400 odds through SDS on Alabama to win the SEC Championship Game with DraftKings Sportsbook.

BET $1, WIN $100!
STATES: TN, PA, NJ, CO, IL, WV, IA, IN, VA, MI
Alabama’s defensive scheme doesn’t allow for one player shadowing another player. They don’t work like that. It pattern matches based on formations. Half the field could be in zone while the other half is working man coverage principles. Occasionally, this will lead to a bad matchup but hopefully the DL can generate pressure on those plays. So no, Surtain will not be shadowing Pitts since it would disrupt what Bama does on defense.
Aggie and UGA fans would do well to concentrate on the ND vs Clemson game. An Irish win would likely get the Aggies in and set up a Peach Bowl with UGA vs Clemson, a renewal of an ancient rivalry.
That would be interesting since those two teams open with each other next season. The losing team wouldn’t have long to wait for a shot at revenge.
ND would go to the Orange.
The Orange is not in the playoff series this year, Rose and Sugar. #2 and 3 are scheduled for the Rose so would the committee faced with losing a #2 or 3 ND move them to the Sugar just to keep them? Who knows.
Now ND is saying they may not go to California if their fans cannot follow them.
Sorry, I meant Clemson.
Neither site is “scheduled” for anyone. The number one seed gets to pick. It will most likely play that way, especially if Alabama wins. Saban will make the others travel while he stays as close as possible.
I think that ND, like Bama, is in. Win or lose.
Florida’s Oline–has big issues. Alabama can get pressure on trask rushing 3 or 4 and can drop 7 or 8 into coverage like lsu did. He will probably be under pressure the whole game.
They’re not the best OL in CFB but Bama will have to send more than 3 to get pressure.
Alabama and Florida are identical in sacks allowed. Each has allowed 14 sacks through 10 games.
How many of those sacks are on Young for Bama?…
How many of Florida’s are when their back ups in?
Well considering that Trask played a complete game at least 6 times, I would say few on their backup.
Agree.
I think the Bama D line pressure will probably be the difference. With a minimal running game UF will be throwing a lot. The right pressure will lead to a pick or two. This Bama defense started off shaky this year, just as everyone else they had no Spring and it took a game or two or three to get it going. The busted coverages from those games were learning opportunities and we have seen hardly a one since then. I expect it to be as the experts are predicting.
Alabama’s defense is better than Florida’s defense, but I will be surprised if they hold Florida under 30 with Pitts playing.
I’d love to see Pitts flex out with a second tight end or a running back helping in max protect. Don’t expect to see it, but I’d love to.
I’d also love to see us keep a safety high doubled up on Smith, and just take our lumps with Najee and the short passing game. Alabama will still score but it will take longer.
The corner blitz is only dumb when you make the corner start out within five yards of the sideline, where it takes him over three seconds to get to the quarterback. But in that particular instance, yeah, it’s pretty dumb.
Very solid analysis. Mullen has been coaching around the lack of run blocking for two years. What I fear is the speed of the Bama defense. The holes in any zones will be much smaller due to Bamas quickness. It would be fun to see Surtain one on one versus Pitts.
Our tackles are about to get their lunch snatched. Delance is barely suitable to play power 5 football and Forsythe is more than suitable until he plays against anything close to a premier pass rusher. We are going to need to keep an RB in the backfield to pick that up. I feel bad for Trask. It’s amazing he has been able to do what he has behind that o’line. He deserves better
This is their night to step up and earn glory. Hopefully they raise their game– and we do some things to slow that rush down.
I love this comment. You do not earn glory against the have nots. You earn it against the best.
Patrick Surtain is a bit bigger than Derek Stingley, Jr., but he isn’t likely to be any more successful against Pitts than Derek Stingley was. Trying to hold him up at the start of his route is very high risk unless he’s being doubled.
Toney does not have top end speed, but nobody is covering him out of his break.
Handling the pass rush will be our biggest issue, but Alabama’s pass rush this year isn’t likely to be much different than Georgia’s or LSU’s was. Trask just needs to throw it to the blue jerseys.
Yeah. Throw it to the guys in blue– and do not hold the ball all night back there. I don’t think they will just single up Surtain on Pitts– but I wish they would!
Stingley didn’t play this year and was getting worked by van Jefferson the year before… do you even watch the games? Sad thing is you believe your bs
In 2019 Stingley was on Pitts for a few plays.
Not that it is likely to matter, but Florida does have one other path into the CRP – TAM loses; ND beats Clemson; Beat Bama. Each as unlikely as the next. If Trask finds a way to beat Bama he deserves the Heisman b/c it would take a heroic performance to upset them and also an off day of Jones. Again, both unlikely. I do hope that Mullen takes this as a learning experience and that Florid can at least keep it competitive.
Alabama wins 42-28
Bama fan this week. I just can’t pull for gators. Not in my DNA. I don’t think it will be close imo. Bama has more weapons and better D.
If you are truly a Dawg, you can NEVER pull for the Gators. Roll Tide!
Now those comments I can respect.
I will be shocked if Alabama doesn’t cover the spread. It’s actually pretty simple.
Offense = Even. Defense = Bama. Bama will be able to run the ball. Florida will not be able to run for much at all.
It’s going to take a complete team to beat the 2020 version of Alabama.
Because of a complete lack of a UF running game I give the edge to Bama on offense. The passing game is equal.
Trask has the momentum on his side. He’s coming off 2 TD passes and 2 TD runs his last game, whereas the Game Manager had 0 TD passes and 0 TD runs his last game. If the Game Manager wins the Heisman, it will be the first time in history the award is given to a Game Manager.
You’re either simply trolling or just started following cfb. The list of qbs that won the Heisman without being the best is long. Trask had a great year, but also picked a bad time to have a poor game.
Tebow won with 3 regular season losses. So there’s that.
Don’t forget those two completions to the other team. Trask was on it. His stats are inflated and he does not measure up to Jones in any of the QB analytics.
TRask leads Jones in MANY quarterback analytics. Total yards … touchdown passes … etc. You’re just another bama moron.
7….making changes for the second half.
(Speaking from experience of course-see UGA-Bama game halftime adjustments)
;)
I don’t expect this game to be any more competitive than Alabama’s game against Auburn. Florida will score early, but adjustments will be made to shut down their offense, while Alabama methodically moves the ball all day and scores at will. Until Coach Saban calls off the dogs, it will be very one-sided. Florida might score in the 4th quarter once the game is long out of reach.
Alabama by quarters: 14 20 14 7 = 55
Florida by quarters: 7 7 0 14 = 28
If the committee has to choose a 2 loss team, it will be Clemson if they lose today. They would have lost 2 to the number 2 team in the country. One in OT on the road, and the other at a neutral site.
Not if UF wins. SEC champ with 2 losses beats ACC non-champ with 2 losses any day.
Wrong. A conference Championship does not make any difference. See Ohio State getting in while not winning a CCG, and Bama getting in while not winning a conference CCG. Face it, when UF’s losses are looked at, they will not measure up against other teams with 2 losses.
Neither of those caused a conference champion to be left out. Thanks for playing.
“1. I think both Playoff fates are all but set”
Not so fast. #4 Ohio State looked terrible in barely beating Northwestern. No objective observer can say Ohio State is the 4th best team in the country. And, Iowa State lost. Florida beating Alabama should put them at 4.
OSU has been given everything they have received this season. They are going to try to get the BIG10 to change their COVID rules just for them. As for UF they will not get in. They will haunted by the loss to LSU. I guess you can keep dreaming though. Dreams are good.