Man, how ’bout this?

I didn’t think we’d see the day in which Tennessee would travel to Georgia as the No. 1 team in America. A top-3 showdown in Athens will be unlike anything we’ve seen among these rivals in my lifetime (I was born in 1990).

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As my guy Chris “Bear” Fallica pointed out, Tennessee-Georgia is the second regular-season meeting between top-10 teams that are 8-0 or better during  the Playoff era. The first? That would be 2019 LSU-Alabama, of course. This game feels like a similar vibe.

No, that’s not my way of saying Tennessee is just as good as 2019 LSU. The Vols just got their first win against an AP top-5 foe in 17 years. Compare that to an LSU team that beat 4 teams inside the AP top 5 and 7 (!) that were inside the AP top 10.

The Vols’ storybook run could include beating Alabama and Georgia at the peak of their powers. Alternatively, we could get a reminder that Georgia still runs the East, and really all of college football until further notice. The Dawgs haven’t lost a regular-season game since the 2020 Cocktail Party, and the lone loss since then came when the Heisman Trophy winner (Bryce Young) delivered one of the best individual performances of the past decade to win the SEC championship.

The winner will be riding especially high. A Playoff spot should, in theory, be all but locked up. The loser, though? Well, I’ll get to that in a bit here.

Let’s dig into all my thoughts (and a prediction) on this epic showdown in Athens:

1. The wild stat that I’ve been thinking about all week

In the Kirby Smart era, Georgia is 1-9 when it allows 30 points. When it allows less than that, it’s 73-6.

Wild? Absolutely.

Is it slightly skewed toward those pre-Todd Monken offenses that didn’t have the same modern passing game concepts? A touch, but 3 of those losses happened while Monken was at Georgia. The last time that Georgia played in a game wherein both teams scored 30 points was the Rose Bowl against Oklahoma, which was nearly 5 years ago.

I bring that up because Aaron Murray took a lot of heat from UGA fans for saying that the Dawgs didn’t want to get into a track meet with Tennessee:

I mean, is he wrong? Not at all. If I told you that Stetson Bennett IV and Hendon Hooker will both attempt 35-40 passes in this game, who would you pick to make more mistakes? For me, it’s Bennett, who averaged an interception once every 55.5 pass attempts since the start of 2021. Compare that to Hooker, who averaged an interception once every 130.5 pass attempts in that same stretch.

Mind you, Hooker is No. 1 in FBS in quarterback rating on throws of 20-plus yards in 2022 (via PFF) and he totaled 31 passing plays of 40 yards since the start of 2021, which is best in FBS. Bennett only has 13 such plays during that stretch, and 11 of them came in 2021 (the 2 in this year were insane Brock Bowers plays). In 2022, Joe Milton III has more passes of 40 yards than Bennett. As in, Tennessee backup QB Joe Milton.

That’s not to say Georgia is doomed offensively. But to Murray’s point, the Dawgs, especially with the lack of depth at receiver (maybe AD Mitchell is healthy?), aren’t built to play Tennessee’s game. If they play the Vols’ game and win, it’d be unlike anything we’ve seen from Smart’s squad in recent memory.

2. Tennessee’s defense is better than you think it is

If you just want to pretend like the Vols are vulnerable because they have the nation’s No. 127 pass defense, that’s on you. There are way too many data points that suggest this is far from a doormat defense:

  • No. 51 in FBS in yards/pass attempt allowed
  • No. 40 in quarterback rating allowed
  • No. 40 in yards/play allowed
  • No. 34 in sacks/game
  • No. 33 in opposing passing plays of 40 yards allowed
  • No. 32 in tackles for loss/game
  • No. 26 in FBS in scoring defense
  • No. 18 in FBS in opposing 3rd-down conversion percentage
  • No. 18 in FBS in opposing red-zone touchdown percentage
  • No. 9 in FBS in rushing yards/game allowed
  • No. 9 in FBS in rushing yards/carry allowed

Is that enough data points? OK, let’s include the fact that Tennessee only allowed 2 teams to hit 28 points all year, and half of its opponents failed to hit 14 points.

Reality is that the Vols have proven to be much better than what that raw passing number would indicate. It’s pretty easy to poke holes in that considering no team has had more passes attempted against it than Tennessee. That makes sense because how else does one keep pace with a highly efficient, highly effective offense? Airing it out and hoping for the best.

3. Georgia’s offense is better than you think it is

Has it been a touch underwhelming at times from the Georgia offense? Sure. The lack of non-Bowers explosive plays in the passing game is troubling. Jalin Hyatt has more receiving touchdowns (14) than Georgia’s entire roster (13).

Having said that, I feel compelled to bring up some of the extremely positive data points for the Georgia offense:

  • No. 10 in FBS in rushing yards/carry
  • No. 8 in FBS in passing yards/game
  • No. 7 in FBS in 3rd-down conversion percentage
  • No. 6 in FBS in scoring
  • No. 6 in FBS in fewest sacks allowed
  • No. 4 in FBS in time of possession
  • No. 4 in FBS in yards/play
  • No. 2 in FBS in scoring vs. Power 5 competition (min. 3 games)
  • No. 1 in FBS in rushing touchdowns
  • No. 1 in FBS in red-zone trips
  • No. 1 in FBS in red-zone scoring percentage

There. That’s 11 data points apiece for both the Georgia offense and the Tennessee defense, both of whom seem to be getting the short end of the stick this week.

Not in this column.

4. No Nolan Smith for Georgia is ____________.

Brutal.

Just brutal. The senior captain was the highest-graded edge defender in the SEC, according to PFF. He was also the best pass-rusher on a team that ranks last in the SEC with just 10 sacks. Last year, UGA had 5 sacks against Tennessee. The Dawgs had an all-world defensive line that could consistently get home with only sending 4 guys.

This year? I don’t know about that. With Smith out, that means the only returning starter in that front 7 who’ll be active is Jalen Carter, and he’s still working his way back from a knee injury. Against Florida, he only played 19 of 71 possible snaps.

Then again, is there anybody in America who has embodied the “next man up” mantra better than the defending national champs who lost 15 players to the NFL Draft? Nope. Georgia could use a huge day from Mykel Williams and Robert Beal Jr., who stepped up in Smith’s place last week against Florida. They need to get to Hooker, who has only been sacked 12 times in 8 games.

Ask Alabama, with that elite pass-rushing trio, what happens when you can’t get to Hooker more than once in a game. He picks you apart for 385 passing yards and 5 touchdowns. A consistent Georgia pass rush is the only way to somehow get this Tennessee offense out of rhythm.

5. Tennessee’s track record covering tight ends this year is __________.

“Mediocre at best.”

Fair or not, whenever I think about how the Vols defended tight ends so far in 2022, the Keon Zipperer play stands out:

Or, of course, there was also this play against Pitt:

A lot of opinions were formed about the Tennessee pass defense based on those poor tackling displays. I’m sure one of those opinions was “see, the Vols can’t defend tight ends, which is Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington are gonna run wild.”

They could. It’s not hard to picture Washington hurdling a dude like Bartholomew, and Bowers obviously can run through a flurry of tacklers like Zipperer did. Tennessee hasn’t seen a tight end duo like Georgia’s because with the exception of maybe Utah, nobody has a tight end duo anywhere near the level of Georgia’s. Bowers and Washington are responsible for 1/3 of Georgia’s passing yards and 1/4 of the completed passes.

Here’s the tight-end passing production for each game against Tennessee:

  • vs. Ball State: 5 catches, 43 yards, 1 TD
  • at Pitt: 5 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD
  • vs. Akron: 0 catches, 0 yards
  • vs. Florida: 5 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
  • at LSU: 2 catches, 22 yards
  • vs. Alabama: 6 catches, 90 yards, 1 TD
  • vs. UT-Martin: 1 catch, 8 yards
  • vs. Kentucky: 4 catches, 44 yards
  • Total: 28 catches, 381 yards, 4 TDs

On a per-game basis, that’s 3.5 catches for 47.6 yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Basically, Akron and UT-Martin were the only teams that couldn’t get the tight ends involved against Tennessee, and LSU has a true freshman starting at tight end.

And again, none of those teams have what Georgia has. It’s a mismatch every week. The only question is how much of a mismatch it is. Against Florida, Bowers and Washington combined for 8 catches (on 15 targets) for 201 yards. It’s probably unrealistic to expect that kind of day again, but as usual, expect Bennett to target them early and often.

6. What does a loss mean for both teams?

It’s something that neither fan base wants to think about because in some ways, it’s a daunting pill to swallow. That is, likely going from a top-3 team to being all but eliminated from playing for a conference title. Not many programs experience something like that in November because, well, not many programs have to maneuver the SEC.

I found it particularly interesting that the selection committee ranked Georgia at No. 3. It’s hard to imagine that Oregon win aging any better than it could have, yet the Dawgs came in behind Ohio State in the first Playoff ranking. Take that for what it is, but to me, that suggests the when (Week 1) and the where (Atlanta) are being factored pretty significantly by the selection committee.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s résumé is clearly being valued at its full worth. The Vols have 2 of the 4 most impressive wins of any contender. Hence, the No. 1 ranking. If they’re the ones who end up at 11-1 and on the outside looking in during conference championship weekend, I’d say that first ranking suggested they’ll have the better chance to earn a bid than Georgia.

I know, I know. These things will work themselves out. There’s still a whole month of football to be played, and these things will change on a dime.

The good news for either team is that even with a loss, their Playoff hopes will still be alive by day’s end.

And a prediction … Tennessee 35, Georgia 28

I mean, I said it in July.

Do you really think I’d back off of Tennessee now? Like, after the year that’s been? No chance.

For what it’s worth, I said that I thought the Vols would be a 9-3 team that would go to a New Year’s 6 bowl. To say I saw this coming would be a lie. But offensively, I was high on Tennessee and believed Josh Heupel could lead the No. 1 offense in America. So far, so good.

So why will this game be different than Arkansas-Georgia last year? For starters, UGA isn’t facing a first-time starting quarterback who literally limped into the stadium that morning (I love KJ Jefferson but the dude was in no shape to handle that UGA defense). This is the soon-to-be 25-year-old Hooker, who has been darn near perfect against everyone this year. That includes going into Death Valley and lighting up LSU, which many Georgia fans seem to be forgetting.

That’s not to say it’s a given that Hooker and the Vols keep things rolling on the road, but this is hardly the first big-time atmosphere for that group. And yeah, it wouldn’t be ideal if Tennessee got behind the sticks with a ton of penalties. Lost in the shuffle of the Vols’ blowout win at LSU was the fact that they committed 12 penalties for 107 yards … and it didn’t matter at all.

You know what else doesn’t matter? Time of possession. Tennessee has the best quick-strike offense in America. The Vols rank No. 125 in FBS in time of possession. This isn’t just about “keeping them off the field.” That defense has shown it can hang on even if the Tennessee scoring drives are 2 minutes apiece.

What the Vols have done to this point is darn impressive, and even a loss to the unbeaten defending champs wouldn’t change that.

But I’m sure as heck not jumping off the Tennessee bandwagon now.