1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …

They woke in droves Sunday morning all around the SEC footprint, gobsmacked from the realization that the sexy is gone.

The SEC doesn’t look so big and bad after all. In fact, it looks very Big Ten-ish.

Two weeks into the season — unless something rare happens over the rest of the season — the SEC is already down 3 national championship contenders.

The West Division of doom has become the division of gloom.

LSU, Texas A&M and Alabama all exposed in the first 2 weeks of the season, all left in the backwash of the rest of the Playoff contenders.

LSU was manhandled by Florida State in the season-opener. Texas A&M was outclassed by Miami last weekend, and the coup de grace hours later, Alabama looked like Kansas while getting thumped by Texas.

“This was a test for us,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said after Texas took the Alabama mystique and buried it from the first snap of a 34-24 win. “But it’s the midterm, not the final.”

The problem is, I’m not sure Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M even studied for the midterms. It’s not like they didn’t know the train was coming down the track.

They already knew FSU wanted to prove last year wasn’t a fluke, and Miami was desperate for a signature win under coach Mario Cristobal, and Texas was still ticked off about last year’s Alabama game.

These are the games the SEC owns, the games that define the unrivaled strength of the conference and make it difficult for BCS computers and Playoff selection committees to ignore when conference resumes are placed next to one another.

The games the SEC chews up and spits out, and thumps their chest and laughs at the Big 12 and ACC. You know, the ol’, “This is why you play in the SEC” response.

Then LSU was humiliated by 21, and Texas A&M lost by 15 (and should’ve lost by 30). Then, the biggie: Alabama’s 10-point loss to Texas felt like a 4-touchdown whuppin’.

Strike 1, 2 and 3 — and now what’s left in the SEC West Division?

Let’s say we just play along with the now narrative, and declare that Florida State will make the Playoff. So will Texas.

And Miami? The Canes are on the verge of something big — never mind the 5 wins in 2022.

In that sense, these losses were “good” losses, and won’t “hurt” the SEC’s Playoff chances.

Come on, man.

Like it or not, the SEC knows what it’s like to be the Big Ten after all these years: It sucks to be out of the Playoff hunt in early September.

Other than, of course, back-to-back national champion Georgia — which conveniently took the easy road by avoiding Oklahoma (yes, UGA could’ve played at OU) and choosing to add something called Ball State.

While the Bulldogs were playing footsie with David Letterman’s School — seriously, how embarrassing — the West Division of gloom was completely falling over itself.

There’s obviously a path to the Playoff for each of the Embarrassed 3, but it includes winning out and winning the SEC Championship Game. At this point, the idea of anyone winning out in the SEC — including back-to-back national champion Georgia — is shaky at best.

LSU is going to have problems this weekend in Starkville. Texas A&M and Alabama may not escape September without another loss.

Anyone who watched the Aggies’ 5-stars on defense play like 2-stars, or Alabama’s 5-stars on the offensive line play like walk-ons, has a unfiltered, rational realization that more losses are on the way.

Anyone who watched the way LSU’s rebuilt secondary covered against FSU can’t bear to imagine what Michigan or Ohio State or Texas or FSU (again) would do to the Tigers.

The sexy is gone, everyone.

2. A matter of time

Look, this thing couldn’t last forever. The advent of NIL and free player movement has increased the pool of talented teams that can compete for the national championship.

When FSU goes from fans wanting coach Mike Norvell fired in October of 2022 to what looks like a clear road to the Playoff in early September of 2023, you can see how quickly it can turn.

When Miami loses to Middle Tennessee, Duke and Pittsburgh among 7 losses in 2022, and coach Mario Cristobal runs off 23 players, and amid all that turmoil and turnover, the Canes get their biggest win in years against Texas A&M, you can see how quickly it turns.

When Texas steps on the field in Tuscaloosa — a year removed from winning 8 regular-season games and losing (again) to Oklahoma State — and has better players than Alabama and plays harder, you can see how quickly it can turn.

When 2 of the 3 aforementioned teams (Texas, Miami) that turned it quickly have coaches who were assistants under Saban and have built their programs in his image, well, it becomes crystal clear what the SEC is dealing with.

Everyone has millions in NIL money, everyone can land elite recruiting classes. The days of Alabama and Georgia and LSU — and for a brief run, Texas A&M — dominating recruiting rankings are over.

Cristobal is cleaning up in South Florida and beat Saban head-to-head on recruits that, in years past, would’ve left the “State of Miami” — Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties — for Tuscaloosa.

Miami had the No. 7 class in 2023 according to the 247Sports composite, including 5-star OTs Francis Mauigoa and Samson Okunlola — who both chose the Canes over Alabama.

Texas has had back-to-back top-5 classes, and its current 2nd- and 3rd-string quarterbacks (Maalik Murphy and Arch Manning) both chose Texas over Alabama — and would each likely start for the Tide right now.

It’s not just Texas, Miami and FSU. Others will follow. When you can turn it quickly with the help of the transfer portal, high school recruiting is eventually the main benefactor. Everyone wants to play for the hip school, the trending team.

Not yesterday’s heroes.

3. The step back, The Epilogue

How did we get here, you ask? The obvious answer is a decline in quarterback play during the age of the vertical passing game.

That’s the easy mark for Alabama, which is still figuring out how to best use QB Jalen Milroe in the offense. It’s not the same with LSU and Texas A&M.

LSU QB Jayden Daniels is primed for a huge season, and Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman is the most talented thrower Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher has had at College Station. The problem at LSU and Texas A&M is defense — the backbone of 2 decades of SEC dominance.

Elite defensive line recruits aren’t playing to their ceiling (or close to it), and it affects the entire defense. The Aggies have as many as 5 or 6 defensive linemen who will play in the NFL, and LSU isn’t far behind.

But they’re not disrupting and/or getting home, and they’re leaving huge holes in coverage in the process. You can’t ask the secondary to cover for an extended time because you can’t get pressure.

The Texas A&M and LSU secondaries were on skates in those losses and looked overmatched and overwhelmed. For years, the finished product of these high-profile nonconference games revolved around the SEC’s quick and physical defensive lines.

In the first 2 weeks of this season, they revolved around a limited pass rush (from Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M) and opponent passing games exposing tired secondaries. In those 3 big games, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M combined for 2 sacks (both by Texas A&M) in 111 pass drops.

The sexy is gone, everyone.

The only thing that’s left is to watch the division of gloom eliminate each other from the Playoff over the final 10 weeks of the season.

4. Sneaking up on the West

Don’t forget about Ole Miss, which got out of Tulane with an impressive road win and gained in no particular order:

  • Confidence for surging QB Jaxson Dart.
  • A defense that’s building good habits — and making game-changing plays.
  • Motivation from a close win.

So the Rebels haven’t played anyone with the credentials of Texas, FSU or even Miami. So what?

Winning is contagious, and this group wasn’t that far off from the elite of the West Division in 2022 — including just missing on an upset of Alabama.

Ole Miss has forced 5 turnovers in 2 games and has 8 sacks under new DC Pete Golding. The Rebels are 2nd in the SEC in allowing long plays (only 15 of 10+), and 3rd in passes defended (13).

And Dart is playing at a high level, completing 70% of his passes and averaging a whopping 12 yards per attempt.

“I think probably your players that have been around here are probably more like me, like, you know we didn’t play very well,” Kiffin said after the Tulane win. “We ended up winning by 17. Guys did a good job, but it didn’t feel great.”

5. The Weekly 5

Five picks against the spread.

  • 1. Kansas State (-4.5) at Missouri
  • 2. LSU (-7.5) at Mississippi State
  • 3. South Carolina at Georgia (-28)
  • 4. Tennessee at Florida (+8.5)
  • 5. BYU (+10.5) at Arkansas

Last week: 3-2.

Season: 7-3.

6. Your tape is your resume

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Auburn CB DJ James.

“I love his coverage skills, and that’s what it’s all about. He’s strong on the outside by himself, and he’s very disciplined and smart in zone. He has good cover instincts and hands, and his ball skills are tremendous. He rarely fails on 50-50 balls. He’s not that thick, he’s going to need to add weight. You can get physical with him, and he’s a grabber, not a tackler. That’s after the catch, and in run support. The bigger he gets, that can coached out of him.”

7. Powered Up

This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing: 2 weeks into the season, biggest preseason miss.

1. Georgia: The rebuilt offensive line will play at a high level. Dawgs had 28 carries for 99 yards vs. Ball State. They have 2 weeks to get it worked out before Sept. 30 game at Auburn, with its active front 7.

2. LSU: Moving Harold Perkins inside. I don’t need to see more of the mistake. Move him back to the edge full time, and watch him disrupt the game.

3. Tennessee: QB Joe Milton’s strong arm will stretch the pass game. Maybe it’s the vanilla offense setting up the Florida game, but 6.8 yards per attempt isn’t cutting it.

4. Ole Miss: After an uneven tenure at Alabama, how can DC Pete Golding be the answer to the defense? Here’s your answer after 2 games: 8 sacks, 2 INTs, 10 PD, 2 FF, 17 TFL.

5. Texas A&M: The Jimbo Fisher/Bob Petrino marriage is destined for disaster. Right now, the QB (Conner Weigman) and the offense are the only things working in College Station.

6. Alabama: This is the best offensive line at Alabama since 2020. This could be Saban’s worst o-line since he arrived in 2007.

7. Arkansas: Transfer portal losses will hurt defense’s ability to create negative plays. Hogs have 9 sacks and 21 tackles for loss and have forced 6 turnovers.

8. Kentucky: UK has 3 cornerbacks and 3 safeties that are SEC-quality players. Ball State and Eastern Kentucky — not exactly bastions of pass offense — completed 70% of their passes for 442 yards.

9. Mississippi State: The offense will still rely on the arm of QB Will Rogers. The Bulldogs are 2nd in the SEC in rushing yards (221.5 ypg.), and 13th in pass offense (194.5 ypg.).

10. South Carolina: The running back room goes 4 deep and will be a strength. The Gamecocks are averaging 1.8 yards per carry, and have 106 yards rushing.

11. Florida: New DC Austin Armstrong’s scheme will lead to more turnovers and negative plays. The Gators haven’t forced a turnover and have just 2 sacks.

12. Auburn: Coach Hugh Freeze and OC Philip Montgomery will change the passing game. The Tigers are last in the SEC in yards per game (148.5), completion percentage (57.1) and passer rating (135.3).

13. Missouri: New OC Kirby Moore will make the offense balanced and dynamic. The Tigers are last in the SEC in scoring offense (29 ppg.), 12th in total offense (376.5 ypg.) and last in TDs (8).

14. Vanderbilt: The defense will be better on the perimeter, in the pass and run games. Vandy already has given up 12 plays of 20+ yards, including 7 plays of 30+ yards, 4 of 40+ and 3 of 50+.

8. Ask and you shall receive

Matt: I don’t want to sound like an alarmist, but should I be concerned about the Tennessee offense under Joe Milton? — Stephen Turner, Nashville.

Stephen:

We’re going to find out about the Tennessee pass game (and offense) this week against Florida. The Gators’ defense is improved, and they’ll pressure Milton — who’s not the fleetest of foot in the pocket — into quicker decisions.

The bigger question: Is Florida strong enough up the middle — defensive tackles, middle linebacker, safety — to stop the Vols’ run game? Tennessee ran for 227 yards last year vs. the Gators, and that stress on the defense freed up intermediate and deep throws off play-action that played a major role in Tennessee’s first win in the series since 2016.

No matter what you’ve seen in 2 weeks from the Gators, they will play their best game against the Vols. If Tennessee — which leads the SEC in rushing (257.5 ypg.) after 2 games against overmatched teams — can’t run the ball, the crowd and environment and Florida pass rush will be a major problem for Milton and the offense.

9. Numbers

4. The best secondary in the SEC vs. the SEC’s total offense leader. Welcome to a sneaky good game in a sleepy (11 am local) time slot.

LSU at Mississippi State, a dangerous spot for an LSU offense that got right last weekend against overmatched Grambling — but will face a much different defense in Mississippi State.

Specifically, a much better secondary: The Bulldogs are 2nd in the SEC in interceptions (4). CBs Decamerion Richardson and Esaias Furdge are long and active on the outside, and safeties Shawn Preston and Marcus Banks are physical enforcers on the hash.

The coverage and an underrated pass rush (LBs Jett Johnson and Nathaniel Watson) will be a problem for LSU QB Jayden Daniels, who leads the SEC in total offense (354 ypg.).

10. Quote eto note

Georgia coach Kirby Smart on QB Carson Beck: “He’s getting the ball out of his hands quick, he sees the field. He can tell you what coverage it was, he keeps his eyes down the field. Had a max blitz today and cut a guy free, he stands in there and throws a touchdown. Not a lot of quarterbacks can do that. He does a good job playing that position.”