First and 10: LSU is really, really good, but LSU has no chance of beating Alabama
By Matt Hayes
Published:
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
The best part about this game of games in the SEC, the one true test for Alabama this season, is the blissful avoidance of reality.
LSU doesn’t have a chance in hell of beating Alabama.
Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, maybe it’s time to sit back and truly soak in what Nick Saban has accomplished at Alabama. It typically takes one of these games – games where we just know (insert team) has something for the Tide – to recalibrate.
Or, in layman’s terms: a good ass-kicking to set it all straight.
“The best way to explain it is there is no room for error,” Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher says of playing Alabama. “No errors.”
Or you get 51-14. Or 62-7. Or 39-10.
You get those lopsided wins even with Alabama starters sitting in the second half, and with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa playing on a balky knee — and still playing better than anyone in the game by a country mile.
You get a team — after Saban built the beast of a program with caretaker quarterbacks and winning championship after championship – that now has a game-changer at the most important position on the field and is more potent than ever.
The ability to suck the very life from the college football season got even stronger at the expense of everyone else.
Look, LSU is an elite team. In any other game, against any other team, they’d be favored playing in the cauldron that is Death Valley. Not in this game, not in this moment.
LSU has a stout defense, manufactures points on offense, and tries to get to the final 15 minutes and win a last possession game. LSU’s quarterback, Joe Burrow, manages the game.
You’re not beating Alabama with a quarterback who manages the game.
Alabama loses to generational quarterbacks (Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Johnny Manziel, Deshaun Watson), or freak happenstance (Kick-6), or where it completely self-implodes (Ole Miss, twice).
Since the disaster that was the 2010 season – when Saban’s most talented (and selfish) team lost three games – Alabama’s run looks like this: national title, national title, Kick-6, lost Playoff semifinal with a wide receiver playing quarterback, national title, lost national title game on last play, national title.
Alabama long ago eliminated suspense from the SEC race, even with the occasional loss to rival Auburn. You don’t really think that all of a sudden, because an LSU team that beat a Georgia team with flaws – let’s not forget: an LSU team that lost to rebuilding Florida – the time is right for a monumental upset in a sport that, more times than not, boils down to best quarterback wins?
We’ve said it before and it’s important to say it again: It’s not all Tagovailoa on the Alabama offense. The Tide has four running backs, and four wide receivers and a tight end who will play in the NFL.
Think about this: Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown an interception since last year’s national title game, and hasn’t played a full game – all four quarters – in his college career and has still hung Heisman Trophy-worthy numbers.
There’s lethal, and then there’s Tua.
The reality for anyone who plays Alabama: If you punt, you’re falling behind seven (more) points. The average margin of victory is 39 points, and Tagaovailoa’s average per attempt is an unthinkable 13.59 yards. The Tide is converting third downs at 56 percent, and that number is significantly higher with Tagovailoa in the game.
For years we’ve watched Alabama dominate the sport like few teams have, and every single season that domination revolves around a suffocating, overwhelming defense.
Heading into the 2016 national championship game against Clemson (see: generational quarterback), Alabama scored 11 defensive touchdowns and would have had a 6-8 record had its offense not scored a single point the entire season.
The entire season.
Fast forward to 2018, and Alabama has four defensive touchdowns, but hasn’t reached its lofty top 5 status: No.18 in the nation in total defense, No.10 in scoring defense.
“You just don’t notice it as much because of how they execute offensively,” said Missouri coach Barry Odom. “They’re just as dangerous. If they need a stop, they get a stop.”
Nearly a decade ago, Alabama eliminated any doubt of who runs the most celebrated and talented conference in college football. Yet every year we look for ways to find flaws.
Occasionally they appear. Typically, big games arrive, and the opponent is forced to choke down a strong dose of reality.
Get ready, LSU. You’re next.
2. Building the perfect opponent
Just for funsies, I asked an SEC coach what combination of players/units could beat Alabama?
He wasn’t allowed to go player by player, because a coach could easily come up with 22 players that would humiliate Alabama. Instead, the idea was all about specific units. Here’s what he came up with:
Quarterback: “Can I pick Tua’s (younger) brother (laughs)? I’d need a guy that’s mobile, that can throw with accuracy and do things with his legs. We just don’t have that in this league right now, so I’d go with (Jarrett) Stidham because he’s done it before. That arm talent is hard to pass up.”
Offensive line: “I’ll go with Georgia. There’s some beef in that group. Those guys might not be the most motivated group week in and week out, but when they are, they get after it. Three or four of those guys are going to make money playing this game.”
Skill players: “You’re not going to believe this, but I think I’d take Florida’s skill guys, probably over Georgia’s. I love those backs, and the receivers are physical and athletic, and every one of them can run after the catch and are willing blockers. If that offense had a quarterback, they’d be dangerous. They are night and day from last year as far as skill guys. Just great coaching.”
Defensive line: “Mississippi State. You’ve got two first-round picks on that front with Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons. A bunch of seniors in that group, too. Those guys have been through the battles against Alabama.”
Back seven: “The thing with the LSU corners is you can literally just put them out there and forget about them. ‘We need you to take him out of the game, OK?’ And it happens. If we’re in this fantasyland game, that’s going to be a big thing. Have you seen those Alabama receivers? Plus, there’s (LB) Devin White. He brings a wallop in the run game, and is fast enough to cover in space.”
Special teams: “Georgia’s kicker Rodrigo (Blankenship) and Mecole (Hardman) returning punts and kicks. That’s a pretty dangerous tandem.”
The next question: Who would win?
“You’re kidding, right? This make believe team would win by three scores, easy,” the SEC coach said. “Alabama is a special team, but this is a helluva league. The best from any Power 5 league would beat them comfortably.”
3. Building the perfect game plan
So we’ve already established LSU is out of its depth in this game. What then, can the Tigers do to get the game to the fourth quarter?
Do what no one has been able to accomplish since the first play of the season: pressure Tagovailoa.
Georgia forced Tagovailoa into poor decisions in last year’s national championship game by getting pressure and eliminating comfort. There is risk/reward in this thought process.
LSU has the ability to take at least one Alabama receiver out of the game — or at least limit the damage — with cornerback Greedy Williams. So that’s Williams vs. Jerry Jeudy.
The Tigers can then role a safety over Alabama’s No. 2 receiver (Henry Ruggs III) and have bracket coverage on him to affectively take him out of the game. That leaves LSU with eight players on nine, and the question of how to use your eight to get pressure.
“LSU is big on using blitz packages and playing zone behind them,” an NFL scout told me. “But Tua can see that. You’re not going to confuse him with that. They’re going to need to get pressure with (the front) four, and play seven behind them and every once in a while overload a specific side of the box.”
Then all you need is for Burrow to play the game of his life, the defense to get turnovers and produce short fields for the offense, and for Tiger Stadium to become a factor in the second half.
That’s all.
4. The challengers
Now that there’s little question who runs college football this season (this season?), the obvious next step: Can anyone beat Alabama?
The three contenders (yep, that’s it):
CLEMSON
Why? If you think Tua Tagovailoa is a once in a program quarterback, check out Trevor Lawrence. He makes throws NFL quarterbacks can’t make, and hasn’t begun to completely figure it out. When the Clemson offense is clicking, the Tigers can get in a track meet with any team – including Alabama.
Why not? The defense – specifically the back seven – has struggled in coverage this season. More disturbing, it seems like the Clemson front four (all four will be high NFL draft picks) is turning it on and off when needed. Is the hunger there on that side of the ball?
The preparation: There’s a reason Brent Venables is one of the highest-paid defensive coordinators in the game. He’ll come up with some twist to slow down the Tide offense. But enough for Clemson to score more points?
Chance to beat Alabama: 35 percent.
OKLAHOMA
Why? QB Kyler Murray is the dynamic player in the game, and coach Lincoln Riley is the best play caller in the game. That’s a lethal combination that will score all game on any defense.
Why not? The next time the Sooners play a complete game defensively will be the first time. That said, OU wasn’t any better defensively last year and still almost made it to the CFP National Championship by sheer offensive force.
The preparation: OU played better defensively last week against a K-State team playing out the string. They have athletes and good size within the unit, but they’ll need multiple stops against the Tide – and that’s asking too much.
Chance to beat Alabama: 20 percent.
MICHIGAN
Why? The Michigan defense is all kinds of nasty. The Wolverines can get pressure with the front four (a critical component of anyone with aspirations of beating Alabama), and they’re sticky in coverage in the back seven. The offense will have to score more points than what’s happening now.
Why not? First things first: beat Ohio State. Once Michigan finally makes that reality under coach Jim Harbaugh, we can start talking about potential matchups. The Wolverines can run with power, and they’re physical on the outside at receiver. QB Shea Patterson, an Ole Miss transfer who has played the Tide, knows what to expect from Alabama and won’t be intimidated.
The preparation: Give Harbaugh three weeks to prepare, and maybe he can come up with a game plan to increase offensive production. Patterson is a dangerous dual threat player; Michigan must use his legs more to further develop the offense. You stress Alabama on defense by spreading the Tide out in four- and five-wide sets and throwing accurately – and allowing the quarterback to break contain and pick up positive yards.
Chance to beat Alabama: 10 percent.
5. The Weekly Five
Five picks against the spread:
- Alabama (-14.5) at LSU
- Georgia at Kentucky (+10)
- Missouri (+6) at Florida
- Texas A&M (+6) at Auburn
- Louisiana Tech (+20.5) at Mississippi State
Last week: 3-2
Season: 22-20-2
6. Big Blue hype
This is the game Kentucky has been pointing to since breaking a three-decade losing streak to Florida in September.
Now, the problem: How in the world is this team going to score points with a spot in the SEC Championship Game on the line?
It’s bad enough that Kentucky has scored all of 43 points in the past 14 quarters and one overtime, but the Wildcats did it against the two bad defenses (Vanderbilt, 81st in the nation in total defense; Missouri, 84th), one average defense (South Carolina, 55th) and one good defense (Texas A&M, 25th).
QB Terry Wilson played better last weekend at Missouri with his job on the line, but Kentucky still had 9 points in 60 minutes until the final, untimed game-winning touchdown pass.
“They’ve tried to make (Wilson) a thrower, like any staff would do at that position,” one NFL scout said. “But that kid is a runner, and a guy who can make some throws when he has to. They were dangerous early this season when he was getting out of the pocket and running. At this point, you have to try something, even though it goes against everything you’re trying to teach him about hanging in and going through progressions.”
Eight games into the season, and Wilson’s best game was Week 2 against Florida, when his ability to stress the Florida defense by breaking containment was critical to UK’s win. The UK staff has worked tirelessly all season to make Wilson more comfortable in the passing game.
It’s time to let him run again.
7. Lighting a fire
Two of the SEC’s best quarterbacks were challenged by their respective coaching staffs last week – threatened to be benched, even – and both responded with huge performances.
Justin Fields never got off the bench to play for Jake Fromm at Georgia, and Keytaon Thompson played one series in place of Nick Fitzgerald at Mississippi State.
Next up to move it or lose it: Florida QB Feleipe Franks.
The annual rivalry started poorly for Franks – he missed WR Van Jefferson on a deep ball off a flea-flicker on the first play of the game – and got worse from there (one fumble, one INT, 5.0 ypa.). Florida’s loss in the annual Cocktail Party showed two crucial factors at play for the future of the program:
1. Dan Mullen is a terrific play caller, and the Gators have talent at the skill positions.
2. Franks will be pushed for the starting job.
While everyone in the league expected UGA coach Kirby Smart to use a package with the Fields (more on that later), it was Mullen who played his freshman quarterback Emory Jones for the first time since the season opener.
Mullen said Jones has been practicing well and deserved to play, and his only throw of the game was a perfectly thrown deep ball that Georgia corner Tyson Campbell had to interfere on to prevent a touchdown to Jefferson.
Expect Jones to get more playing time over the next four games (Florida will be favored in all four), especially if Franks’ regression of last week continues into November.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I know it’s 2 a.m., and I should be celebrating a big win over the hated Gators. But I’m worried about Justin Fields. If he didn’t play this week, after Fromm played so bad last week, when will he play? Hey, I’m always looking to the future!
Patrick Shubert
Atlanta
Patrick: This was the season for Georgia. Lose to Florida, and you’re out of the SEC Championship Game and any hope of returning to the CFP is done. Clearly the Georgia staff thought Fromm gave them the best chance to do that.
That means two things to me: Fields isn’t ready to play, and Fromm is the future of the program.
Fromm won the job last year from Jacob Eason (another 5-star recruit who had a strong freshman season) not because of injury, but because of the way he played, how he managed the game and how he picked up the offense so quickly. Fields isn’t there yet, or he already would have played more. Smart’s track record proves that.
What does that mean for Fields? If he does what most 5-star quarterbacks do when they lose jobs, he could transfer at the end of the season (all things staying current course).
Fromm looks like a 4-year starter at Georgia, which would leave Fields in a difficult situation. He won’t be the first 5-star Georgia quarterback to transfer under Smart (see: Eason), and the way Smart recruits, likely won’t be the last.
9. Numbers game
7.69. A special treat to those Tennessee fans who believed Derek Dooley set back the Vols program a decade: Look what he’s doing to Missouri QB Drew Lock.
A first-round lock in the NFL draft prior to the season – and potentially the first overall pick – Lock’s season under Dooley (who had never been an offensive coordinator before this year) has regressed in nearly every metric.
Worst of all: Lock’s yards per attempt has decreased from a respectable 9.46 (scout said it needed to increase into the double digits this fall) to 7.69 behind Dooley’s dink and dunk system. At one point in the second half last weekend vs. Kentucky, the Missouri offense had eight straight three and outs.
Lock, who will have one of the strongest arms at the NFL Combine next year, is mired in an offense of RPOs and “taking what they give you” instead of the coordinator actually finding ways to get receivers open and using Lock’s arm talent.
10. Quote to note
Kentucky coach Mark Stoops, on the final, untimed play to beat Missouri: “What was it like watching it? I felt like I was going to have a heart attack.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
