First and 10: The SEC is changing fast. Alabama better brace for a new world
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
Change is coming, everyone. A season of the unknown in 2020 has begun to play out before 2019 wraps up.
Programs slipping and programs rising. New coaches, new quarterbacks, new identities.
Coaches on the hot seat, coaches with extensions – wait, those are one and the same. We’ll get into that later, but first consider this primer for 2020:
1. Alabama, SEC king for the better part of the last decade, will lose as many as 6 underclassmen to the NFL Draft and will return in 2020 with big questions at quarterback and defense – the two rock-steady foundations of Nick Saban’s teams since the 2008 season.
2. LSU, a solid favorite in this weekend’s SEC Championship Game against Georgia, will begin 2020 with a new quarterback (who might just be a familiar name in SEC circles) and more than likely without 30-year-old passing game guru Joe Brady (the hottest young coaching prospect in the country).
3. Georgia, a play way from winning it all in 2017, and a blown double-digit lead in the SEC Championship Game from reaching the CFP in 2018, could take a significant step back with what could be another true freshman quarterback starter for coach Kirby Smart (his 3rd in 5 seasons).
4. Florida, which has won 20 games in 2 seasons under Dan Mullen, has the SEC’s most experienced (and best) quarterback returning, and he might not win the starting job.
5. Arkansas and Ole Miss are looking for new coaches, and are looking at the same candidates (Mike Norvell of Memphis, and – wait for it – Mike Leach and Lane Kiffin).
6. Will Muschamp was nearly forced out of South Carolina last week, and but for a completely botched attempt to figure out how Florida State came up with $18 large (that’s million) to fire Willie Taggart, Muschamp might have been Nick Saban’s next defensive coordinator at Alabama (more on that later).
7. Joe Moorhead won the Egg Bowl, which at this point in the bitter rivalry means keeping your job or getting pink-slipped while sitting in the living room of a recruit (hello, Matt Luke). So he’s got that going for him. Which is nice.
8. Missouri is looking for a new coach after firing a perfect fit (Barry Odom) because anyone who loses to Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee in the same season should be fired.
9. Tennessee is cray-cray, over the moon for Jeremy Pruitt, the same guy they wanted to run out of town after losses to Georgia State and BYU to begin the season. Why, you ask? Because Pruitt beat Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Missouri – and still hasn’t won a game of significance in two seasons (i.e., Florida, Georgia or Alabama).
10. On performance alone, Derek Mason should have been fired at Vanderbilt but wasn’t. For the first time ever, a Vandy administrator sat back and realized the program needs a major facelift to support any coach (much less, Mason) in an untenable situation.
11. And last, but certainly not least, we give you The Curious Case of Gus Malzahn: Days from getting fired (again), he wins the Iron Bowl and professes his love for all things Aubie (again) while dancing behind the scenes with Arkansas (again). Is it possible that Auburn officials get suckered in (again) and throw even more money at the Gus Bus?
Good grief, do I have a man crush on Jimmy Sexton.
2. The most important/unstable position on the field
Two years ago, when Florida was looking for a head coach, it had nearly a decade of awful quarterback play in its rearview.
Now the quarterback room is so good, the best returning quarterback in the SEC next season (Kyle Trask) might not hold off Emory Jones this offseason for the starting job. Not only that, late last week former 4-star recruit Joey Gatewood passed on playing at Florida because the quarterback depth chart is too deep.
Jones’ dual-threat ability fits better with coach Dan Mullen’s offensive philosophy, and Florida’s inability to run the ball was a red flag in losses to LSU and Georgia. Throwing on 4th-and-inches is not a good look, folks.
Feleipe Franks, the former Florida starter, could leave for the NFL (or MLB) – or play as a graduate transfer. A likely landing spot: LSU. Franks chose Florida over LSU 4 years ago, but he might not have Brady to develop him like he did LSU star Joe Burrow (from late-round pick, to potentially No. 1 overall).
Jake Bentley, who 4 years ago chose South Carolina over Alabama, has decided to transfer.
So, to recap: Trask might not win the starting job after clearly playing well enough to force Franks to leave. Franks, meanwhile, will have numerous options, including LSU – which is desperately trying to stay ahead of Alabama, which could add Bentley.
Meanwhile, there is Georgia, the other SEC heavyweight. Jake Fromm is expected to leave for the NFL, placing the Dawgs in a precarious situation at the most important position on the field. Not only has Fromm regressed this season under new coordinator James Coley (more on that later), any new quarterback in 2020 will again be under Coley’s tutelage. Or will he?
Smart has started 2 true freshmen in the past 4 years (Jacob Eason, Fromm) and could play another in 4-star commit Carson Beck of Jacksonville, Fla. In the previous 2 true freshman seasons, Eason and Fromm combined for a touchdown to INT ratio of 40 TDs/15 INT – with Jim Chaney as offensive coordinator.
Finally, there’s Kellon Mond at Texas A&M. Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher has spoken highly of Mond, but it’s hard to ignore what happened this fall against the heavyweights: TAMU was 0-5 vs. Clemson, Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Georgia.
While most quarterbacks would also be 0-5 in that situation, you can’t turn away from 10-for-30 passing, for 92 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT vs. an LSU defense that had given up huge chunks of yardage all season.
Expect Fisher, too, to scour the transfer market (especially since he’s 10-9 vs. Power 5 teams in 2 seasons at College Station; 6-0 vs. everyone else with Mond at quarterback).
3. The Big Change, The Epilogue
There’s no bigger story in 2020 than the state of Alabama football. Because at this point, Saban’s program looks more vulnerable than it ever has.
The Tide couldn’t stop LSU at home (that late deep ball Tide touchdown was an unthinkable display of arrogance by LSU DC Dave Aranda, playing bump and run on DeVonta Smith with less than 2 minutes to play), and we don’t know what would have happened in the Iron Bowl had Tua Tagovailoa played.
Either way, quarterback is the easier fix – be it with a graduate transfer or finding a combination of Jones and Taulia Tagovailoa. Getting the defense right is the heavy lifting.
The defense was the problem against LSU, and the defense was the problem against Auburn. And that, for Saban, is the biggest takeaway from 2019.
How in the world did his beloved unit get this bad: giving up 25.4 points per game in SEC games.
There’s no denying now that Saban must make a change at defensive coordinator. He tried a combination of Tosh Lupoi and Pete Golding in 2018, and then Golding in 2019 – and by the end of this season, Auburn ran for 181 yards despite having a limited passing threat.
Maybe Saban can land an out of work former SEC head coach (Barry Odom) or former Power 5 coach who knows the league (Charlie Strong). Or maybe he throws money at a hot young coach.
Whoever it is, this unit has to get back to stopping the run and attacking in pass situations. Neither was prevalent in 2019.
Alabama can’t afford to go into the 2020 season — having lost 3 of its past 4 Power 5 games (that’s what it will be with a bowl loss) — with uncertainty at the quarterback spot and another season of defensive mistakes and slippage. Or the dynasty may truly be over.
4. The case for Georgia
Of course Georgia can beat LSU in this weekend’s SEC Championship Game.
All it takes is a wildly underrated defensive front 4 to get pressure on LSU QB Joe Burrow and force quick throws, and get the LSU offense off its timing-based RPO offense. Then run the ball with your big offensive line and deep rotation of running backs, and throw over the top with Fromm, and the next thing you know, you’re back in the College Football Playoff.
Only there’s one teeny-weeny problem: Fromm isn’t anywhere close to his production from 2017-18. His regression is startling.
Fromm has gone from 5th in the nation in passer rating in 2018 to 48th in 2019. He accuracy has dropped from 67 percent in 2018 to 62 percent in 2019, and yards per attempt from 9.0 in 2018 to 7.6 in 2019 (a half of a percent change in this statistic is considered significant).
The protection is there (he has been sacked only 9 times), but Georgia hasn’t had a consistent threat at the No. 1 receiver spot – much less throughout an inexperienced receiving corps.
What does all that mean? Georgia, like Alabama, will be staring at a crossroads season in 2020 with a new quarterback and plenty of questions after an ugly loss in the SEC Championship Game.
5. The Weekly Five
Five picks against the spread (Power 5 championship week style)
- Georgia vs. LSU (-6.5)
- Oregon (+5) vs. Utah
- Baylor (+9) vs. Oklahoma
- Virginia vs. Clemson (-28)
- Wisconsin vs. Ohio State (-17.5)
Last week: 5-4
Season: 36-36-1
6. Your tape is your résumé
Each week, an NFL scout breaks down the draft prospects of an SEC player. This week: WR Lynn Bowden Jr., Kentucky.
“Love this kid. This is the type of player every single GM in our league wants on his roster and in his locker room. A guy that will do anything to win, and his work ethic is infectious. He’s a ballplayer, man. He’s fluid, he sees the game, he’s a make-you-miss guy after the catch.
“He has a high football IQ. He’s a lot bigger and thicker than you think, too. My advice to him would be, get with a trainer for the next 4 months and work on that 40 time. The more he cuts off it, the higher he goes. But I’m telling you right now, this guy will be successful in our league. He’ll be catching balls for 10 years.”
7. Powered Up
The SEC Power Poll (and one big thing):
1. LSU: Remember when LSU couldn’t throw the ball? Now the Tigers will later this month sign 3 of the top 8 wideouts in the 2020 recruiting class, and 2 4-star quarterbacks.
2. Georgia: It’s simple: Beat LSU, and the SEC gets 2 teams in the CFP – most likely ranked No. 3 (Georgia) and No. 4 (LSU).
3. Florida: If Georgia wins the SEC, Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl to play Oklahoma or Baylor. If Georgia loses to LSU, Florida goes to the Sugar Bowl to play Oklahoma or Baylor. Clear enough?
4. Auburn: I don’t think Malzahn leaves Auburn, but now would be one helluva way to stick it to a fickle fan base that has been on his back for 2 seasons.
5. Alabama: There will be an exodus of players not playing in the bowl game, and why would you blame them? It’s fiscally reckless.
6. Texas A&M: Think about how top-heavy the SEC is: the Aggies, with 7 meaningless wins, are the 6th-best team in the league.
7. Tennessee: No one does meaningless November games quite like the Vols. We’ll get an idea of how far they have come in a bowl game against, say, Minnesota (how weird does that sound?).
8. Kentucky: Who knows why the FSU talks broke down. Either way, UK benefits by keeping Mark Stoops another season.
9. Missouri: AD Jim Sterk’s football hires: Bill Doba (fail) and Paul Wulff (fail) at Washington State, and Rocky Long (spectacular success) at San Diego State.
10. Mississippi State: Moorhead needs a quarterback, and I’m not sure Garrett Shrader is the answer. At least not now.
11. South Carolina: Muschamp needs an experienced, dynamic offensive play-caller who can develop quarterbacks. QB Ryan Hilinski has talent, but he’s raw.
12. Ole Miss: Would it really be that bad to bring back Hugh Freeze – as long as he gave a double pinky cross swear that he wouldn’t embarrass the university again with NCAA issues?
13. Vanderbilt: This thing doesn’t get fixed in 1 year. There are years of facilities upgrades still to be made, for starters.
14. Arkansas: Hogs are said to be interested in Lane Kiffin. That’s right, Lane Kiffin.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I don’t understand your power rankings. They should be the best team right now, not over the course of the season. That way, Tennessee would be top 4 or 5 right now. Give the Vols the respect they deserve!
Penny Joyce
Nashville
Penny: I don’t know how to break this to you, but your Vols won 5 straight to end the season over 4 SEC teams that didn’t break .500 … and UAB. Tennessee’s 7-5 record looks worse than Texas A&M’s 7-5 record – if that’s possible.
The Vols lost to their 3 biggest rivals (Alabama, Florida, Georgia) by a combined 112-30, lost to Georgia State and BYU and beat – are you ready for it? – Chattanooga, Mississippi State, South Carolina, UAB, Kentucky, Missouri and Vanderbilt. One word: woof.
While I’m happy Vols fans have something to get excited about, I also see reality. This time next year, after Tennessee gets annihilated at Oklahoma in Week 2 and loses to Florida at home to end the month of November, Pruitt will be pushing that Big Orange boulder uphill once again.
Until then, put everything into the Outback Bowl (my best guess of Vols postseason plans) and hope for the best.
9. Numbers game
33. The most impressive number at LSU in 3 full seasons under coach Ed Orgeron: the 33 turnovers lost. That’s fewer than 1 a game.
You’re going to win a boatload of big games with that number, especially when you’re converting 50 percent – that’s right, 1 of every 2 – of your 3rd-down opportunities this season. LSU’s giveaway number through 12 games this season: 12.
10. Quote to note
Missouri AD Jim Sterk: “If we can go out and hire someone with a lot of experience, then we’re going to look at that.”
Someone is extra butt hurt over the Iron Bowl.
Did Dabo Swinney write this article? Who has heard anything about Brady leaving? Fromm would be crazy to leave this year in my opinion…after the year he’s had…I can’t see him going before the 4th round…Trask not the starter for Gators next yr? Frank’s or Bentley at Lsu? Sounds like a bunch of while guessing and bs to me…
It’s from Matt’s SEC sources*.
*Alligator Alley at 247.
Oh my Lord, there is so much wrong here to unpack.
First of all, Jake Fromm is not expected to leave Georgia. In fact, because of this year, he’s very much expected to stay. So no Matt, Georgia won’t have a true freshman QB starting next year. It’ll be Jake Fromm.
Also, Coley isn’t expected to survive to next season as the OC, or only OC, depending on just how angry Kirby is. With Mike Bobo’s firing at CSU imminent, the expectation is that he’ll either be Georgia’s new OC in 2020 and QB Coach to fix what Coley’s screwed up with Jake Fromm’s confidence and mechanics, or at the very least, the co-OC and QB Coach. Either way, expect a better Fromm next year.
Lastly, there is no way Floriduh is going to the Sugar Bowl this year, especially over a Georgia team that owns them and their clown coach. Good God man, we know you’re a Floriduh homer, but the best Floriduh can hope for is the Cotton Bowl, and even that’s unlikely.
If Georgia loses to LSU, and we likely will, the committee will choose between Georgia and Bama for the Sugar Bowl, with whomever they choose not to go to the Sugar Bowl sent to the Orange Bowl. Floriduh’s hope is that the Big-12 title game loser doesn’t get the Cotton Bowl. If they do, Floriduh is in the Citrus.
Do you actually know anything, or do you just throw a bunch of pro-Floriduh and pro-Sideshow Dan crap against the wall and hope it sticks?
Do you know anything about football?? Or I’d this just your bias showing? FloridA is guaranteed a NY6, whether it be the Sugar, Orange or Cotton (ranked in order of how good they are). Georgia will be going to the Sugar, Florida will be in the Orange and Bama will go to the Cotton. “Even that’s unlikely”. What a ridiculously stupid comment.
No they’re not. They’re not guaranteed anything, because they’re not going to be a conference champion or the second-best team in their conference.
If the SEC Champion is in the playoff, the CFB Playoff Committee chooses the second-best team in the SEC as the Sugar Bowl representative. That is guaranteed to be either Bama or Georgia, should Georgia lose in the SEC title game.
After that, to fill the spots in the other bowls, it becomes an issue of were the CFB Committee ranks them as well as the bowl’s wishes. There is no way Floriduh will be ranked ahead of Georgia or Bama. So I should ask you, DO YOU KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT HOW THIS WORKS?
Because to me, it’s obvious you don’t. The only way Floriduh is guaranteed anything is if Georgia beats LSU and there’s two SEC teams in the playoff.
The Cotton Bowl gets the last pick, and they’re far more likely to pick a Big-12 team if the Big-12 champion misses the playoff (because the champion is slotted for the Sugar) than Floriduh.
So this idea that Floriduh is guaranteed anything, especially the Sugar which they 100% have no chance at getting, is ridiculous.
Dumb dumb speaks again.
When your”3 biggest rivals” are ranked in the top ten, losses are expected for a team many anticipated to go 6-6. Don’t understand “meaningless November” comment. That doesn’t make sense. Every game counts.
Pretty stupid take on UT. Wins over top 25 teams last year are meaningless? I’d argue winning 5 straight is meaningful to any team trying to put out a dumpster fire. If the metric is top 10 or 15 wins, then around 100-110 teams this season didn’t do anything “meaningful” this year.
After the Flordia loss…I heard a lot of people talking about UT going 3-9 or 4-8…I think Pruitt did pretty good job..plus UT was competitive against Uga and Bama…
I agree, pulling off a 5-game winning streak to end this season is meaningful for Pruitt and UT as a program.
Very pleased with Vols late season progress,,, to call November meaningless is about as meaningless as most of writers points,,,,As bad as it was after blowing BYU,,, meaningless is far from the truth
I’ve got $100 bucks that Matt is a Florida fan. Any takers? He has a serious stiffy for anything Florida. Weird fetish…
UT has some good wins over the past couple of years. I’m just looking for more consistency. November was good, the guys found a way to win games. Now, we just need to consistently score. We left a lot of points on the field this season. The D looks pretty consistent when they get going. Let Pruitt fill the roster and I think we’ll be able to compete consistently. I don’t know what to expect next year
He graduated from Floriduh.
If UGA loses to LSU and its remotely respectable they still deserve the sugar bowl bid.
He writes for the Bleacher Report. Nuff said.
That explains a lot. I had thought that this site was really going downhill after reading this article. I didn’t realize it was written by a reporter from a site that’s neck and neck with Deadspin in terms of irrelevancy.
LSU has been working on new lucrative contract for Joe Brady. It’s highly unlikely he is leaving.
Who said Brady is “more likely than not leaving”? Ed Orgeron said he has a plan to keep em, so I trust good ol Coach O. And please God don’t let Franks come to LSU. I think Brennan should get a chance.
I don’t like the disrespect towards Tennessee. You really expect them to beat Florida, Georgia and Bama after two years? Idiot. I like the fight that team has shown over the course of the season, and I think Pruitt can take them somewhere.
Speaking of Franks. I was dismayed when Franks got hurt prior to the UGA game. Everyone talked about the “new” Franks in his second year under the QB whisperer Mullen. Meet the new Franks, same as the old Franks. Maybe Mullen has lost his touch. Or maybe he never had it.
lol
another idiot uga fan shocker
I’m like you, I liked the new Franks. I was looking forward to seeing him break a record or two…in turnovers.
he only had 6 turnovers last year. So you think he was going to turn it over more this your. Man youre dumb
An exceptionally crappy article with a multitude of idiotic, uninformed takes. Fromm’s regression has made his staying more likely than not. If Coley is kept for another year after barely averaging 30 points a game vs Power 5 competition then the state will riot. LSU will sell the shirts off their backs to keep Brady. Tennessee’s improvement has to be acknowledged, and Bama/UGA will probably get better bowl bids than Florida due to better records and more top 25 wins for the latter, plus the head-to-head result. Finally, Bama’s QB situation heading into next year is a heckuva lot better than UGA or LSU’s, given they have Jones, Tualia, that other white kid, and Bryce Young coming in. (Somebody’s definitely transferring from that group though).
Y’all need to hire Rich Rod
Are you sure Alabama is ranked above Florida? They have the same record, and Florida has the only top 25 win of the two over an Auburn team that beat Alabama. I’m not sure who would win head to head, but Florida has the better resume and Bama has lost it’s most exciting player.
That’s a pretty good point, actually.
As a professional this guy shouldn’t let his personal bias feed into his writing. But he does week after week.
There seems to be a lot of personal guesses and assumptions being passed off as givens and ironclad predictions in this article.
On a personal note, I think Franks would be a good fit at LSU. At least it would even out the QB Karma a bit. Burrow’s good enough that he used up about 20 years of QB mojo in this past season.
I get the sarcasm. Getting Franks would be very unpopular at LSU. He backed out of his commitment late in the process leaving LSU hanging. Most fans are glad he didn’t come to LSU after watching his erratic play and antics. Brennan is unproven but he was a four star recruit that has been in the system for three years and has a big arm.
I don’t really get it. You kept insisting the Mark Stoops to FSU thing going after it was confirmed dead, now you wonder why they broke down when that’s been pretty consistently reported from the outset.
By all accounts, the interview went well but he felt like they wanted a bigger name so he withdrew from the search. No one has said a word contradicting that widely accepted story.
I don’t really get you. You fashion yourself an expert, yet can’t get a grip on a pretty basic story to follow. If you aren’t up to speed on something, why bother addressing it at all?
First he says UGA will suffer an “ugly loss” in the Title game and then he picks them to cover 6.5????
I thought it was an entertaining read to sum up 2019 (in his one person opinion). Nice job Matt.
Vols final record and finish to the season is pretty meaningful. Not to this years championships of course but to a team that has been in the abyss that now seems to possibly be turning a corner. Who had the vols picked to finish 3rd in the east other than some of the vol fans. Its not something we beat our chests about but is very meaningful in a climb back to relevancy in the east, the sec and nationally. Still lots of work to do but we are trending in the right direction for a change. The very definition of meaningful.
Fromm could be better off going to the NFL than staying another year. Hear me out uga fans. I am well aware how he struggled this year but was it Fromm or the offense and coley that hindered his progression. Probably a little of both. But if he goes to the draft this year he is probably guaranteed a 2nd round pick, maybe 3rd at worst. He could still stay in the first as badly as QB’s are needed in the NFL right now. If he stays at UGA there is no guarantee he does any better and he could do worse. Shoot a new hot shot coming in could take the job from him if he struggles early next season, he could get hurt, UGA could keep coley as OC (I know its not likely) or hire someone else who struggles as the OC. There are just as many reasons to turn pro as there are to stay, probably more.
I always thought he would stay 4 years. We’ll see.
Wow this is so wrong. Does he realize his entire column on Bama has been happening for years now? Bama always loses alot of players on the draft and most every year people say Bama can’t reload (but yet Saban does.)
Georgia with or without Jake Fromm won’t take a significant step back next year. There is no reason to think they will, outside of losing Fromm.
My point is the offense took a huge step back this year. Many of the skill players are true freshman, and they will be better next year.
Have you seen that defense? Many of those players will return, and the backups are stacked with very talented freshman.
Sorry, but Georgia is here to stay…
Floriduh Mattie is desperate to be right about Sideshow Dan the Clown and the ‘turds in Gainesville.
I think Saban should gracefully retire. Assuming they win the bowl game, they go out with 11 wins. I do believe he is one of the greatest college coaches of all time and I would like to see him leave on a high note. You don’t want to see Bama with 4 or 5 losses playing in the Holiday Bowl against Central Michigan. The game has changed. Nick is still a great recruiter, but not as great with in game adjustments. Those guys have given us a lot of great moments over the years and it would be nice to give Saban a first class sendoff.