First and 10: What happens if Kirby Smart loses the Cocktail Party?
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
Until now, there has been no reason to question Kirby Smart. Blind faith from all things red and black.
But let things get sideways this weekend in Jacksonville against rival Florida, and everything comes into play. Blown leads against Alabama, questionable game and clock management, and yes, even personnel decisions.
Smart, entering his 4th Cocktail Party as Georgia’s coach, says the Dawgs are excited about getting on the field again, “regardless of how we have played.”
Yet that’s the problem. A season that was set up for elite success is suddenly at a crossroads – and has left Smart staring at the first critical game of his head coaching tenure.
Georgia has better players than Florida. Georgia recruits better than Florida.
Georgia has the better quarterback, is better on the lines of scrimmage and has the No. 1 scoring defense in the SEC (and 5th in the nation).
Florida is playing with a backup quarterback and a banged up defensive line and a secondary that gets younger with each injury.
There’s no way in hell Georgia should lose this game, yet this is where we are: The Gators are a dangerous and confident team, and Smart is one loss from everything he has built since he arrived in 2016 coming into critical focus.
A) The unraveling of his teams with double-digit leads to Alabama in the 2017 College Football Playoff Championship Game and the 2018 SEC Championship Game.
B) The atrocious fake punt call at midfield during the SEC Championship Game, with the game tied in the 4th quarter.
C) The fake field goal at LSU in 2018.
D) Most recently, the decision to run a play with 8 seconds remaining in regulation against South Carolina, instead of allowing Rodrigo Blankenship – one of the nation’s best kickers – try to win the game that was eventually lost in overtime.
The decision to take unthinkable risk is bad enough. The execution of those decisions has been downright putrid. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is coaching.
But this isn’t the biggest problem on the horizon for Smart should the Bulldogs lose as favorites to their bitter rivals. The oversized cloud hanging over everything this season is Smart’s decision to force former Georgia quarterback Justin Fields into playing the Georgia offense instead of Smart tweaking his offense to better suit Fields’ multiple skills.
Fields, of course, left after last season (when all he was known for was the aforementioned disastrous fake punt) and transferred to Ohio State, where he has 33 total TDs (24 pass/9 rush) and 1 INT.
Smart’s quarterback, Jake Fromm, threw 3 interceptions 2 weeks ago in the loss to South Carolina and has 9 total TDs this season. His regression is as startling as Georgia’s ineffective and inefficient play on offense (more on that later).
This isn’t rocket science: If Georgia can’t beat Florida and Fields continues to light up scoreboards in Columbus (don’t kid yourselves, UGA fans, Ohio State’s schedule isn’t any less daunting than UGA’s), guess who starts feeling heat for the first time as the coach in Athens?
Smart arrived at his alma mater with Nick Saban’s Process in tow. But for all the organizational skills and ability to motivate and the precision of preparation he learned from Saban, Smart hasn’t learned how to do the one thing Saban does better than any coach: manage the game and the team.
That’s why this weekend’s Cocktail Party is a bright, flashing warning sign for Smart. Lose this game, and Georgia’s trend line looks like this: a play from winning it all in 2017, blowing a lead and losing the SEC Championship Game in 2018, not winning your own division in 2019.
Meanwhile, he’ll have just given Florida coach Dan Mullen, who really hasn’t proven he can recruit at the level of Saban and Smart, the ability to do just that with a big rivalry win in his pocket.
2. Consequences of choice
Years ago, when Alabama was in the infant stages of Saban’s unthinkable run of success, an overwhelmed Tennessee team came to Tuscaloosa and nearly beat Crimson Tide.
But for a blocked field goal on the last play of the game in 2009, Tennessee and first-year coach Lane Kiffin would have beaten the eventual national champions. Saban remembered that game, and not because Kiffin’s childish personality had rubbed so many SEC coaches the wrong way over the previous 10 months.
He remembered it because he saw what Kiffin’s offense did to his defense, and years later after Kiffin was fired from USC, Saban hired him to run the Alabama offense and bring it into the 21st century. He didn’t hire a friend; he hired the best guy for the job.
This offseason, former Georgia offensive coordinator Jim Chaney – instrumental in Fromm’s development his first 2 seasons – got a job offer from Tennessee and Smart didn’t want to match it. Instead, Smart decided to promote longtime friend James Coley, who had a less than stellar run calling the offenses at Miami under Al Golden.
Saban’s past 3 offensive coordinator hires were guys with which he had zero previous relationship but who were well-respected as Xs and Os coaches within the profession: Kiffin, Mike Locksley/Dan Enos, Steve Sarkisian.
Now Georgia’s offense is predictable with Coley, and his play calling is more conservative than Chaney. Fromm has significantly regressed (part of that is Georgia’s struggling receiving corps), and the offense is averaging 28 points vs. Power 5 teams (from 33.6 ppg. in 2018).
Georgia is heading into the homestretch of the season – games against Florida, Missouri, at Auburn, Texas A&M and potentially the SEC Championship Game – with an offense that struggles to score points.
It could be over early Saturday night if Georgia can’t shake the funk it has been treading in since the beginning of the season.
3. The importance of the Cocktail Party, the Epilogue
For months Smart has talked about the need to move the annual rivalry with Florida out of Jacksonville and into a home and home series. His reason: recruiting.
Because it’s a neutral site game, Georgia can’t invite and host recruits and loses a recruiting weekend others in the SEC have. In other words, it’s a competitive disadvantage.
The two universities last week signed a contract extension to keep the game in Jacksonville for the near future, and Georgia did so despite Smart’s constant offseason drum beating about wanting the game moved.
If Smart had won the 2017 national title, if he had won the SEC Championship again in 2018 and again advanced to the CFP, he’d have more bargaining power. Instead, his desire for a recruiting weekend lost out to millions of dollars.
A source close to the negotiations told me each school will receive at least $5.5 million per game. That means Florida and Georgia – which both earn anywhere from $2.5-3 million revenue for every home game – will pocket at least $11 million every 2 years by playing the game in Jacksonville.
If the game were played on campus, the two schools would earn $2.5-3 million every other year. That’s an $8 million difference every 2 years.
There are 2 coaches who have the on-field capital to convince their universities to walk away from revenue like that: Saban and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney. Smart’s not there yet.
4. Big Orange push
It’s still ugly and discombobulated and there’s no quarterback rhyme or reason to speak of, but one thing is becoming clear about Tennessee: The players respond to Jeremy Pruitt.
Despite all of the problems on and off the field, that is something critical to build on – especially with a back half of the schedule that could not only lead to the postseason, but to momentum for 2020.
Tennessee isn’t beating the elite of the SEC. It already has been blown out in 3 games against league heavyweights (and rivals) Florida, Alabama and Georgia. But the quarterback play is beginning to evolve (not surprising with Chaney leading the way), and the team is beginning to mirror the tough – if not, somewhat reckless – personality of its coach.
“Jeremy is all guts,” one SEC coach told me last week. “There’s nothing fancy about him. He’s just a ball coach. Considering what they’ve had there in the past, why not someone like him?”
Games against UAB, at Kentucky, at Missouri and Vanderbilt to finish this regular season gives the Vols a chance at the postseason for the first time since 2016 and gives Priutt the chance to win and continue selling his brand of football.
The more he wins, the more non-football miscues – from talking to police investigating his player to pulling the facemask of a player – don’t have as much impact on his future.
5. The Weekly 5
Five games against the spread.
- Florida (+4) vs. Georgia
- Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-15)
- UAB at Tennessee (-12)
- Ole Miss at Auburn (-18.5)
- Mississippi State (-7) at Arkansas
Last week: 2-3 (.400)
Season: 21-25 (.456)
6. Your tape is your résumé
An NFL scout breaks down the draft prospects of an SEC player. This week: LSU QB Joe Burrow.
“You could tell last year early that the offense wasn’t a fit for him. He looked and played uncomfortable. They opened it up in November last year, and he started to look like a guy who might get drafted. Now he’s in everyone’s 1st round. It’s more than just the arm talent and accuracy – don’t get me wrong, those are important.
“I love this guy’s toughness, his moxie, his leadership. The way players rally around him. Those guys are tremendous to have in a locker room. He has been taught well, and has been around an RPO system since high school. He knows what to do, and what to look for. He knows the concepts of the passing game and the RPO’s place in it.
“It’s fun as hell to watch him read defenses and choose. He’s getting more polished, more precise, week after week. If you’re a team that’s jumping on the RPO game, he’s your guy. But I also think he can work in a typical spread system. He’s throwing in 4- and 5-wide sets. We’re all looking for the next (Tom) Brady, and I’d hate to compare anyone to him. But he has that steel trap, football IQ mind like Brady, no doubt about that.”
7. Powered up
This week’s SEC power poll (and one big thing):
1. LSU: Close win over Auburn best thing that could have happened to LSU heading into bye week. Keeps Tigers hungry.
2. Alabama: I have no doubt QB Tua Tagovailoa will play against LSU. But how weakened will his injured ankle be?
3. Georgia: Gut-check time for the Dawgs, who haven’t played a complete game all season. Now is the best time to unwrap it.
4. Florida: Gators coach Dan Mullen jabbed Georgia all offseason. Time to put up or choke down another loss to the Dawgs.
5. Auburn: Bo Nix’s progression has been slow (and tedious) against elite teams. He has to get better, quicker, with Georgia and Alabama on the horizon.
6. Texas A&M: Aggies are holding serve in games they should win (UTSA and South Carolina are next), until 2 games they shouldn’t (at Georgia, at LSU) arrive.
7. Missouri: It just got significantly harder for Missouri to win the SEC East – and the Tigers haven’t played Georgia and Florida.
8. Tennessee: A 3-win team is the No. 8 team in the SEC. Why, you ask? They’re 8th-best – and because they’ll have 7 wins by the end of the season.
9. South Carolina: Now Gamecocks to win 3 of next 4 (vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Appalachian State, at Texas A&M, vs. Clemson) just to get bowl eligible. That’s a tall order.
10. Ole Miss: Rebels have a bye week to get healthy and ready for a brutal stretch run. The goal for the last month of the season: play QB John Rhys Plumlee more, not less.
11. Mississippi State: Bulldogs have lost 4 in a row and TB Kylin Hill has gained 242 yards in those games. See the correlation?
12. Kentucky: Lynn Bowden Jr. will play in the NFL. Not as a quarterback, but a wide receiver. You don’t do what he’s doing without the league noticing.
13. Vanderbilt: Find a good rotation with QBs Riley Neal and Mo Hasan and stick with it.
14. Arkansas: This home game vs. Mississippi State might be the Hogs’ best shot at winning a league game this season.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: Why do you think it hasn’t clocked with Chad Morris at Arkansas? I’m getting really tired of hearing about how he loves the effort.
Carlton Jackson
Little Rock
Carlton: I’m guessing Morris is getting really tired of walking into his quarterback room and seeing noting but ineffective play.
There’s no way of getting around it: Morris walked into a roster that was built to run the ball like Wisconsin, and his style is 180 degrees opposite. Turning over a roster like that is difficult, but even more so if you can’t win a few conference games in the first 2 years to sustain small growth steps.
They’re not winning a game or 2 here or there because they can’t get smart, mistake-free quarterback play. Nick Starkel wasn’t the answer, nor was Ben Hicks. Now Morris has moved to John Stephens Jones to run more zone read principles and slow down the game.
Arkansas won’t fix its quarterback problem until 2020, when Chandler Morris (Chad’s son and an elite QB Clemson wanted) arrives on campus. Unfortunately, that also means Arkansas isn’t winning an SEC game until 2020.
9. Numbers game
7. Florida DEs Jonathan Greenard and Jabari Zuniga have missed most or all of the past 2 games, and the Florida pass rush (and defense) has suffered because of it.
They have combined for 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, and when they’re on the field, the Gators can play more combination coverages in the back end because they can get home with the rush by using the front 4.
Without Greenard and Zuniga, the Gators have had to gamble more with various blitz packages. Both players are probable to play vs. Georgia.
10. Quote to note
LSU coach Ed Orgeron on the looming game with Alabama, which has beaten the Tigers 8 consecutive games: “We know what’s upon us.”
this opening description saying no way uga loses and exaggerates every fla flaw as if uga has none…
It literally says every single flaw UGA has. From play calling to execution. I want my DAWGS to win but if y’all win- I’m a Gator for one Saturday during the SEC championship.
Yeah, from the way he’s talking you’d think it’s a 14 point spread and that Florida is limping into Jacksonville.
On the other hand, he is being fairly critical about Jake’s erratic 1st half of the season and the pitiful offensive execution.
I think he’s probably wrong in defining this season as the end all-be all for Kirby. I just think that if we lose to UF and sort of keep sleepwalking the rest of the year (which probably means a loss to Auburn), then Kirby will have to swallow the messed up season and adapt his team to the new age of football. And I think if the aforementioned doom and gloom does come to pass, then Kirby will. He’s not an idiot, and he spent nearly a decade with the GOAT, whose greatest abilities were recruiting and hiring the best OC/DCs year in and year out. Saban adapted, and so can Smart. Dabo’s biggest key was building an elite core of assisants, and keeping them, and Kirby will learn to apply that principle not just to guys like Pittman, Lanning, and Schumann, but to whomever can take his offense to the level it’s capable of.
Kirby is fine. He’s still figuring out how to build his empire. As someone above stated, he learned from the best. I believe changes will be made after this season. But he’s recruiting very well and he’s a solid coach.
I think the UF UGA game is pretty even right now. UGA has a better run game, but UF throws it better. If UF is healthy, they have a great shot. I’m interested to see how Mullen uses his QB’s. If he doesn’t mess it up like he did against LSU, they could win this thing. UGA has to get more imaginative with their play calling. Weather shouldn’t be a factor this week.
LSU won cause of refs and that’s that. But nonetheless they still believe they can contend with bama
LOL. Well one thing’s for certain, we sure won’t be getting any officiating help in our next game.
If LSU beats Alabummer the whole inbred Gump nation will be on suicide watch.
At the very least, Kirby will have to get rid of that awful offensive coordinator. I think his inability to hire a good OC is his biggest flaw.
Unwillingness not inability. There’s a lot of talent on that roster with another 1600 pounds of highly rated O linemen, Marcus Rosemy, Kendall Milton, and a host of other ballers on the way. That should make an OC pretty hopeful about good performances.
He had Chaney. The fact he went away from him was dumb. And Chaney’s time at Tennessee is starting to show that.
Nothing scares me more than a preseason top-5 UGA team. They never seem to finish close to that.
UGA has better recruiting but they’ve always “done less with more.” FLA has been playing like the better team this year.
If Kirby insists on running the ball 90% of the time (which he will) then he better hope that FLA D-line doesn’t show up or it’s gonna be tough sledding.
I have been thinking the same thing about this for Kirby. Everyone has been drinking the KoolAid but people are starting to question the recipe. Beating Florida makes everything taste better. Don’t screw it up Coach.
I know it wouldn’t be a good thing for TN but I really want to see UGA get a good OC. It’s just sort of a shame to have all that talent be mishandled.
How in the name of the Power Poll is Kentucky No. 12 and Missouri No. 7. It wasn’t even close and it’s not like Missouri had built up a ton of capital prior to the game.
Make your own power poll. You are just as qualified as anyone else.
If Fromm and WRs can get something going that will open up the playbook. The running game will be able to be executed with less UF guys in the box.
If Fromm amd WRs are still struggling to sync then UGA better hope their o-line can pave the way. UF will then stack the box and bring a ton of pass rush(SCAR did) on Fromm cause like any QB they struggle with a guy in their face.
UF will dink and dunk it down the field with a mix of runs and occasionally take a shot or two to make the D respect it. UGA D probably found their mojo again after last week. This will be extremely low scoring and probably whoever has ball last will win with a walk off field goal. I think UGA is the more desperate team but I really love Mullens game plans every week. Close but UGA with their back against the wall gets it done.
UF 24 UGA 27
Dink and dunk and that’s UGA this yr lol UF since Tenn game slings all over the field to
Why wouldn’t they with veteran WRs as well coached as well coached as Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, Josh Hammond, Tre Grimes, Tyrie Cleveland etc. And the unguardable cross train beast that is kyle pitts
UGA is trying to dink and dunk but failing to dunk thus far. Mullens is smart. Even when he was at Miss St he has always had the scheme of get first downs. If you focus on getting first downs guess what? Your moving the ball down the field. I am telling you that is his #1 priority. First downs. Then as the defense creeps up to take away the short to intermediate passes then he takes a few shots which he does do often cause defenses creep up alot.
Also just cause Trask is slinging all over the field does not mean that was the main WR target for the play. Most plays have a intermediate route that is the #1 WR for that play and if a deep shot is there then take it if not look to your #2 and #3 WR to dink it off to. Or hit the RB who is usually sitting under the defense as the safety route in case nothing is open
Agreed just saying UF is only behind LSU and Bama in basically any passing stat in the sec
DAWGS!!!!! Dominated the entire game. F the turds
Not sure fromm and WRs get in sync in practice lol esp with 2 vets at CB and Greenard and Zuniga back
They ain’t getting a better QB or WR coach
Mullen vs Coley lol and UGA UGA great D has 4 sacks against last 3 p5 opponents 3 of them against tenn
Surprising when I saw that
And yet the awesome greens rd and Zuniga had ZERO sacks, and pretty much did nothing to affect the outcome! BOOM! Down go the gayturds
I think folks forget Frank’s and the offense as a whole were just terrible last yr I dont see that being the case this yr. Trask has 5 more td passes then Fromm while playing against LSU DBs and Auburn DL then after a bad first half dropped 4 TDs on the cocks and their shutdown D
I’m pretty tired of hearing about UGAs offensive line. From what I’ve seen they are big. That’s it. Sure, they are better in the 4th quarter, mostly, but they’re mediocre, at best, early. Pass protection has been poor, partly because receivers don’t get open/separation, and the run game has been getting worse early in games. 4 turnovers vs anybody, as was the case with SCAR, make it hard to beat anyone. Hopefully they’ll get their act together in Jacksonville. Go Dawgs!
“Pass protection has been poor”??? Really? He’s been sacked 4 times all season. 3 were in the USCjr game. Short yardage run blocking has been bad but pass protection has been pretty stellar.
They’ve been ravaged by injuries. They don’t look good on film because they’re asked to open holes against 8 man boxes. Five vs. 8 will never work.
An yet according the stats kept by Footballoutsiders.com they rank, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 12th in the criteria that measure effectiveness.
Wasn’t it footballoutsiders that had them 12th ranked overall?
Matt Hayes, you lost me with the Justin Fields BS.
Yeah, lets tweak the whole offense for a player who hasn’t proven anything.
Never mind Jake Fromm, the player who just took the team to with in one play, and several ridiculous blown calls of winning the National Championship.
Fromm would’ve left the program, and what QB prospect would want to come play for a coach who threw him under that bus?
I literally just quit reading at that point. Unreal…
You lost me with “several ridiculous blown calls.”
On the Kirby stuff… Ouch.
And Trask should not be called a backup any longer. He currently ranks third in QBR among all SEC quarterbacks.
Every team has their down years, and losing to the no. 6 team in the nation shouldn’t be that big of deal for any coach, even more so if the game is close.. And if the gators lose a tight one to Georgia and play good, they should still be in the top 10 or close to it.. won’t be a big deal, and if we only lose 2 games this year, that is great! Especially coming from what we did only a couple years ago!
First and 10: What happens when Kirby Smart loses the Cocktail Party?
Ftfy Mattt
Well Slak. Kirby won. What happens when Mullet loses the Cocktail Party?