First and 10: Just when you thought it couldn't get worse for Alabama, it just might ...
1. I don’t want to get on a soapbox, but …
Lost amid the terrible injury to Tua Tagovailoa is a larger, more pressing matter: the state of the Alabama program.
For the first time since the transition season of 2007 with new coach Nick Saban, there are real, legitimate questions surrounding the direction of the best program in the game and the best coach in the history of the game.
This isn’t the cracks and fissures of the Ole Miss regular-season losses or the Clemson CFP losses or Kick-6. It’s not losing Kirby to Georgia or the mantle (temporarily) to Dabo or Coach O dog-cussing all things Crimson in the visiting locker room.
It’s a combination of all those body blows, some tearing away at the Tide’s invincibility, and other’s tearing away at the core of what made the program and the coach: better players.
How else can you explain the height of Alabama under Saban (the 2017 recruiting class and 2017 team) with such a star-crossed 3-year run? That 2017 recruiting class – one NFL scout told me 12-15 players from that class will play in the NFL, and as many as 6 could be 1st-round picks – has been the foundation of a 36-3 record since the beginning of the 2017 season.
Here’s what they have to show for it: a national title in 2017 (after Georgia couldn’t hold a 10-point lead in the second half), an SEC Championship in 2018 (after Georgia blew another 10-point lead and Jalen Hurts saved everyone), and what looks like a (relatively) meaningless bowl game in 2019.
In between there has been a humiliating loss to Clemson in the 2018 National Championship Game (where there was a clear passing of the mantle with the Tigers’ 2nd CFP title win over Alabama in 3 years), a spotlight on the magnitude of the loss of top lieutenant Kirby Smart (as a defensive coordinator and ace recruiter) and the emergence of a sleeping giant in the SEC West (LSU).
Dabo Swinney, Smart and Orgeron not only have taken chunks out of the once impenetrable Alabama armor on the field, they’ve also done it where it matters most: recruiting.
For years Saban’s national championships were matched only by his ability to win as many recruiting national titles. He’d stack elite 4- and 5-star recruits from various classes on top of each other on the depth chart like game-day traffic on I-459. He’d then grab what he needed off the glimmer pile of stars for whatever position at whatever point in the season, and the transition would be devastatingly smooth.
Then the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes happened, and what looked like elite groups turned out to be something much different. There was only 1 starter from the 2018 class (CB Patrick Surtain II) last weekend vs. Mississippi State (2 if you count PR Jaylen Waddle) and 6 players from the 2018 class on the 2-deep depth chart (backup DT Christian Barmore will be elite).
Five freshmen from the 2019 class started vs. Mississippi State, and all 5 have struggled at various points of the season and haven’t had the impact of freshmen in previous seasons. Those 2 classes, fair or not, simply don’t have the plug-and-play guys of years past.
And that’s a significant regression in elite talent – at least, by Alabama standards.
One NFL scout told me this weekend that Alabama “has missed on some guys in those two classes. There are a handful of guys who might be a year away, but for the most part, it’s not your typical Alabama haul.”
Meanwhile, Georgia, Clemson and LSU have all surged in recruiting, each landing a critical section of this year’s team from the 2018 and 2019 recruiting classes. More problematic for Alabama: LSU and Clemson are ahead of the Tide in the composite 2020 recruiting class rankings, according to 247Sports.com.
A byproduct of that has been Alabama’s less than mighty look recently in big games. There was the 12-point loss to Auburn in 2017, the 2nd-and-26 win over Georgia, the save us, Jalen, SEC Championship, the 28-point loss to Clemson and the home loss to LSU that snapped a 31-game home winning streak.
“I would never doubt Nick,” an SEC coach told me this weekend. “That team isn’t far off right now.”
2. Teaching time
No one has dealt with coaching turnover over the past few years like Alabama. The Tide have 7 new assistant coaches this season, after getting 6 new assistants in 2018 (that’s right, some guys lasted 1 season).
First, it’s a demanding job. Saban expects nothing but perfection, and rides coaches to both pursue it and coach it. One former Saban assistant told me, “coaching for Nick is like coaching dog years. You spend a couple of years there, it’s like half of your coaching career is gone.”
Secondly, Saban hasn’t been able to truly replace Smart with one assistant. Jeremy Pruitt did a strong job as defensive coordinator on the field (and was a solid recruiter), and Tosh Lupoi was an ace recruiter but overmatched a defensive coordinator.
Smart was more than just an assistant coach, he was a second head coach on the team. Players respected and feared him, much like Saban.
Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Pete Golding isn’t the alpha dog that Smart was, and has had to deal with various issues since he arrived in Tuscaloosa. In 2018, he was brought in to help coordinate the defense, and eventually made a majority of the play calls after it was clear Lupoi wasn’t working out.
This season, the unit has dealt with injuries, including the loss of star LB Dylan Moses. A cerebral player who is like a coach on the field, Moses could have helped the transition of freshmen starters on defense.
Earlier this season, Saban said Golding has “been put in a really, really difficult situation.” And it has shown with the play of the defense over the last two seasons.
3. The biggest change of all, The Epilogue
For those wondering if Alabama can survive the loss of an elite quarterback, we give you these names: John Parker Wilson, Greg McElroy, AJ McCarron, Blake Sims, Jacob Coker, Jalen Hurts. Of that group, only McCarron lasted more than a cup of coffee in the NFL, but 3 won national titles. Both Hurts and Tagovailoa figure to spend a good amount of time in the NFL.
Translation: Saban has won national titles with game mangers before, he can do it again.
But could he do it this season with Mac Jones and/or Taulia Tagovailoa?
We’re probably not going to get to see it.
The injury to Tua Tagovailoa will likely be viewed the same as a loss to Mississippi State by the College Football Playoff committee until they see otherwise (see: no Tua, no dice). In other words, unless Jones and/or Taulia Tagovailoa can prove they can go into Auburn and win big (and show the CFP they’re the safer choice than a 1-loss Pac-12 champion or a 1-loss Big 12 champion), Alabama’s team is the big loser in the Tua Tagovailoa injury.
The program that looked like it was headed for at least 2 national titles with those stars from the 2017 class, could end up out of the CFP and New Year’s 6 Bowls – and playing in a bowl game in Orlando.
4. November surge
It’s the last month of the regular season, and that can only mean the emergence of Georgia QB Jake Fromm.
Want to know what to expect from Georgia this weekend against Texas A&M, in its last significant obstacle before a CFP play-in game against LSU in the SEC Championship Game? A big game from Fromm.
In 11 career November games, Fromm has thrown 21 TDs and only 2 INTs, and has a 10-1 record (including 4-1 vs. ranked teams). The only loss was in 2017, his freshman season, at Auburn.
Fromm made up for that loss a couple of weeks later with a big performance in the SEC Championship Game win over Auburn.
“November are the games you remember, we all know that,” Fromm said. “I don’t think it’s just me. I think we’re extra zeroed in because those are the games that can make or break your season.”
5. The Weekly Five
Five picks against the spread (only 3 games are on the board, but we’ll make up for it in Rivalry Week):
- Texas A&M at Georgia (-15)
- LSU (-44.5) at Arkansas
- Tennessee (+4.5) at Missouri
Last week: 4-0-1
Season: 30-30-1
6. Your tape is your résumé
An NFL scout breaks down a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: an update on Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa:
“The injuries were a concern before this latest terrible hip problem. That’s a tough deal to recover from, and it’s going to take time. The problem is they’re all lower body injuries. Does he have chronic ankle issues? If so, that’s going to be an issue driving the ball. Some guys will tell you chronic ankle injuries lead to knee injuries. Will his hip be completely healed? That’s an accuracy thing, because he’s one of those quarterbacks whose game is built around his ability to move in the pocket and throw, and move outside the pocket and throw on the run.
“He also had that finger problem early on in his career. You start to wonder, is this guy injury-prone? There are so many questions for him now. Used to be his only question was is all that Alabama talent on offense making him look good, or vice-versa. I feel really bad for the guy, but you’re talking about teams spending a high draft pick on him. They’re going to poke and prod from every angle.”
7. Powered up
This week’s SEC Power Poll (and one big thing).
1. LSU: The defensive lapses haven’t cost the Tigers yet, but don’t think it can’t happen in the SEC Championship Game and/or the CFP.
2. Georgia: The deep ball catch by freshman WR Dominick Blaylock was big for confidence – both Blaylock and Fromm, looking for a big target.
3. Florida: Beat FSU in 2 weeks, and there’s a chance Dan Mullen could win 21 games in his first 2 season – 1 from Urban Meyer’s school record 22.
4. Alabama: The Tide have way too many weapons on offense for backup QB Mac Jones to try and win it himself. Stay focused, make smart throws.
5. Auburn: The season for QB Bo Nix has been way too inconsistent. Makes you wonder why Joey Gatewood didn’t get an opportunity before he left?
6. Texas A&M: The Aggies are this high by default. If Texas A&M and Tennessee played today, I’m not sure A&M wins.
7. Tennessee: Mizzou is reeling; Vols must take care of the ball. Mizzou needs help to score points – specifically, Tennessee turnovers. Protect the ball at all cost.
8. Kentucky: The Wildcats are doing all of this with a one-dimensional offense that absolutely can’t throw with any semblance of efficiency.
9. Missouri: Tigers can’t continue to waste a strong defensive line with an offense that can’t put drives together.
10. South Carolina: If the South Caroline president and AD didn’t come out and support coach Will Muschamp, he’d be the perfect replacement for Saban’s DC.
11. Ole Miss: There’s just so much to like about freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee and it leaves this glaring question: Where does former starter Matt Corral transfer?
12. Mississippi State: Wins over Abilene Christian and Ole Miss salvages a bowl season and gets those critical 15 practices.
13. Vanderbilt: As good an Xs and Os coach as Derek Mason is, this season has underscored a lack of playmakers in Nashville.
14. Arkansas: I thought Bret Bielema would be a perfect fit, and Chad Morris could make it work. Maybe it’s time to go back to Houston Nutt.
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: I’d sure hate to see Alabama not get a Playoff spot because of an injured quarterback. Does the committee take that into consideration? If Alabama beats Auburn, can they still get to the Playoff? We whooped Arkansas with Mac Jones, and I know it’s Arkansas, but Jones proved he could play.
Gil Gilbertson
Birmingham
Gil: Alabama could still reach the Playoff (see above), but I believe the SEC’s only chance to get 2 teams in the CFP now looks like this: LSU and Georgia both win out, then Georgia beats LSU in the SEC Championship Game. In that scenario, Georgia would be in as the 12-1 SEC Champion with late victories over Florida, Auburn and LSU. And LSU would be in as a 12-1 runner-up with 4 wins over ranked teams. If that same scenario plays out and LSU beats Georgia, then only LSU is in the Playoff – unless some strange things happen (among them: both Utah and Oregon lose once, Minnesota loses again, Oklahoma loses).
9. Numbers game
51. The one big question with No. 1 LSU: the defense. If the points allowed per game (23.8) isn’t a concern, just remember this number: 51. The Tigers are 51st in the nation in opponent long scrimmage plays, with 133 over 10 games – that’s 13.3 plays of 10-plus yards per game. More disturbing: LSU has given up 47 plays of 20-plus yards (4.7 per game), and a whopping 7 plays of 50 or more.
10. Quote to note
Missouri coach Barry Odom: “Same with my two sons at the house. If they’re not doing the things they need to, there is some sort of consequence for that. There are ways you try to fix those problems. We have to keep doing it.”
I really hope and pray that Tua gets fully healthy. If he does, I can’t imagine him not being a first round pick. His arm is simply too good. Maybe he gets lucky and falls a bit while ending up with a team with a good OLine.
The draft will occur long before he is healthy. Some team will need to take a leap of faith.
Recovery time is said to be 3-6 months. He won’t be very far off.
I don’t that is accurate.
It’s what the Rams team doctor said.
From USA Today, sources from the hospital where Tua had his surgery (Their Chief of Orthopedic surgery)
“Especially because, even under ideal circumstances, Tagovailoa isn’t expected to resume normal football activities for another 6-9 months.”
When Tua replaced Hurts during the 2017 title game, he didn’t start very well. He looked a little shaky to begin. We sacked him and I was gloating, “maybe Joe Namath has eligibility left!”.
Moral of the story… never, ever count out this coach and this team. Make the playoff? It wouldn’t shock me if Alabama won the 2019 national championship.
I agree with you. Nothing is EVER out of reach with Saban.
So much doom and gloom… Bama should just shut the program down…
Over the last 10 years Bama has dominated the CFB scene like no one ever has. It’s unfair to suggest that the dominance should last forever. Even so, I wouldn’t throw dirt on the grave as yet.
Jeez, Matt, why doesn’t Saban just shut it down and move to Mexico? Dabo, Kirby, and Coach O would be the first to tell you that they’re not walking easy yet. They are taking the right steps, but it would take more than one off season to write off the Tide, as much as it pains me to say that.
Also totally fascinated by your logic in placing Florida over Bama? I would hold in that ice cold take until the Iron Bowl when you can compare common opponents.
According to Matt its basically time for Bama to just roll over and play dead
It’s crazy how he looks at everything “Bama” in a negative light. Bama is currently 9-1. They went 14-1 last year and won the NC the year before. They recruited the top ranked class last year as well…
This doom and gloom is to get clicks from opposing teams fans that want to hold out hope that the Tide is done..
It’s no surprise to see UGA and Florida fans taking the bait. I’m a little surprised we didn’t have some LSU and Auburn fans drooling over it though.
Let me get this straight…You start the article claiming you dont want to get on a soapbox, yet that’s exactly what the whole article was…And you, just like the rest of the media, are the first to claim “kinks in the armor”, “the dynasty is dead”, “the game has passed Saban by”, etc every time Bama loses a game…It dont happen very much at all…But yall act like Bama is simply supposed to win every single game they play, every single year…That’s just ignorant, because its impossible…This team has lost twice in the last two years, and have had to deal with more injuries this year than most teams deal with in a decade…Get over yourself and start tipping your hats to the teams that beat us…LSU was phenomenal two weeks ago against us…That team they have is fantastic…Yet they still won by 5 points…If they are the best team in the country (like most people deservedly think they are), than how does that mean that we are not at least deserving of a playoff spot?…If Bama goes into Auburn and wins convincingly at Jordan-Hare stadium, I guarantee ya they get in as the 4 seed (if LSU wins out)
BAMA is good. But they were scary with Tua at QB. Watching them get going in the 2nd half of the LSU game made my not want to see them again in the playoffs (a double jeopardy for the Tigers). However, without Tua … Its hard to make the case for #4
They weren’t scary.. Dude never could win the big one.. He sucked when playing top 10 teams..
Tua won a natty as a true freshman coming off the bench with a deficit. Doesn’t get much bigger than that, champ. Also, ask Oklahoma and Kyler Murray how they feel about Tua. Or how about blowing out LSU in Baton Rouge last year 29-0?
@freezingcoldtakes
Who wrote this garbage? Hey bro, your UGA boner is showing.
I created this profile just to tell you how ridiculous you sound in this article. You’re calling out close wins to UGA in 17/18 like they diminished the tide. Had it been anyone else you would have praised them for those close wins. But since it’s bama I guess they aren’t supposed to win close or lose every now and then even against other elite teams who are ALWAYS gonna give bama tneir best game? You should reconsider journalism.
Well all good things must end sometime or the other.. I think it will be great for football again when Alabama is no longer in the playoff picture every year.. Fans from other teams want to see someone different In the NC game, not the same boring crap we’ve seen lately.. I think most people who aren’t Alabama fans will agree.. So who’s next? Bring on someone new..
I think that’s why there’re always Saban rumors every year. We don’t think he’s actually going anywhere, we just want him to
I didn’t realize the lack of production from the last two classes. They are going to lose a bunch of players to the draft and it doesn’t look like the pipeline is as full as it used to be. Clemson, UGA, LSU, and even A&M are recruiting at a high level. Bama isn’t getting almost every single player they want anymore. The #1 TE was thought to be a Bama lock but recently committed to LSU, when is the last time that happened. Saban said before the LSU game that something was off it didn’t seem like his team was confident. Bama isn’t going away but their invincibility is gone. Their recent losses aren’t flukes like the Manziel A&M an Ole Miss loses. Having more teams in the mix is good for the sport.
Recent losses, you mean the two losses over a two year span? Wow, really starting to sink, huh? Losing to Manziel and Ole Miss was worse because those teams had no business beating Bama, now we lose to number 1 Clemson and number 1 LSU and things are worse?
Btw, we just picked up the number 1 dual threat QB in the nation (Bryce Young), in addition to having Tua’s brother and Mac Jones. Who’s next in line at UGA and LSU?
Another example of how foolish it is to think there’s a media bias in favor of Alabama. The media have been telling this story for years waiting for Bama to fade so they can start a new story line with new teams. They hate that Bama forces them to continue to cover their success.
These are the same people who blame the media for overreacting when the fans are perfectly happy sitting back and letting it play out
Saban had plenty going for him just a few years ago that he doesn’t have now…
First. It was Les Miles and his inability to field a good much less great passing game. Miles held that offense back, and it was to the benefit of Alabama. Now everybody expects LSU to compete with Alabama next year and into the future.
Second. Saban dominated SEC recruiting with 7 straight No.1 recruiting classes, then Kirby left for Georgia and two recruiting cycles later (2018) he took the No.1 recruiting class, and worse knocked Saban’s class back to No. 5 with his worst per player average of 91.94.
Just a few short years ago everybody knew Alabama would sign the best recruiting class, and they would very likely win the West and the SEC championship.
Now, they wonder if they will do either…
Yet Bama still brought in the number 1 class just last year… So he had one year without the top recruiting class and that’s bad?
Bama hasn’t won the conference or division every year Saban has been at Bama. They haven’t won the NC every year and have only went undefeated once… All I see here is people praying for the Tide to be on a downward trajectory but if you actually look at where the Tide is this year you really should be worried about your own team not Bama.
Bama is currently playing more freshmen than any team in FBS so that experience is going to pay off come next year. Bama will also return their injured started next year and failing to live up to “expectations” this year is just going to drive Saban to get back to that Bama standard come next year…
Bama doesn’t lose to unranked sub .500 teams at home…. That seems like a bigger concern to me.
“All I see here is people praying for the Tide to be on a downward trajectory”
As if the trajectory is still pointing straight up.
Nothing has changed. They didn’t get Gorilla stomped by Clemson.
They didn’t just lose the West, again. And to LSU for the first time in what is it, 8 years?
Saban is not really 0-2 against ranked teams.
Your perception hasn’t changed, and despite recent and even future results, I doubt it will before Saban retires.
Many who keep up with CFB see things trending in a different way…
Lose the West again? We won it last year. And is Bama only defined by never letting LSU win a game? 8 years not enough? Gotta keep winning every single year? Why don’t you apply that standard to your team and see if you can prevent another devastating loss to South Carolina.
Bama has lost the West twice in the last three years, so lose again, would be appropriate.
The point is LSU may be closing the gap as evident by Bama losing to them. Whether that’s an actual trend will be seen.
What does losing the south carolina have to do with anything? Losing to south carolina didn’t keep georgia from winning the eat, or playing for a shot at playoff. It was a bad loss, but devastating? Come on. Stop grasping for straws for the straw man you’re trying to build
Saban isn’t 0-2 against ranked teams and like I pointed out Bama has had one undefeated season under Saban so Bama losing a game isn’t a Change in trajectory…
Bama didn’t win the west In 2010, 2011, 2013 or 2017… That didn’t change the directory of the program either..
It’s exactly what I said. You’re praying for a downward trajectory..
What does losing to SC have to do with a anything?
What has UGA recruting rankings been under Kirby? Yet he loses at home to a sub .500 team. Think about that a second. Losing to NC Clemson and currently number one LSU is Bama crumbling yet UGA gets beat by SC?
Yeah right..
Alatide, they lost it in 2017. Won it in 2018, and then lost it “again” in 2019.
1 out of three ain’t bad, but how long since Bama lost the West 2 out of 3?
Nobody’s saying Alabama’s not a good program.
It’s just not as dominating or intimidating as before.
In 2009-2013 Bama won the west twice… That period of time is considered by many as the Best period for Bama under Saban.
They won the NC 3 times during that span so if you actually look at it without Some form of bias you would see the situation now isn’t any different…
It was the same garbage when Auburn won In 2013 then in 2015 Bama was the NC again…
Tim,
Good analysis. Bama is definitely on the downward trend. The only ones who can’t see it are Bama fans. Sad.
What’s sad is that you think you actually know what’s going to happen…
Don’t worry so much about Bama… You should worry more about UGA losing to teams like SC…
BubbaTurd,
One thing that’s for certain is that Bama certainly doesn’t have to worry about the playoff, since they are are not good enough to be the 4th team. Just like you’ll never have to worry about having children, since no one is likely to give you the opportunity.
Why all this negative vibe towards Bama? With the assistants Saban has lost, on an annual basis, his success should be celebrated throughout college football. Bama’s players commit to Saban and Tuscaloosa. Same thing with Dabo and Clemson, as well as Coach O. How many others are on the list? Not many. Mullen could get there, Kirby seems poised to get there and, even Pruitt, nah. My goodness, Saban and Alabama have made college football what it is in 2019. They haven’t won every game, they are “sore losers” when they do lose but, they are responsible for the level of fan interest we have today and the media access we have. I chuckle when they lose. My team lost not one, but two heartbreakers to them, but their success has made our game better.
BAMA hasn’t lost its dominance. It’s just that other teams are becoming more dominant as well. Everyone thinks cause my tigers won, it is done. But I’m sure Alabama is going to be fighting right there next year and many years to come while Saban remains head coach. What they do not need to do is get mad because Saban hasn’t won it in like a 4 year span and fire him. That would officially end the dynasty in my opinion. I like it when there is no clear path to the playoff. Makes it more exciting. I don’t like BAMA but saying they aren’t good or the dynasty is over is dumb.
Also, my money is on Auburn against bama now that Tua is hurt (I hope he make a full recovery). I think they are much less able without tua. It just goes to show how good he is.
What are you even talking about? Four year span?… He just won the conference last year and the NC in 2017… Also it funny because at one point you didn’t have a LSU logo beside your name… STFU
Oh I remember you now… You’re the dumba$$ that talks to himself….