First impressions of each SEC game in Week 12
Cake Week. It’s here.
No, it’s not “Cupcake Week.” It’s Cake* Week.
Why? Well, as I’ve been saying for the last 4 years, cupcakes aren’t something you feast on. You eat one, and if you’re self-conscious about food ending up all over your face, you try to avoid eating them in public.
But cake? You feast on cake. You eat it without shame.
This SEC slate in Week 12 is the “you play in the toughest conference in the sport, so go feast” week of the calendar.
On the bright side, there are only 3 SEC games involving FCS foes this year. On the not-so-bright side, there are only 4 conference games.
Still, though, I’ve got first impressions of all 10 games on the slate in Week 12:
Florida vs. Vanderbilt — Florida, learn from Kentucky
As in, don’t sleep on the Dores. Clark Lea’s squad got its first SEC win of the decade because it got pressure on Will Levis and Mike Wright was dynamic both on-script and off-script. I don’t know that it was necessarily Kentucky underestimating a squad who had 26 consecutive losses, but whatever the case, Florida isn’t good enough to keep Vandy at an arm’s length with mediocre effort. The Gators look significantly improved up front on both sides of the ball, and Anthony Richardson is developing into a much more reliable player. Florida can’t afford to squander a whole lot of late-season momentum with a flat showing in Nashville.
Austin Peay vs. Alabama — Let’s see some Jalen Milroe passing
I wouldn’t care if Alabama decided to rest Bryce Young in this one. That won’t happen, but against Austin Peay without any sort of Heisman Trophy or Playoff to play for, I wouldn’t hate it. I say that as someone who is already bummed that he’s likely off to the NFL at season’s end. I’d love seeing Milroe get a ton of reps to air it out. The perceived next quarterback up got some valuable reps when Young had the shoulder injury, and we saw what those weaknesses were. Ball security is still an issue, and he doesn’t have that sense for backside pressure yet. In a setting as favorable as this, it’d be nice to see Milroe add to those 57 career pass attempts with an early entrance.
East Tennessee vs. MSU — The offense feels like it needs a get-right game
In 3 of the last 4 games, MSU’s offense scored a single touchdown. I don’t think it’s fair to chalk that up to the presence of chairs on the sideline, either. I think it’s fair to attribute it to defenses making adjustments. It probably doesn’t help that the ground game that showed signs of life in the first half of the season has totally gone by the wayside. In the last 4 games, MSU has 69 rushes for 144 yards (2.1 yards per carry). Expectations for a Mike Leach ground attack are always low, but it’d be a welcome sight to see MSU stay committed to that in its most favorable matchup of the year.
UMass vs. Texas A&M — Not even Jimbo Fisher can mess this up (I think)
I mean, UMass is a disaster right now. Don Brown’s program is 0-9 against FBS competition in 2022. A 20-3 win against 2-7 Stony Brook is the lone victory of the season. In other words, even an A&M squad who plays with its future recruits should be able to win this one. The Aggies might not have reached 30 points in an FBS game in over a year — it’s 12 consecutive games — but they’re 34.5-point favorites for a reason. If Fisher can’t somehow dial up a winning formula in which the offense shows signs of life, well, I’d say that’d be a new low. Somehow.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina — There’s no world in which South Carolina is built for a shootout
When South Carolina allowed at least 28 points under Shane Beamer, it went 0-8. Three of those losses game this year. Why do I bring that up? Oh, no big reason. Just for the simple fact that the nation’s No. 1 scoring offense is coming to town and it hit 34 points in 12 of its last 13 games. It’s the classic “nothing’s gotta give” matchup, which is why the Vols are 3-touchdown favorites on the road. The idea of Spencer Rattler keeping pace with Hendon Hooker sounds daunting because it is. The last thing the South Carolina offense needs is for Marcus Satterfield to feel like he needs to crank up the passing volume.
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas — Are we sure the Hogs are making it to a bowl game?
The postseason is by no means a given for Arkansas with perhaps an angry Ole Miss team coming to town this week and then a road trip to face a challenging Mizzou defense on Black Friday. One would think that KJ Jefferson will have a better shot at playing this week than he did against LSU. Fortunately, Jefferson didn’t have to face 60 minutes of Harold Perkins. The Ole Miss defense is a bit more forgiving, though it did just hold Bryce Young to less than 7 yards per pass attempt. If Jefferson can’t return or if he’s at less than 100%, I wouldn’t feel very confident that Malik Hornsby or Cade Fortin can lead the Hogs to a win against a solid Ole Miss squad. And if that doesn’t happen, we’re suddenly talking about playing for bowl eligibility at Mizzou.
That’s not the way Sam Pittman hoped to start his first year on his new contract.
Georgia vs. Kentucky — Jalen Carter vs. this Kentucky offensive line … yikes
It just seems unfair. When Carter is healthy, I believe he’s Georgia’s best player. Yes, even better than Brock Bowers. Carter dominates from the inside in a way that’s reminiscent of 2018 Quinnen Williams. That feels like bad news against a Kentucky offensive line that’s been way more “big blue gate” than “big blue wall” in 2022. No Power 5 team in America has allowed more sacks than Kentucky in 2022. Combine that with Will Levis not having his full mobility and you’ve got a potentially disastrous scenario that could unfold in Lexington. If Kentucky doesn’t make serious adjustments to somehow contain Carter, who has been on a tear since he returned from his knee injury, this could be a “draft me in the top 3” game for the Georgia defensive lineman.
Western Kentucky vs. Auburn — The forward pass is overrated
In the last 2 games with Cadillac Williams as the head coach, Auburn has basically abandoned the passing attack, and with good reason. The running game always has been the strength of this offense. It’s only fitting that Williams is all in with it. In the last 2 games, Auburn’s pass attack is 13-for-35 for 135 yards (3.9 yards per attempt) compared to a ground game that ran the ball 101 times for 526 yards (5.2 yards per attempt). That’s telling. Against Western Kentucky? That won’t change. Tyson Helton’s squad is tied for the FBS lead with 17 interceptions. Meanwhile, WKU is No. 62 in FBS against the run. Even though that spread is only a touchdown in Auburn’s favor, this should be a service academy-like plan of attack from Auburn, and dare I say, a successful one.
New Mexico State vs. Mizzou — It’s gotta be time for Sam Horn to get some reps, right?
Was Brady Cook, Sam Horn or even Chase Daniel going to make it a 60-minute game against that Tennessee offense? No way. Cook actually showed off his mobility, which was encouraging. Not so encouraging? A 2022 season in which Mizzou ranks No. 12 in the SEC in passing. Cook isn’t the quarterback of the future, and I’d be surprised if Eli Drinkwitz were the play-caller of the future. Might that mean we see Horn get his first reps of his college career? Mizzou has, at most, 3 games left in 2022, so we know that Horn is going to preserve his redshirt no matter what. It seems like a matchup against a New Mexico State team who was outscored 106-7 by Power 5 teams in 2022 would be an obvious opportunity for the highly touted true freshman to see the field.
UAB vs. LSU — I’d really try to limit Harold Perkins’ reps
Wait, what? Why? Selfishly, I’d love to see Perkins harass quarterbacks all day, every day. But this is more about the long-term impact of a player who, as we found out from the postgame press conference, dealt with the flu and still played the game of his life. Perkins played 67 snaps against Alabama and he played another 65 against Arkansas. He has career highs in snaps in each of LSU’s last 3 games, which makes perfect sense. Against a UAB squad sitting at 2-4 against Conference USA competition, I’d hope the true freshman’s services aren’t needed a whole lot. We know that any path that LSU has to beating Georgia to win the SEC and make the Playoff involves Perkins being the best version of himself. Any effort to make sure that happens seems like a smart one.