O'Gara: First impressions of every SEC Rivalry Week game
Rivalry Week. It’s a beautiful thing.
Sure, it’s terrifying that this is the last week of the regular season and we’re soon not going to be able to have our entire Saturdays filled with coast-to-coast American college football. We’re not a fan of that.
What we are a fan of this juicy slate of Rivalry Week matchups in the SEC.
Here are my early impressions:
No. 12 Ole Miss at Mississippi State — The Egg Bowl quietly has some significant stakes
Ole Miss is trying to get a bit of chaos to sneak into a New Year’s 6 Bowl game. Mississippi State is trying to create a little bit of chaos to sneak into any bowl game. So yes, the stakes are high. After all, it’s the Egg Bowl. It’s begging for a bit of weirdness on Thursday night to cap off Thanksgiving. “Weirdness” could be interim coach extraordinaire Greg Knox, who led the Bulldogs to a bowl game victory over Lamar Jackson 6 years ago, getting carried off the field after another upset win. Alternatively, we could see Ole Miss get some revenge after last season’s late collapse in Oxford. Either way, Thursday at 7:30 ET on ESPN is the place to be.
No. 10 Mizzou at Arkansas — How healthy is that Mizzou defense?
Lost in the shuffle of that dramatic comeback win was that Mizzou’s depleted defense nearly let a backup quarterback from a 5-win Florida team cost the Tigers a shot at a New Year’s 6 Bowl. So against another mobile quarterback in KJ Jefferson, how will the Tigers look on short rest? Ty’Ron Hopper was ruled out against Florida after getting banged up a week earlier and linebacker Chad Bailey is already out for the year with a season-ending injury. The Gators gashed Mizzou for 261 rushing yards, which needs to get cleaned up against an Arkansas ground game that’s had a frustrating year, but is still talented when healthy.
Kentucky at No. 9 Louisville — This ain’t Scott Satterfield’s Louisville. It’s Jeff Brohm’s Louisville.
That’s not ideal for Mark Stoops and the Cats, who owned the previous version of their in-state rival. Brohm’s version is much more efficient on offense at 6.7 yards per play. Kentucky is No. 91 against the pass and is No. 96 in opposing QB rating. That’s not ideal. Louisville has the type of balance that can adjust well to a defense’s weakness. Also not ideal? Louisville is No. 18 in the country in scoring defense, which is very un-Brohm-like. Kentucky’s sputtering offense is going to have to play the game of its season if it wants to go on the road and end the ACC Championship-bound Cardinals’ outside shot at the Playoff.
Texas A&M at No. 14 LSU — Getting Jayden Daniels 4 more touchdowns is significant
Why? Because it would mean getting to 50 scores. Here’s the list of Power 5 players who have accomplished that feat before the Heisman Trophy ceremony:
P5 players who had 50 pre-Heisman TDs:
-2003 BJ Symons
-2007 Tim Tebow
-2008 Sam Bradford
-2014 Marcus Mariota
-2016 Patrick Mahomes
-2016 Lamar Jackson
-2018 Kyler Murray
-2018 Dwayne Haskins
-2019 Justin Fields
-2019 Jalen Hurts
-2019 Joe BurrowJayden Daniels needs 4 more.
— Connor O’Gara (@cjogara) November 19, 2023
That’s right. Nobody at the Power 5 level has hit that mark since the 2019 season when Joe Burrow, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts did so. All 3 of those guys had the benefit of a conference championship, too. In fact, Mahomes, Jackson, Tebow and Symons were the only Power 5 players who hit 50 pre-Heisman ceremony touchdowns without playing in a conference championship. After Daniels’ 8 touchdown game against Georgia State, it’s clear that Brian Kelly wants his quarterback to earn the award and make a statement that lasts through conference championship weekend, where Daniels will be idle but fellow Heisman front-runners Michael Penix Jr. and possibly Bo Nix will be in action (that’s if Oregon beats Oregon State). Hitting that 50-touchdown mark against an inconsistent A&M defense seems well within reach for Daniels.
No. 8 Alabama at Auburn — Don’t look too far into that New Mexico State performance for forecasting this game
Nothing would be less surprising than Auburn moving past that historical New Mexico State clunker by showing up to the Iron Bowl and making it a 60-minute game. If your argument for why that won’t happen is “the Tigers were terrible last week,” I’d say, if that’s so significant, then why wasn’t Auburn’s domination of Arkansas a factor in the New Mexico State debacle? Let’s also not forget that a week after delivering an epically awful game at Texas A&M, Auburn turned around and played in a 60-minute game against 2-time defending champ Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Weird things happen when the Tide travel to Auburn where the Tide haven’t won a game in regulation since 2015. If you’re projecting/betting on this game, don’t assume we’re going to see the same Auburn team as the one Jerry Kill dominated.
Vanderbilt at No. 25 Tennessee — How much Nico Iamaleava will we get?
Hopefully a lot. I don’t say that to disrespect Joe Milton, who has been a valuable veteran to bridge the Hendon Hooker-to-Iamaleava gap, but let’s be honest. Iamaleava is the future and getting him reps is more important than it is for Milton in his final collegiate regular season game. One would think that a fast start for Milton would prompt Iamaleava, who was frustratingly pulled too early in the UConn win. With the new redshirt rule, Iamaleava can play in the bowl game without it costing against his 4-game redshirt threshold. He’s at 3 games, so one would think Josh Heupel won’t have to worry about that and the Vols should be able to turn the page to 2024.
No. 5 Florida State at Florida — A backup QB bowl? That changes things.
What a bummer that is. Jordan Travis’ injury has to be one of the most devastating of the Playoff era because of the timing. Graham Mertz going down doesn’t have that same significance, but he’s been better than skeptics like myself expected. Having Tate Rodemaker vs. Max Brown in a game with such significant implications feels wrong. FSU is trying to hold on to its undefeated season while Florida is trying to avoid a 5-game losing streak that would cost Billy Napier a shot at the postseason. Florida will have a more mobile option with Brown at quarterback while FSU will have a less mobile option at quarterback with Rodemaker. Will that be just the break the Gators needed to pull off the upset? It’s hard to feel too great about that after Florida surrendered at least 33 points in 5 consecutive games.
No. 1 Georgia at Georgia Tech — This is an incredibly difficult game to coach for Kirby Smart, whether it shows or not.
I say that for a few reasons. One is that obviously, Georgia is the No. 1 team in the country and it gets everyone’s best effort on the road. Two is that the Dawgs are 1 win away from clinching the longest winning streak ever (29 games) by an SEC team, and they’re trying to accomplish that feat against a rival that they beat each of the last 5 opportunities. Three is that the Dawgs are playing a red-hot Alabama team a week later in the SEC Championship, and after the Dawgs suffered 3 injuries on the offensive side of the ball against Tennessee (Ladd McConkey, RaRa Thomas and Tate Ratledge), there’s going to be a strong desire to come out of Saturday as healthy as possible. There are a ton of moving pieces against a Georgia Tech squad who hung tough for the majority of last year’s game in Athens — it was a 13-7 game midway through the 3rd quarter — and should be playing with house money having already clinched a bowl berth.
Clemson at South Carolina — All things considered, this is all Shane Beamer could’ve asked for back in early October
Between mounting injuries, an ineffective offensive line and a thin running back room, think about this. South Carolina has a healthy Spencer Rattler leading the Gamecocks in a bowl-or-bust game against Clemson. It’s a testament to Rattler’s development that he stayed upright and didn’t shut it down when the Gamecocks were 2-6. He’s been excellent amid some suboptimal circumstances. His team will be a touchdown underdog at home against a Clemson team that’s riding a 3-game winning streak of its own since Tyler from Spartanburg lit a fire under the Tigers. Beamer has 8 outright wins as an underdog at South Carolina, all of which came in November or later. If he can pull off another upset, this season will have an entirely different feel than it had a few short weeks ago.