FiveThirtyEight unveils College Football Playoff predictions after Week 5
If FiveThirtyEight’s current projections are to be believed, there won’t be any newcomers to this year’s College Football Playoff.
The analytics website revealed its standings Thursday, using metrics that predict future games and reflect the CFP committee’s decision-making process. Below, you can view FiveThirtyEight’s complete ranking of teams that have at least a one percent chance of winning the national title.
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In the eyes of FiveThirtyEight’s analytics, the CFP would feature Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson — which have all qualified for the playoff in the past two years, with all but Ohio State doing so in 2017. LSU, Kentucky, Auburn and Florida are also listed as possible candidates, giving the SEC six of 21 teams that currently have a shot according to these metrics.
Same guys who said HRC had 99% chance of becoming 45th president.
Important note: The outcome of one scenario does not determine the validity of a predictive method; there is a difference between a prediction’s validity and accuracy. There’s a big difference between a hunch and a data-based, analytical prediction.
An example: Let’s say Jamie predicts Bama to beat Arkansas because Jamie has studied relevant information and it suggests that Bama will win. Let’s say Taylor thinks Arkansas will beat Bama because Taylor likes pigs better than elephants. Then let’s say Arkansas wins. Did Jamie make a bad prediction? No. Did Jamie predict the actual outcome? Also no. Did Taylor make a bad prediction? YES. Did Taylor predict the actual outcome? Also yes. If Jamie and Taylor continue to make predictions using their same methods, whose predictions are more likely to correctly identify the outcomes? Jamie. That’s why his predictions are better – not because he knows the outcome of every game before it occurs, but because he is more likely to anticipate the correct outcome of more games. Now if Taylor only ever cares or pays attention to this one game then Taylor may think that picking winners based on which mascots Taylor prefers is a better method. But Taylor would be wrong. Don’t be like Taylor.
PS
Sorry Arky & everyone named Taylor
PPS
Also, I’m pretty sure they didn’t calculate a probability that was that absurdly high.
F trump!
You may have Trump Derangement Syndrome
u support trump 2??!?!
I respect the United States and the office of the President
I do not respect sYing F trump
oh but at least u know he a h*e…. hope you liked obama..
X
We are blessed to live in the United States. If you don’t care for a candidate vote for the other candidate and be happy you have the right to vote
Of note:
1. This is how they rank these teams’ chances of winning the playoff, not how they rank these teams or how they rank these teams’ chances of making the playoff. All of these are different.
2. Saying that these 4 teams have the 4 highest chances of making the playoff is not the same as saying that these 4 teams are the most likely playoff field. Because the probabilities of Bama and UGA making the playoffs are not truly independent, I would imagine that 538 would predict Bama, osu, clemson, & nd as the single, most likely playoff scenario at this point. However, the odds for any specific playoff scenario are all so long at this point because of all of the unknowns that any such prediction would be insignificant, which is likely why they don’t predict the group of playoff teams, just each team’s odds of making the playoff. Long story short, the first sentence is almost certainly incorrect.