FiveThirtyEight updates projected playoff field following three top 10 upsets
Georgia’s upset loss at LSU not only made it less likely that the SEC would have two teams make the College Football Playoff, it also provided a new picture into how the field could be assembled.
Oregon knocked off Washington, while Michigan State won at Penn State on a Saturday where three top 10 teams lost.
The new playoff rankings, according to FiveThirtyEight, are Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish has a 48 percent chance of making the playoff, while the other tree are sitting at 56 percent or higher.
This model uses the CFP selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning.
As it stands now, the SEC is in a similar position to last year in order to get two SEC teams in the playoff. Alabama would need to miss the SEC Championship as a one-loss Crimson Tide team would likely reach the top four anyway.
There are, of course, several potential potholes for the top four today. Obviously, the Nov. 3 game between Alabama and LSU, and Ohio State’s game against Michigan on Nov. 24 are two of the more notable games down the stretch.