Georgia’s upset loss at LSU not only made it less likely that the SEC would have two teams make the College Football Playoff, it also provided a new picture into how the field could be assembled.

Oregon knocked off Washington, while Michigan State won at Penn State on a Saturday where three top 10 teams lost.

The new playoff rankings, according to FiveThirtyEight, are Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish has a 48 percent chance of making the playoff, while the other tree are sitting at 56 percent or higher.

This model uses the CFP selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. It also uses ESPN’s Football Power Index and the committee’s rankings to forecast teams’ chances of winning.

As it stands now, the SEC is in a similar position to last year in order to get two SEC teams in the playoff. Alabama would need to miss the SEC Championship as a one-loss Crimson Tide team would likely reach the top four anyway.

There are, of course, several potential potholes for the top four today. Obviously, the Nov. 3 game between Alabama and LSU, and Ohio State’s game against Michigan on Nov. 24 are two of the more notable games down the stretch.