Florida flipped the Cocktail Party script, but Gators haven't shifted balance in East. Yet
As Florida’s jubilant players took a victory lap and Dan Mullen leapt into the TIAA Bank Field stands to celebrate No. 8 Florida’s win over No. 5 Georgia on Saturday night, it was easy to see just how much this win meant to the Gators.
It was a massive win for Dan Mullen’s program in a game the third-year head coach simply had to have. Georgia had won 3 consecutive games on the banks of the St. John’s and just closed the Dawgs’ first winning decade in the rivalry since the 1980s. Kirby Smart entered Saturday’s contest 3-0 vs. Dan Mullen as a head coach, and while one of those wins came when Mullen was still head coach at Miss State, all of those wins came in matchups between ranked teams.
Georgia arrived in Jacksonville with questions at quarterback and critical injuries to its best player on defense and best playmaker on offense. The circumstances and trendlines all seemed to favor Florida, which led many in the media and Gator fan base to ask — if Mullen couldn’t best Georgia on Saturday, then when?
When the Gators fell behind 14-0 within 3:30 minutes, there was a sense that mabye this moment was again too big for Florida. It wasn’t.
Behind the unflappable senior Kyle Trask’s 474 passing yards and 4 touchdowns, the Gators ripped of 41 of the next 48 points, storming to a 20-point lead and holding on late for their first win over their rival since 2016, Smart’s first season in Athens.
“We have such an explosive offense, such a great team, top-down,” Trask said after the win. “We just had a lot of confidence, a lot of energy. We went down 14-nothing early and this team had no panic.”
There wasn’t any panic, and as such, there was no Cocktail Party heartbreak this time for the Gators.
In the aftermath, it was tempting to ask if the win shifted the balance of power in the SEC East from Smart’s program in Georgia to Mullen’s in Gainesville. It’s a question that often gets asked when a longtime underdog finally vanquishes a rival, and it’s one that was fair given the way Florida dominated Georgia.
It’s also a bit premature.
If you are a Gators fan, don’t read this like I’m pouring oil on your cheerios or writing through a headache-induced blur of Boone’s Farm. Beating Georiga represented an important and immense obstacle for Florida, and Mullen, the Gators and the fan base should all celebrate the accomplishment. In this difficult year, Florida fans should savor a win over their archrival even more than usual.
But it’s too early to say the balance has shifted in the SEC East.
There are a number of reasons to tap the brakes on the “shift of power” narrative, but let’s start with the obvious one. If Florida doesn’t use this victory as a springboard to win the SEC East, Georgia gets the last laugh.
Mullen knows it. He knows this win in Jacksonville will make fans happy but means little if the Gators can’t close strong and reach Atlanta for the SEC Championship this December.
“It was a big win for us,” Mullen said after the game. “Anytime you have a top-10 matchup, those are big games, so I don’t know the hump. Hopefully, if we can find a way to continue to improve, we might get more top-10 matchups as the year goes on, and we’ll see how that goes. But this puts us in a decent position. We have Arkansas in seven days.”
That’s an Arkansas team that, if you haven’t noticed, has the two things you need to upset Florida: a really good secondary and a very good quarterback. Florida fans might be familiar with Feleipe Franks. He won’t miss the throws Stetson Bennett IV and D’Wan Mathis did Saturday. Lose that game at home, and the Gator goodwill generated Saturday evaporates fast.
But the turning point and power shift conversation isn’t just about what happens this season.
There are still some realities to face for the Gators.
Georgia is the most talented program in the country, per the 247 Composite, a testament to Smart’s reputation as arguably the best recruiter in the sport. Mullen has clawed and fought like crazy to close the gap. When he arrived at Florida, the Gators had the 17th most talented team in the country, talent the staff used so well they went 4-7. Thanks to Mullen’s improved recruiting operation and his willingness and success in using the transfer portal, Florida is now the 7th most talented program in the country. The gap between Florida and Georgia has tightened, and you saw it Saturday, when Florida received multiple winning contributions from depth pieces like tight end Kemore Gamble and freshman running back Nay’Quan Wright.
So yes, math says the Gators have closed the gap, but Florida still loses more 1-on-1 recruiting battles with Smart and Georgia than it wins and as long as that happens, the game in Jacksonville will mostly be a toss-up where Florida has to hope to hace a consistent schematic edge. That can happen, but the better outcome would be for Florida to use this type of win, one where they played modern, fun offense and Georgia looked stuck in a 1980s Vince Dooley twilight zone, to sell their program as the more attractive landing spot. That’s especially important in the Sunshine state, where Smart has outfoxed and outflanked the Florida staff for too many outstanding players since arriving at his alma mater.
Can Florida bridge that recruiting gap? Do results on the field really impact recruiting? All fair questions. Most analysts think long-term program trends impact recruiting more than one game. If that’s true, Florida can sell the changing nature of the sport. It’s an offense-first game now, and Georgia, despite the elite defenses, hasn’t figured it out on that side of the football. What’s more, the Dawgs vaunted defense has now come up woefully short against elite offenses and quarterbacks, from Tua to Jalen Hurts to Joe Burrow to Mac Jones and now, Kyle Trask. If Mullen’s program is more in step with the modern game, maybe that generates a recruiting edge. Time will tell.
For now, it’s too soon to know if the balance has shifted. As Mullen said after the win Saturday: “Last year’s game didn’t affect this year’s game and I don’t know if this year’s game will affect next year’s game.”
What’s clear, after 3 years of top-10 duels on the banks of the St. John’s River, is that we finally have a Floria win in the Cocktail Party again, and with it, the promise of more heavyweight duels to come between Smart and Mullen. That’s fun for everyone, but it’s especially fun for the team taking the victory lap on Saturday night. The Gators hope there are plenty more of those to come in Jacksonville in the future.
I expect the Gators to move up to #5 while Clemson takes the #4 spot. The Gators might move to #4. Either way, it’ll correct itself after the SEC Championship game.
It was a good win. UGA’s defense can’t seem to stop great offenses.
The problem for Florida now is that one fumble in the ATM game which pretty much lost them the game. Now, everytime Florida wins a game, ATM is the team that’s really winning because how can you put Florida above ATM in the polls? Simply because they beat a top 5 team and ATM hasn’t?
The only advantage Florida has over ATM at this point is that the SEC championship will be between Alabama and Florida, so the post season is all still in Florida’s hands, unlike ATM which basically sits back and wins, but has no control over it’s destiny at this point.
Will be an intriguing debate if UF wins out and beats BAMA. All 3 sittin with 1 loss. aTm has played better offense since BAMA loss. UF has played better defense since aTM loss and BAMA would be coming off a Championship game loss. Who goes to the playoff. I think its safe to say SEC champ is in, ND/Clemson is in OSU. That leaves a potential of 1 loss aTm/BAMA/ND or undefeated BYU/Cincy or Pac 12 shortened 6-7 game season. Good luck figuring that scenario.
I mean, polls do that all the time. I have an example including Florida. Two years ago Florida and Kentucky both finished 10-3. Kentucky beat Florida head to head and yet, Florida ended up higher ranked than Kentucky because Florida had better wins. So yes, Florida could be above A&M theoretically.
10-3 would mean after the bowl games. UF and the Aggies cannot finish with the same record. If Florida wins the SEC, they are definitely in the playoffs. If they lose to Bama, they become a two loss team and would most likely be out. If the Aggies win out, they are 9-1 while the Gators could be 9-2 if they lose the CCG, and one of those losses would be to the Aggies.
Mullen has proven to be vastly superior to Kirby when it comes to developing talent. Proof? A zero star QB recruit just made Kirbys 5 star defenders look like clowns.
Yep that’s exactly what happened.
Let’s not be like the liberals and lie about things now. With all due respect Kyle Trask was rated as a 2* recruit.
Okay. Our two star QB made them look like clowns. The point remains the same: Mullen develops players.
True. His scholarship to UF allowed him to recieve two stars. Until then he had 2 scholarship offers and no stars.
Do any of you follow recruiting or just make it up as you go along. Trask was a 3* recruit.
Trask was a two star recruit. Google is your friend…
You should try it. He was a 3* by both the 24/7 composite and ESPN. Nice try though.
As SOS HEAD BALL COACH said
“How come Georgia gets all the recruiting talent and Florida gets all the wins”
Kirby is good recruiter and lousy overrated coach.
2-3 years Kirby is going to be defensive coordinator.
People are catching on that Kirby is very lacking. The smartest players transfer out as soon as they meet him and see how weak of a head coach he is. Recruits should start to catch on that Kirby is sinking and will not be at UGA much longer.
The delusional puppy fan base will be wanting Bangs out by the end of next year. I’ve been saying for a couple of years that Smart is the same as Muschimp. Great recruiter , sub par Head coach, solid defensive coaches. They’re both stubborn in that they put their style of play onto the offense when they shouldn’t go near it.
Great post. What’s weird to me is they both seem to want offenses they would find easy to defend. Never have understood why so many dcs turned head coaches go this “let’s be easy to stop” route.
Dude. They suffered with Mr. Nice Guy Mark Richt for 15 years, pretty much knowing he was never going to get them a national title. Kirby has gotten them much closer in only 4 years.
There is NO WAY IN HELL that they are calling for Kirby to be fired. He is literally the best thing that ever happened to that school second only to Hershel Walker. Who else has actually gotten them into a national title game? They may be Georgia fans. They may not be able to get into real colleges. But they aren’t stupid.
I can answer that! Auburn! Auburn is who UGA should thank for being in a national championship game and having anSEC title under bangs. Bama had to replace their yearly victory of UGA with the title game instead of the SEC game because they had a rare slip up against Auburn.
‘Bama wouldn’t have beaten UGA in the SEC title game because of all the injuries on defense. All of those guys got healthy for the playoffs and the 2017 ‘Bama D under Pruitt was night and day different from the regular season.
Neil, I’m not sure top 10 rankings are the correct currency for a discussion about the balance of power in the SEC East, especially at the midpoint in the season.
I prefer Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio. And Mullen is currently 1-0 against Smart and Georgia when he has a BCR of 50% plus. While I know this is a bit simplistic, once a team has elite talent (including 3-star guys who play at an elite level like Heggie, Stewart Reese, Toney and Trask) across its two deep, the fact that an opponent has elite talent stacked up on its sideline matters a lot less.
In numeric terms, once you have at least 43 or more elite guys and guys who play at an elite level, the fact that an opponent has maybe 70 such guys doesn’t matter as much.
Of course, having a great quarterback and coaching staff doesn’t hurt either. And of course, the Gators need to finish strong. But with Campbell back, the Gators do now look like they can hang with Alabama.
Who says Georgia is more talented and talent alone and that difference alone does not guarantee anything. Georgia has been lit up by the two good teams they have played. there are real problems in that staff and lockerroom. Mullin recruits well enough and coaches hard enough to win a national championship. Style points matter not.
The job Mullen has done at Florida is terrific. This win gives him a signature win and probably, a boost on the recruiting trail comparing the programs. But Florida has frightening games ahead- starting next week– and this program hasn’t been in the catbird seat in a long time. Let’s see what happens.
Before getting ahead of yourselves remember you played a banged up Georgia team missing 7 key players on defense alone and allowed a sub par offense to score 28 on you. Enjoy this year.
Oh, no, recruiting rankings again? You mean like Florida’s defense having a higher 247 ranking than Florida’s offense? You mean like Kyle Trask being ranked as a 2-Star? You mean like LSU being ranked 6th? LMAO.
How does only one UF fan here even know Trask’s actual recruiting ranking. He was a 3*. You guys love downgrading him for some reason.
To be fair, he was a two-star recruit (As SDS also reported 21 hours ago) but I think he earned the third star after he committed to UF. So technically a three-star but recruited as a two-star.
All you Gator Dawg haters jump on here and start talking $hit after your first win in four years. Florida will regress next year as Trask will be gone along with Pitts. Mullet is a mediocre recruiter (because he’s a weird, strange dude) and a mediocre head coach. He is good offensive coordinator but he doesn’t have the “it” factor as a head coach. Not saying he couldn’t get lucky one year and win a Natty but he won’t make the Gators a consistent playoff team. Enjoy your victory as it will be another 4 years before the next.
Chill man, its a rivalry that Georgia has owned the last three years and based on your QB room it looks like the Gators will have the next two. I say that half kidding of course. We heard we would regress this year too bc our WRs left for the NFL but here we are. You talk about this “it” factor as if Kirby literally can’t win big games. Being a good offensive coordinator wins games. Or maybe Georgia was just trash and you got beat by a mediocre HC. You choose. In the meantime, take the L. Georgia will be back and Florida will be ready. The SEC East is more fun when FL GA run it.