Friday Forecast: Saturday Football staff picks for Week 7 CFB slate
The Saturday Football crew is back for another week to provide picks against the spread for 10 of the biggest games in college football.
Here’s how things stand after six weeks:
- Spenser Davis: 32-26-2
- Ethan Stone: 30-28-2
- Paul Harvey: 29–29-2
- Derek Peterson: 28–30-2
Let’s dive in.
No. 3 Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue
Spenser Davis: I bet against Ohio State in a similar spot last week, and the Buckeyes managed a push in the final minutes of the game. This week I’m going with the Buckeyes — I think this is a pretty big mismatch in favor of Ohio State. The Penn State game looming in Week 8 does make me a little nervous about this being a look-ahead spot, but I have to go with OSU here. PICK: Ohio State
Paul Harvey: A lot has been made about Purdue’s 2018 win over Ohio State, and the “Spoilermakers” have shocked the world before. However, Jeff Brohm isn’t around anymore, and Purdue has been too inconsistent on either side of the ball. It might not come til the fourth quarter, but OSU covers here. PICK: Ohio State
Derek Peterson: I think Lou Holtz—err Ryan Day is going to have his guys consistently ready to go down the stretch of this season given the way they’ve been doubted to this point. Ohio State is getting better. PICK: Ohio State
Ethan Stone: Jeff Brohm ain’t coming through that door, Boilermakers. I’d say taking Purdue here would be a trendy pick, but I’m not sure I buy it. PICK: Ohio State
Syracuse at No. 4 Florida State (-17.5)
SD: I think Syracuse is cooked. Florida State has been looking for a big blowout win. It didn’t get one last week vs. Virginia Tech (although 22 points isn’t bad) but I think the Noles will be able to separate in a big way here. PICK: Florida State
PH: Despite being 5-0, the Seminoles have not looked particularly great in the past 3 wins (excluding the thriller over Clemson). This looks like a “get right” game for Mike Norvell’s squad and a great time to tune up before facing Duke. PICK: Florida State
DP: Syracuse has lost its last two games by a combined 50 points. The gut feeling here is that some pride kicks in and the Orange make it a bit tougher on Florida State than they did Clemson or North Carolina. PICK: Syracuse
ES: For reasons my colleagues have said, I’m picking Florida State. Not sure this one will ever be close. PICK: Florida State
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No. 8 Oregon at No. 7 Washington (-3)
SD: Oregon has an elite offense and an elite defense. Washington has an elite offense and very mediocre defense. Neither of these teams have played anyone of substance yet. I’ll take the points. PICK: Oregon
PH: Two ultra-efficient QBs square off in this one. Home field is a big key for the Huskies, but Oregon has a legitimately scary ground game and a defense that travels. Ducks by a feather. PICK: Oregon
DP: I think this is the game of the year in college football and an early preview of the Pac-12 title game. At this point, I trust Oregon’s defense more to get a stop when the takeaway opportunities aren’t abundant. Between them, Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix have three interceptions in 341 pass attempts this season. Neither offensive line gives up sacks. These units don’t go backwards and they don’t turn the football over. I’ll take the Ducks to make a late stand and win a thriller. PICK: Oregon
ES: This will be such a fun football game, y’all. Two of the better quarterbacks in the game, an electric atmosphere, the works. The Ducks semi-struggled earlier in the season on the road in Lubbock, and I love picking home favorites. I’ll disagree with my co-workers and roll with Washington here. PICK: Washington
Texas A&M at No. 19 Tennessee (-3)
SD: Texas A&M has not played well on the road this year, so it’s hard to back the Aggies as a short dog going into Knoxville. However, I think Texas A&M’s pass rush can make things uncomfortable for Joe Milton and I don’t trust the Vols’ passing game if they get off schedule consistently. I’ll take the points. PICK: Texas A&M
PH: I understand Texas A&M has played well in some tough games, but I also don’t see a win of major quality so far for the Aggies. That could change this weekend, but the line is too low for me not to pick the Vols at home. PICK: Tennessee
DP: Sacks are the defining number in this game. Texas A&M leads the country in that category currently, with 26 takedowns in six games. Tennessee has 22 in five. Max Johnson was brought down five times by Alabama a week ago — one fewer than the number of sacks Tennessee has allowed all year. At home, I like Tennessee to make enough plays, keep Neyland rocking and walk out with a win, but I think Texas A&M can turn this into a bit of an offensive slopfest and keep it close. PICK: Texas A&M
ES: Neyland is the deciding factor here. The Aggies have not performed well on the road while Tennessee has looked like its usual self in Knoxville (so far). I’m not too high on Tennessee this season but give me Milton to manage the game well enough against the Aggies’ defensive front to snag a win by a touchdown. PICK: Tennessee
Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5)
SD: It’s true that Wisconsin’s offense has fallen far below expectations this season. But still, the Badgers’ offense is significantly more efficient than what Iowa is putting out on the other side. Wisconsin’s defense has been solid and I expect it will have a banner day vs. the Hawkeyes. PICK: Wisconsin
PH: The home team has won 4 straight in this series, and the last 3 have been decided by double digits. Don’t fight the trend. PICK: Wisconsin
DP: I need to yell at the person who keeps putting Iowa games on the docket for us to pick. (It’s me. I’m the person doing it.) Wisconsin runs it significantly better than Iowa, and Wisconsin stops the run better than Iowa. But this just has the feel of a margins game. PICK: Iowa
ES: This is one of those lines where I feel like I’m missing something. I’ve kept a list and I’m 0-2 in those games thus far. It’s ridiculous logic, but we’re talking about 2 ridiculous football teams here. Give me the Hawkeyes to cover. PICK: Iowa
No. 10 USC at No. 21 Notre Dame (-2.5)
SD: The matchup between USC’s defense and Notre Dame’s offense will determine the outcome here. Both units are in desperate need of a get-right game. I’ll side with the Fighting Irish here because we’ve seen them be dominant against lackluster defenses while we’ve rarely seen any signs of life from USC’s defense in 2023. PICK: Notre Dame
PH: I’m worried about Notre Dame. Playing in Week 0, the hard loss to OSU, the gutsy win against Duke and then getting ambushed by Louisville a week ago. I understand USC’s defense is… well, USC’s defense, but the Irish strike me as a team out of steam. PICK: USC
DP: This will really hinge on the first three drives of the game. Notre Dame needs a perfect start, I think. Set the stage for a low-possession game where Audric Estimé can feature and Notre Dame can run it down USC’s throat a bit — which it should be able to do. I don’t believe Notre Dame will have the energy to play Caleb Williams straight up. I think we’re about to see an angry USC team. PICK: USC
ES: I’ll take the points here for the same reason Paul said: Notre Dame feels just drained. USC is still fighting for something, and despite this being in South Bend I’m not sure the Irish will have enough fight. Plus, one team has Caleb Williams and the other doesn’t. Regardless of a woeful defense, gimme the Trojans. PICK: USC
No. 25 Miami at No. 12 North Carolina (-3.5)
SD: I’m not sure if the market has caught up to how good North Carolina is this season. The Tar Heels aren’t serious contenders for the College Football Playoff (the defense is still prone to giving up big plays) but they aren’t that far off, either. Will Miami be able to mentally rebound from a hellacious loss last week to Georgia Tech? I think there’s quite a bit of blowout potential here. PICK: North Carolina
PH: Miami gave up 33 points to the best team it has played this season (Texas A&M) and lost to Georgia Tech a week ago. Bottom line: I’m not picking against Drake Maye at home with a line this low. PICK: North Carolina
DP: I legitimately don’t know how a coach can keep the locker room after doing what Mario Cristobal did last week. I think doubt creeps in when you do everything to win the game and then your coach loses it for you in that manner. Now you have to pack up and go play a red-hot Carolina team on the road? No, thank you. PICK: North Carolina
ES: No more Mario Cristobal. North Carolina is wildly underappreciated this season in my eyes, and I don’t see the momentum slowing here. PICK: North Carolina
Missouri at No. 24 Kentucky (-2.5)
SD: Missouri has a couple pretty sizable advantages here. Mizzou’s passing game has been markedly more efficient than UK’s pass defense has been. On the other side, the Tigers’ run defense has been stout while the Wildcats’ run game has been pretty mediocre so far in 2023. I’ll take the points here. PICK: Missouri
PH: A forecast for rain throughout the day in Lexington and potentially gusty winds has me concerned for Brady Cook and the Tiger offense in this one. That could be overthinking this one, but I’ll take Kentucky if things get ugly. PICK: Kentucky
DP: Give me the Tigers. PICK: Missouri
ES: I know the Wildcats just played No. 1, which finally looked like No. 1 for the first time all season. But I just don’t think the Wildcats are very good, y’all. Missouri has done most of its damage at home this season, but I’ll take the points in a close one. PICK: Missouri
No. 18 UCLA at No. 15 Oregon State (-3.5)
SD: Both of these defenses are really good, but I do trust Oregon State’s offense quite a bit more than UCLA’s. It helps that the Beavers will be playing at home, too. PICK: Oregon State
PH: I think these two teams are pretty even all things considered. Being at home, I’ll go with the Beavers and a defense that probably bites Dante Moore a time or two. PICK: Oregon State
DP: UCLA completely manhandled the team Oregon State trailed 35-14 going into the fourth a few weeks ago. I get the home-versus-road distinction there, but I don’t think UCLA’s defense is being truly appreciated yet for how excellent it is. I think they make a few plays on DJ Uiagalelei in a game that gets settled on a few plays. PICK: UCLA
ES: UCLA’s inconsistency offensively is a little concerning. But they’re playing better football after downing Washington State last week. I’ll take the points. PICK: UCLA
NC State at No. 17 Duke (-3)
SD: There’s a lot of quarterback uncertainty in this one. Riley Leonard is questionable, although it seems doubtful he will play after suffering a pretty severe ankle sprain vs. Notre Dame in Week 5. MJ Morris will be making his second start of the season in relief of Brennan Armstrong — he threw for 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in a win over Marshall last week. I think NC State’s defense is quite good and I worry about the Blue Devils’ ability to move the ball if Leonard isn’t playing. PICK: NC State
PH: I’m not sure how Duke bounces back from the demoralizing loss to Notre Dame, especially considering Riley Leonard’s status. But in this specific matchup, I trust Mike Elko at home with Dave Doeren on the other side. PICK: Duke
DP: The quarterback is everything in this offense. If Riley Leonard plays, Duke wins by more than a touchdown. If Leonard sits, I can see NC State covering this number. Since I’m leaning toward Leonard sitting, I’ll take the Wolfpack. PICK: NC State
ES: Riley Leonard’s status makes this one tough. But that doesn’t mean I’m ready to trust NC State on the road here. Leonard is Duke’s identity, but the Blue Devils are more talented and they get NC State at home. PICK: Duke
