SEC
When the Week 9 SEC points spreads were released, one line surprised many — Missouri was favored by a touchdown against the best Kentucky team of the Mark Stoops era.
That line has many wondering what is going on but does make some sense considering the Wildcats have been struggling lately on offense and look to be feeling the weight of expectations that come with a 5-0 start to the season. When you factor in Missouri’s recent impressive showing against Memphis and the fact that this one is in Columbia, the line does make more sense.
If you want an even deeper dive into that line, ESPN College GameDay researcher Chris Fallica took an incredible deep dive on this game and found a truly impressive stat that suggest Missouri will not only win against Kentucky but cover the spread.
Here’s what Fallica, aka ‘The Bear,’ found when asked about this game by Kirk Herbstreit on his latest ESPN Herbstreit & Fitzsimmons college football podcast.
“They (Missouri) are home, their ability to score, that win at Purdue looks a lot better now and I think Kentucky’s inability to throw the ball is a concern,” Fallica said on the podcast. “This is something I talked about with Stanford Steve when we did our pod, I went back and looked, this is one of those lines — the ole Lee Corso ‘somebody knows something games’ — I went back to the last 40 years, there have been eight instances of a team that was unranked and was at least a seven-point favorite over a team in the top 12.”
So according to the ESPN researcher, a game like the upcoming contest between Kentucky and Missouri has only occurred eight times in the previous 40 years. The Bear went on to discuss what happened in those eight games over the years.
“Those eight teams all won the game, seven of them covered,” Fallica shared. “Somebody knows something is undefeated and somebody is trying to tell you, that Missouri is the right side in this game.”
If history holds true on Saturday, Missouri will not only win against Kentucky, they will likely cover the touchdown spread, too.
The perfect storm of a high point MU offense vs a team with one speed. Right or wrong that is an interesting stat to pull up.
Somehow a UK team that has beaten MU three years in a roll, a team that is obviously better than the previous three teams that have won, a team whose defense is one of the best in the conference, a team going against a quarterback who has struggled against SEC teams (48% passing, 1TD, 5INTs,3 yds rushing, 85.39 passing rating compared to Terry Wilsons 61%, 4TD’s, 3INTs, 277 yds rushing and 121 passing rating), is a TD underdog to a team without a conference win. I don’t get it. Not saying MU can’t win as any team can win when it’s their day, but UK shouldn’t be a TD dog. Go CATS!!!
This line is EASY money! Take the points..hell, take Kentucky on the ML. Kentucky has lacked in the passing game, but Mizzou’s DB’s are the worst I’ve ever seen. Kentucky will look like they have a passing game and then Benny Snell will run all over them. I expect 2+ turnovers from Lock too. Kentucky wins 35-21.
Georgia had more points given to them by the refs against Missouri than Kentucky might score in the this game. Your talk tries to run and hide from that. Hell, Georgia could lose to Florida and Missouri could beat Kentucky and Florida, for all you know.
Who wants it the most, that team wins Saturday. Kentucky could hold Missouri to a low score, or like the Memphis game, Missouri could run all over AND pass al over Kentucky. All predictions are off on this game. Both coaching staffs are smart enough to lay out the road map to a win.