When the Week 9 SEC points spreads were released, one line surprised many — Missouri was favored by a touchdown against the best Kentucky team of the Mark Stoops era.

That line has many wondering what is going on but does make some sense considering the Wildcats have been struggling lately on offense and look to be feeling the weight of expectations that come with a 5-0 start to the season. When you factor in Missouri’s recent impressive showing against Memphis and the fact that this one is in Columbia, the line does make more sense.

If you want an even deeper dive into that line, ESPN College GameDay researcher Chris Fallica took an incredible deep dive on this game and found a truly impressive stat that suggest Missouri will not only win against Kentucky but cover the spread.

Here’s what Fallica, aka ‘The Bear,’ found when asked about this game by Kirk Herbstreit on his latest ESPN Herbstreit & Fitzsimmons college football podcast.

“They (Missouri) are home, their ability to score, that win at Purdue looks a lot better now and I think Kentucky’s inability to throw the ball is a concern,” Fallica said on the podcast. “This is something I talked about with Stanford Steve when we did our pod, I went back and looked, this is one of those lines — the ole Lee Corso ‘somebody knows something games’ — I went back to the last 40 years, there have been eight instances of a team that was unranked and was at least a seven-point favorite over a team in the top 12.”

So according to the ESPN researcher, a game like the upcoming contest between Kentucky and Missouri has only occurred eight times in the previous 40 years. The Bear went on to discuss what happened in those eight games over the years.

“Those eight teams all won the game, seven of them covered,” Fallica shared. “Somebody knows something is undefeated and somebody is trying to tell you, that Missouri is the right side in this game.”

If history holds true on Saturday, Missouri will not only win against Kentucky, they will likely cover the touchdown spread, too.