Gators face challenges during 3-game gauntlet beginning at Missouri
The Jim McElwain era at Florida is off to a rousing start. While season-opening victories over New Mexico State and East Carolina were expected, a hard-fought victory over Kentucky and a narrow win at Tennessee followed by a stunning thrashing of Ole Miss served notice that the Gators are a force to reckon with in the SEC East race.
Actually, thanks to their 3-0 start in conference play, including the two division victories, the Gators are in the driver’s seat in the East. Sophomore QB Will Grier has directed an improved offense and a touted defense has met expectations.
But it’s way too early for the Gators to start thinking about Atlanta. Beginning Saturday at Missouri, the Gators face a three-game gauntlet continuing with LSU and Georgia that should determine how close they are to returning to the glory days under Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer.
The Gators have several questions to answer:
- Can Grier throw effectively downfield — something he hasn’t had to do much of so far?
- How will the Gators quarterback handle big-game pressure at Death Valley and at EverBank Field?
- Can the ground game, which has averaged a modest 3.9 yards per carry, be effective in this crucial three-game stretch?
But first, let’s look at the Florida schedule, which is favorable overall when compared to division rivals.
Mizzou (4-1, 1-1 SEC) has shown an ability to win close games in the last three seasons. The Tigers offense has been woeful, but is unlikely to give the game away. Mizzou has committed just six turnovers, and there’s reason to expect fewer mistakes with freshman Drew Lock at quarterback, replacing erratic Maty Mauk (four interceptions). Plus, Grier will face pressure from an attacking pass rush that’s produced 12 sacks.
At LSU (5-0), Grier will face a punishing Tigers defense with 11 sacks in four games in front of an intimidating crowd under the lights at Death Valley. Though second in the conference in rushing defense, allowing only 98 yards per game, Florida hasn’t faced any ball carrier like Leonard Fournette.
After a week to rest up, the Gators face Nick Chubb and Georgia (4-1) in a likely battle for the division title. It remains to be seen how the Bulldogs bounce back from their humbling loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs should be ready to play considering a loss to a crumbling Gators team last season cost them a division title.
Grier’s glittering 67.2 percent completion percentage is at least partly due to making primarily short throws to Demarcus Robinson, who has averaged only 9.0 yards on 28 receptions, and tight end Jake McGee, who has 16 catches.
Over the next three games, finding big-play threats Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway downfield may be necessary. Grier will need time to find them from an offensive line with three sophomore starters and an all-freshman second unit. The line has given up 10 sacks. Running the ball could be difficult as well. Running back Kelvin Taylor, who has 339 yards and a 3.9-yard average, is solid, but doesn’t have breakaway speed.
Big plays from defensive stars Vernon Hargreaves III, who has three interceptions, and lineman Jonathan Bullard may be needed to give the Gators positive field position.
Stopping the ground game is the key to stopping Mizzou, LSU and Georgia, and that bodes well for the Gators, who are second-best in the SEC, allowing only 98 yards per game.
The kicking game is likely to be important in expected defensive struggles the next two weeks. Jorge Powell, who took over for struggling Austin Hardin, made two short field-goal attempts without a miss last week against Ole Miss.
Much of the Gators’ fate would seem to rest with the offense’s continued development. If Grier can make plays and get the ball to Powell and Callaway without making costly turnovers, the Gators could be in full control of the East before November. Grier showed an ability to handle pressure on the road at Tennessee, but the stakes will be higher in his next two road trips.
After the approaching, three-game stretch, the Gators should tear through Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Florida Atlantic before their showdown with Florida State, which could have a BCS bowl berth — or more — at stake.