Greg McElroy believes a number of SEC teams will have a realistic shot at the College Football Playoff this season. However, he also knows it’s unwise to project a large number of SEC teams to land in the final field of 12.

In his latest episode of the “Always College Football” podcast, McElroy admitted he has “a hard time” seeing 5 SEC teams land in the Playoff in 2024. That’s related to how the 12 teams will be broken down in terms of automatic qualifiers and rival conferences.

Overall, McElroy believes it’s best to expect 3-4 teams from the Big Ten and the SEC to make the final field:

“I have a hard time envisioning 5… You look at the Big Ten, they’re going to get 3 in, more than likely,” said McElroy. “…You’ve got to think 3, maybe 4 from the Big Ten… You look at the SEC, I think 3 or 4 probably is most likely.”

McElroy also projected the SEC teams he has with an actual shot to reach the CFP, including a percentage chance that each team makes the final cut. Here are the SEC teams and McElroy’s percentage shot for each to reach the Playoff:

Georgia — 90%

“I’d probably have them No. 1… With what they return, they’re in a great spot. You can’t go 29-1 in your last 30 games and not be at or near the top of the rankings. You also bring back your starting QB.”

Texas — 70%

“They’re humming right now. They do have to replace some really key pieces… The good news is they went to the portal and made some really good additions.”

Alabama — 70%

“I think Alabama will be huge players in May when the portal opens up… I think Alabama’s in a great spot. I know a lot of people are going to latch onto the perceived negativity… They still have Jalen Milroe, they still have good, quality young receivers.”

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Ole Miss — 60%

“They have had a terrific offseason… Yes, they lost Quinshon Judkins, who is arguably the best running back in the country… but they do have adequate pieces behind them… They have really done a great job of upgrading their talent and depth on the defensive side of the ball.”

LSU — 55%

“They had a Heisman Trophy QB that they’ll have to replace in Jayden Daniels and the defense that allowed a bunch of points in their losses. The defense is going to have to get figured out, but the good news is they already have an adequate replacement in Garrett Nussmeier to replace Jayden Daniels.”

Mizzou — 50%

“They bring back some of their most impactful players in Brady Cook, they bring back Luther Burden at WR. They have a legitimate chance to be a College Football Playoff contender this season.”

Tennessee — 15%

“We got to take a peek at what they might look like in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl. They routed Iowa… We got a good long look at Nico Iamaleava… They do have to figure out (the secondary) but everything else looks pretty dang good for the Volunteers.”

Oklahoma — 10%

“If they get to 9-3, I really like their chances (get to the Playoff), but I don’t think they can get there.”

Here is McElroy’s full breakdown: