Like it or not, it’s staring us in the face: if heavy underdog Auburn beats Alabama, the Auburn administration is suddenly in a difficult spot.

And by administration, I mean Auburn’s deep-pocket boosters.

Hire an experienced coach with a strong track record, or ride the momentum and feel-good performance of interim coach Cadillac Williams all the way to a permanent contract?

What seemed laughable when Williams was first hired after Bryan Harsin was fired 21 games into his tenure has looked more plausible over the past 2 weeks.

Back-to-back home wins over Texas A&M and WKU — the former reenergizing a defeated fan base, the latter showing what a complete performance looks like — has put Williams in position to earn the job based on performance.

Imagine this: With Lane Kiffin potentially in position (it’s nearly an hourly decision), and with other potential candidates at the ready (Deion Sanders, Matt Rhule, etc.), Auburn could move forward with a former player whose coaching experience includes:

  • 1 season as running backs coach at Division II Henderson State
  • 1 season as a graduate assistant coach at Division II West Georgia
  • 1 season as running backs coach at IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla.
  • 1 season as running backs coach of the Birmingham Ironi of the AAFL
  • 4 seasons as running backs coach at Auburn.

Would anything be more Auburn than that?

But Williams has developed into a strong recruiter under former coach Gus Malzahn (who hired him) and Harsin, and could get players of significance to Auburn with the program’s loaded NIL base. But what happens once they’re on campus?

The development and discipline and direction then become the focal point — much less what plays out on game day in the strongest conference in college football.

It would be a significant gamble by Auburn — it worked similarly with Dabo Swinney at Clemson — and one that may be too difficult to avoid. If the Tigers beat Alabama, there will be a huge momentum swing from fans to hire Williams.

And more important, maybe even from deep-pocket boosters.

The Playoff Path

We’re 9 days from the Playoff selection committee choosing 4 teams, and the field has been winnowed to 7 legitimate candidates (and 1 outlier):

Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, LSU, USC, Clemson and heaven help us all, Alabama (I say that with all the love in my heart, Tide fans).

Here’s the first move: Saturday’s games could lock up 2 of the 4 spots.

If No. 1 Georgia beats suddenly excited rival Georgia Tech (which beat then-top 10 UNC last week), the Bulldogs are in the Playoff no matter what happens in the SEC Championship Game against LSU.

If No. 2 Ohio State beats No. 3 Michigan, the Buckeyes are in the Playoff no matter what happens in the Big Ten Championship game (against likely Top-25 Iowa, which wins the West if it beats Nebraska on Friday afternoon).

That leaves 6 teams for 2 spots, and things become very simple in a 3rd scenario if chalk plays out. If No. 4 TCU beats Iowa State on Saturday, then beats No. 12 Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Horned Frogs are in.

That leaves 1 spot for 1 team.

The easy answer looks like No. 6 USC, with a win over No. 15 Notre Dame  on Saturday, and a win over No. 9 Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

That would give USC a conference championship, and a 1-point road loss to top-20 Utah. Wins over UCLA, Notre Dame and Oregon is a much better résumé than 1-loss ACC Champion Clemson or the OSU-Michigan loser, which would have 1 loss and no division title.

The big question: How much weight would the Playoff committee give to an LSU upset of Georgia? And how much negative would be tied to 2 losses to ranked teams (FSU, Tennessee) — ahead of wins over 3 ranked teams (Ole Miss, Alabama, Georgia)?

An LSU win, more than likely, would need to be convincing — not a last-second thriller (as good as that would be) — to push the committee to selecting a 2-loss Power 5 champion over a 1-loss P5 champion.

But the committee was designed with this in mind. If a team gets hot and is playing as well or better than any other in the nation, that can be a significant metric in the decision — especially if they’ve won the best conference in college football.

As for our dear friends from Alabama, check back late Saturday night. If you’re still in it, the season has officially hit crazy.

First-year blues

In a matter of months, things have gone from hopeful to hesitant to downright panic in Gainesville over new coach Billy Napier.

Is it fair? Of course not. Because Napier hasn’t turned it as quickly as Brian Kelly at LSU (a build-out Napier will be linked to for years), it doesn’t mean he won’t be successful at Florida.

There is one thing that can stop the bleeding: a win Saturday at bitter rival Florida State.

Because with a loss to FSU, Florida will have lost to all 4 of its biggest rivals (Georgia, FSU, Tennessee, LSU), Kentucky (for the 3rd time in 5 seasons) and, unthinkably, the SEC tomato can (Vanderbilt).

That’s a gut punch of a Year 1 résumé for Napier, who was dealt a difficult hand (so was Kelly) and has had to make chicken salad out of chicken spit (so has Kelly).

Remember, this is the same fan base that bailed on former coach Dan Mullen after 3 straight New year’s 6 bowls and a regression in Year 4. If the Gators lose big in Tallahassee to surging FSU, then what?

Then Napier’s inaugural season is 6 wins, and the margin for error is eliminated in Season 2. Wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt — the favored Gators were poorly prepared in both losses — would’ve given Napier 8 wins in Year 1 and more room to stretch and grow.

The Game

The most significant fallout from Michigan finally breaking through last season against Ohio State went beyond the playing field.

Michigan eventually won the Big Ten and advanced to the Playoff, but an underlying narrative was set by none other than Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh: It’s easy to walk in cold and bake the cake when you’re not missing ingredients.

Harbaugh’s official statement after beating Ohio State last season was, “Some people are born on third base and act like they hit a triple.”

In other words, Ohio State coach Ryan Day inherited a ready-made championship program from Urban Meyer — right down to the changing of the whistle ceremony after a Rose Bowl win over Washington in 2018 — while Harbaugh had to grind with a program left in the ditch from repeated bad hires (Rich Rodriguez, Brady Hoke).

While that’s hyperbole — a ready-made program, maybe, lasts 1 season — it’s now the undercard to a bitter rivalry. And while Day has dominated at Ohio State (45-4 record, 31-1 in the Big Ten), the Buckeyes haven’t won a national title — the annual goal of all things Scarlet and Gray.

Day is 2-1 vs. Michigan, 2-0 in the Big Ten Championship Game and 1-2 in the Playoff. He has the most talented offense in the nation, and a defense that has been much-improved under first-year DC Jim Knowles.

He has Michigan at home, and can lock up a spot in the Playoff with a win. It’s all in front of Ohio State to find a way to the national championship game (likely against Georgia) and take the final step under Day.

Unless, of course, Ohio State loses to Michigan.

Then Day and the Buckeyes are stuck again on third base.