Hayes: NFL scouts answer key questions about College Football Playoff semifinals
By Matt Hayes
Published:
You have questions, we have answers. The Playoff semifinals kick off Saturday, and 2 NFL scouts analyze the 4 big questions in each game.
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State
1. CJ Stroud or Stetson Bennett, who has the advantage?
AFC scout: “Really, you’re going to hit me with that one right out of the gate? Stroud has the better receivers. Stroud is the better thrower. He’s an accurate thrower and he’s a perfect fit for the Ohio State system. He can execute anything (Ohio State coach) Ryan Day wants, and do it well. And then there’s Bennett. He’s so much better than people think. He doesn’t have the arm strength of Stroud or the accuracy, but he’s perfect for what they want to do. That team loves him, and plays for him. That’s so underrated. I will say this: (Bennett) is different under pressure. He can make some poor throws and decisions under pressure.”
NFC scout: “The better player is Stroud, and I don’t think that’s any revelation. When he’s hot, it’s a joy to watch that offense. So precise, so effective, so dangerous. You put Stroud on that Georgia offense, and no one comes within 5 touchdowns of them every week. But I really like Bennett. He won’t have the NFL career of Stroud, but who cares? In the right situation, he’s successful. You could put him on Michigan, and they’d be right where they are now. Georgia runs the ball, and they throw over the top for explosion plays. And Bennett is an accurate thrower on the deep ball. What more could you want? He stays out of trouble, he makes plays when asked.”
2. What is Georgia’s biggest flaw?
AFC scout: “Ball security. I’ve seen too many games this year where they’ve turned over the ball — usually a fumble by 1 of those 3 running backs — and suddenly, the game gets tight. They’ve been able to work their way out of those situations because they weren’t playing teams that can take advantage and score quick. Tennessee could, but not on that soaked field. Ohio State can quick score you. They get up 7-0 before you figure it out defensively, and then you get a fumble and quick score, and now you’re down 14-0 in a big game against a team that can score points and suddenly has momentum and feels good about itself.”
NFC scout: “They’re not as good in the back end in coverage as they’ve been the last couple of seasons. I really like (Kelee) Ringo, and he’ll be a Day 1 pick and a good pro, but he hasn’t played as well as he did last year. Some of that has to do with a decrease in pressure and the ability to affect the quarterback like they did last season. They have some young guys in the back end that are hit and miss like (Javon) Bullard and (Kamari) Lassiter, and you can’t be hit and miss against this Ohio State passing game. The safeties, (Christopher) Smith and (Malaki) Starks, have played well and kind of held it together back there.”
3. Which Ohio State defense shows up? The top-20 defense from the first 11 games or the unit that collapsed against Michigan?
AFC scout: “Yeah, this is the game, really. Defense, and we say this all the time, is as much about want as it is physical ability. I didn’t see the want in Ohio State against Michigan. I almost think you line up in base, and say find the ball. How badly do you want it? They tried way too much exotic stuff against Michigan — run and pass pressures — that they really didn’t need. They’re coming at you to run the ball, and throw off play-action. It’s the same thing Georgia will do. Stop the run, then play coverage on 3rd-and-long.”
NFC scout: “Before that Michigan game, who on their schedule stressed them? Penn State? Maryland? I think everyone was too focused on all the great numbers they had, the new defensive coordinator and what he brought — and (Ohio State DC) Jim (Knowles) is a terrific coach — and not realizing they’re the same defense they were in last year’s Rose Bowl. What personnel this season, other than (JT) Tuimoloau, is different from what we saw last year? This is still a team that relies on its offense, and for the defense to get enough stops. Can they play with more passion and play their best game of the season with this second chance and everyone doubting them? Absolutely.”
4. How does Ohio State deal with Georgia DT Jalen Carter and the rest of an active defensive line?
AFC: “You have to choose what’s more vital to what you want to do. You can double Carter and run at him, which is probably the plan with the most potential for success. But that front is so much more than Carter, who is clearly the best player on the defense — and will be the best player on the field in that game. They can come at you with so many different looks, but here’s what gets overlooked: For the most part, Georgia wants to play 2 safeties high and get after the quarterback with 4 or 5. The advantage is they have better players than you, and they can play that. That’s it, at the end of the day, their guys are better than yours. They get pressure with 4 or 5, and there’s nowhere to go for a passing game. (Nazir) Stackhouse is a grown man, and (Smael) Mondon and (Robert) Beal, and I love the kid in the middle, (Jamon) Dumas-Johnson. They come at you in waves.”
NFC scout: “LSU had success in the (SEC) championship game because they went quick, and because they protected better than they have all season. They doubled Carter, and they helped on the edge. Georgia had to bring more than 4, and that opened up the back end. Protection is everything for Ohio State. You can try some quick stuff to the outside to get the ball out, but you’re going to have to run the ball to get those intermediate and deep throws that make Stroud and that offense so dangerous. That’s the best way to slow the rush — run the ball. If Ohio State can run enough to keep Georgia guessing, (Marvin) Harrison (Jr.) and (Emeka) Egbuka and (Julian) Fleming will be a big problem for the Georgia secondary. Those are elite wide receivers who will win on the outside if given time.”
Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 TCU
1. Can TCU withstand the physical Michigan lines of scrimmage?
AFC scout: “(TCU) is very athletic on the lines of scrimmage, guys that are physically in top shape. Defensively, the front 7 can run and they have some disrupters. (Dee) Winters and (Dylan) Horton, the linebackers, have been tough for anyone to block. It’s not that they haven’t face anything like Michigan — and they haven’t — it’s that Michigan isn’t just a big offensive line, they’re big and athletic. Those dudes can move and reach and scrape. Defensively, they’re going to be a problem because they’re very disciplined in their rush. You’re not going to see big QB scramble plays.”
NFC scout: “This is the key to the game. Period. If Michigan can lean on TCU and impose their will, TCU is in trouble. I suspect TCU will overload and bring run pressure until (Michigan QB JJ) McCarthy hits a big throw downfield. Once that happens a couple of times, you have to play straight up or you’re going to die on the vine trying to cover in man against a hot quarterback who can also go off schedule and get chunk scramble plays. They have to run the ball, they have to get a push up front in the middle 3. They’re at their best when (RB) Kendre Miller is involved. ”
2. Can TCU QB Max Duggan have success against the Michigan secondary?
AFC scout: “This isn’t just about the secondary. TCU has to protect. That’s what everyone overlooked from the Ohio State game. Michigan got CJ Stroud off his mark, they forced hurried and poor throws. It’s a lot easier to cover when you’re facing quick throws. Duggan is accurate, and can stand in there and take a hit or escape and extend plays with his legs. He’s a big dude, and difficult to bring down.”
NFC scout: “Michigan has been good all season in the back end. (CB) DJ Turner is a terrific talent, he could move into a Day 1 pick over the next 4 months. The young kid, the freshman Will Johnson, could be a special player but is very risk/reward right now. TCU will do a lot of quick stuff to slow down the pass rush, and get the ball in space on the perimeter. That’s how they score and stay close. An overload of the quick stuff, and then Duggan makes accurate throws over the top when the corners begin to get aggressive. It’s what they’ve done all season. I really like Duggan. Tough kid, a gamer — and those intangibles overshadow the fact that he’s a really good thrower.”
3. Can the TCU defense slow the Michigan run game of TB Donovan Edwards and QB JJ McCarthy?
AFC scout: “This is where the game is won and lost. I’m glad you said “defense” because it’s going to take all hands on deck to stop this run game. You have 2 guys that can wreck game plans with unique talent. Edwards will be the fastest player on the field, and he’s all of 205 pounds. You get a couple of those 2nd level blocks that Michigan is so good at, and you may as well strike up Hail to the Victors. TCU is going to have to creep from the secondary. You’re going to see safeties hot on the edge trying to push plays back inside. If they play base, they’ll get gutted.”
NFC scout: “Michigan is a different team running the ball with Edwards. With (Blake) Corum, they’re pounding you inside. With Edwards, it’s get him to the perimeter. There’s a lot of zone (blocking) stuff that allows the play to stretch and for him to find a crease and go. McCarthy is the guy who can hurt you on those scrambles. He’s a lot tougher than he looks. To beat Michigan, you need to be disruptive on the interior, and affect plays before they can develop. There was a number one of our guys had from the Big Ten Championship Game that was striking: Edwards had 185 yards rushing, and 144 were after contact.”
4. Can JJ McCarthy rise to the moment?
AFC scout: “He has done just about everything you could ask him this season. He’s given them a guy that can make every throw, and a threat in the run game. He played really well against Ohio State and Purdue, in 2 big games that meant everything. But he’s still a guy that makes some ill-advised throws. There are at least a couple of times during a game when he’s trying make something happen, and he gets away with a really bad decision. If you’re TCU, those bad decisions have to be turnovers that change the game. It’s what TCU has done all season. Just bend on defense and get a turnover to stop a drive.”
NFC scout: “I don’t know if there’s a bigger moment this season than the Ohio State game on the road. He played really well in that game, and didn’t try to be the guy who’s better than you athletically and he’s going to show you — which is what he does occasionally. He throws a pretty deep ball, and the way Michigan punishes in the run game, it sets up perfectly. He’s playing with a lot of confidence. The only way that’s interrupted is with pressure. No one has consistently done it this season, but Georgia could (in the national title game) if they both advance.”
Matt Hayes is a national college football writer for Saturday Down South. You can hear him daily from 12-3 p.m. on 1010XL in Jacksonville. Follow on Twitter @MattHayesCFB
