If the backup quarterback is the most popular man on campus, somebody’s going to become a lot less popular at a few SEC schools. Well, yes, that also means somebody who had been not very popular will then become the life of the party as QB2, but quarterback competition and change is an inevitable part of every season.

Sure, some of it can be injury-based moves that are forced on a team. But history tells us several SEC teams will change starting QBs of their own free will this season.

Will your team?

Counting on a change

Arkansas: 75%

Chad Morris waited until Monday of game week to decide, or at least announce, that Ben Hicks won the starting job. If Hicks struggles, we know Nick Starkel is a ready, willing, veteran arm who is perfectly capable of nabbing the job. Given the personnel involved and the schedule they will face, you might be more likely to see 3 Razorback starting QBs this year than one.

Auburn: 60%

There are several things in play here — the battle between Bo Nix and Joey Gatewood went pretty far down to the wire. Given that Nix is a true freshman, he’ll have some struggles. Given that Malzahn is not in the most secure spot at Auburn, and that Auburn can’t afford to stumble early in the year, this is a highly charged QB battle that could change week-to-week. Nix probably has the first half against Oregon in the bank … beyond that, it’ll all depend on how he plays.

South Carolina: 40%

Volatile senior passer leads a team with a horrific schedule and an incredibly talented freshman backing him up. It sounds like a formula for a change. Honestly, the chance would be higher, but Jake Bentley is entirely capable of rallying for an All-SEC season. But if Carolina is hanging around 5-7, 6-6 territory, he’ll get the hook.

Change is possible

Vanderbilt: 35%

Derek Mason is playing it close to the vest with Riley Neal vs. Deuce Wallace, but whichever guy gets the call obviously won’t have a ton of separation over the other. That said, we’re talking about a senior and a junior, so there’s not much of a youth movement possible. Some would put this battle at the top of the list, but don’t be surprised if Vandy rides whoever wins the job for the whole season.

Ole Miss: 15%

Matt Corral is the man, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be all season. That said, he doesn’t have a ton of experience, the Rebels look doomed to struggle in the West, and Ole Miss could end up in a situation where a fresh face might give the offense some new life by midseason. Doubtful, but not outside the realm of possibilities.

Mississippi State: 10%

The competition went down to the wire in fall camp, but it’s hardly a surprise that Tommy Stevens, who is much better suited for what Joe Moorhead wants to do, won out over Keytaon Thompson. The odds on a switch would have been higher, but Thompson entered the transfer portal soon after he lost the job, so if Joe Moorhead decides to change things up, who gets the call? Garrett Shrader is a true freshman.

Florida: 10%

Your friendly columnist has been candid about expecting continued improvement from Feleipe Franks, who looks solidly dialed in as the Gators’ QB. Franks was Franks in the opener against Miami: some good, some bad, some truly head-scratching. Halfway through the game, Gators fans were calling for Emory Jones. Dan Mullen stood by Franks, again. That said, the other options have talent, and if Florida stumbles through the first 4 games of the season, Mullen might have his fill of Feleipe. There’s a chance, but not much of one.

Change isn’t coming

LSU: 2%

Given the comfort with Joe Burrow and the expected shot-in-the-passing arm from the addition of Joe Brady, it’s hard to imagine a change. Myles Brennan does have a good upside, but it would take a lot for Burrow to get the hook.

Kentucky: 2%

The Wildcats didn’t let Gunnar Hoak go to Ohio State because they wanted to bench Terry Wilson. Having hobbled through much of last season, Wilson has shown signs of smoothing out some of the wrinkles in his game. Backup Sawyer Smith from Troy could step up if the passing game is particularly shambolic, but he’s probably just a backup.

Missouri: 1%

The only reason there’s any chance is that Kelly Bryant is a senior, Missouri is still apparently out of bowl contention based on their NCAA sanctions, and should the season gets away early, there’s no reason to get an NFL prospect hurt. Still, it’s Bryant, and that schedule is very friendly.

Tennessee: 1%

Jeremy Pruitt has invested in Jarrett Guarantano, and it’s hard to imagine a situation where he’s not the guy. Much like Bryant above, the only issue would be a down season, in which case Pruitt might want to go ahead and get the next QB moving. But that’s highly, highly unlikely.

Texas A&M: 0.1%

Jimbo Fisher put the eggs in Kellen Mond’s basket, and given the steady improvement Mond showed last season, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which he isn’t A&M’s preferred starter.

Georgia: 0.01%

Similarly, it’s Jake Fromm’s team. Anything else that happens would probably come via an emergency of some kind.

Alabama: 0%

It’s hard to imagine a situation in which Tua isn’t the man. A loss to Duke on a 0-for-50 game might be possible in theory but in reality? He’s the starter.