Is this the year we'll see the SEC East finally surpass the SEC West?
Dare I say, this might finally be the year. That is, the year the SEC East finally surpasses the SEC West.
I know, I know, I know.
You’ve heard that before only to watch that premise get thrown away at the hands of a blowout loss in the SEC Championship. That’s the place where the West won 10 of the past 11 years, and go figure that the 1 year in which an East team did win the division (2017 Georgia), it lost to a West team (Alabama) in the College Football Playoff National Championship. A division with 1 conference title since the Tim Tebow era has been, as you already know, woefully short on almost a yearly basis. Only 2 of those 10 losses were by single digits.
Besides the 1 SEC winner from the East, the numbers from 2009-19 are, um, not great for the East against the West:
- 59-107 (.355)
- 2 East teams with winning records vs. West (Georgia at 16-9 and Mizzou at 9-7)
- But 5 of those Mizzou wins came vs. Arkansas
- Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vandy haven’t won 1/3 of West games
- East had winning record vs. West in only 1 of those 11 seasons (a 9-5 mark in 2018)
Yikes.
During that stretch, 3 West programs won multiple SEC Championships (Alabama, Auburn and LSU). Better yet, 3 West programs played in multiple national championships, and all of them took home at least 1 title.
So why then, with that lopsided history in mind, would this be the year that the power shifts?
Well, it’s not as simple as “Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa aren’t there anymore.” Those guys didn’t contribute to the 8 consecutive West wins from 2009-16. They did, however, play at an elite level for teams that were historically dominant each of the past 2 seasons (don’t forget how good Alabama was up until the 2018 title game). It’s not that their teams are expected to fall off the face of the earth. It’s that their teams aren’t expected to be heads and shoulders above the contenders from the East.
Earlier this offseason, I wrote about why this was going to be as intriguing as a preseason discussion about SEC title contenders as any in recent memory. It’s Alabama and LSU from the West, and it’s Florida and Georgia from the East. Sure, there could be some who get cute and put Texas A&M in that discussion (I’m in wait-and-see mode for a program with 1 top-15 finish in the 21st century). But for the most part, those 4 teams were expected to have the vast majority of the preseason buzz to win the SEC in 2020.
It’s too bad we didn’t have an SEC Media Days because we would have gotten some insight as to just how narrow the debate was between those 4 teams.
While I believe the Alabama-LSU disparity would have been greater than the Florida-Georgia disparity, let’s think about this for the Crimson Tide. Alabama just lost its best quarterback ever. It also just lost multiple regular-season games for the first time in 9 years, though I’d argue injuries played a significant part in that. At the very least, Alabama is mortal. The whole “no losses to an East team since 2010” thing is still there, but Alabama missed the conference title game 4 times during that stretch because of an intra-division loss.
This year, Georgia has the best chance to finally end Alabama’s dominance against the East. Could a team loaded with 5-star players in the front 7 with a bunch of production returning from the No. 1 defense in America do something that no East team has done in a decade? I’d certainly say those odds look better now than they have at most points during this run of West dominance.
Speaking of Georgia, the Dawgs are obviously facing plenty of unknowns on the offensive side of the ball with new coordinator Todd Monken and new quarterback Jamie Newman/JT Daniels. But they are obviously coming off their 3rd consecutive New Year’s 6 Bowl berth. Florida, on the other hand, is coming off of its 2nd New Year’s 6 Bowl berth.
When was the last time that the East entered a season with multiple teams riding a streak of consecutive New Year’s 6/BCS Bowl berths? Um, that’s a trick question. This is the 1st time that’s happened.
Let me repeat that because I fear you glossed over that important note. This is the 1st time in the BCS/Playoff era that the East has multiple teams riding streaks of consecutive New Year’s 6/BCS Bowl berths.
To me, that’s more relevant than some preseason ranking. But then again, even the preseason rankings could be on the East’s side this year. Since the West’s dominance began in 2009, there have been 7 instances (2011-17) in which the East had exactly 3 teams ranked in the AP Top 25 to start the year. All signs point to the SEC having at least 3 East teams start in the AP Top 25 (Florida, Georgia and Tennessee) though Kentucky is the possible wild card that could give the East a 4th ranked team. For what it’s worth, Phil Steele has Kentucky at No. 21 in his preseason rankings.
There’s at least a chance that for the first time since the stretch began, the East has 4 top-25 teams to start the year. Even if it doesn’t, Florida and Georgia appear to be locks to start in the top 10. How many times did the East start with multiple top-10 teams during that stretch from 2011-17 when it had 3 ranked teams to start the year? Twice. It was 2012 and 2013.
In other words, it has been at least 7 years since the SEC has been set up with this many potential contenders. Granted, in 2012 the East representative (Georgia) ran into an Alabama team in the midst of its 3rd title in 4 years, and it was a red-zone conversion away from taking down the playing for a national title against Notre Dame. And in 2013, well, the East representative (Mizzou) was overmatched against an Auburn team with 9 lives. It probably wouldn’t have stood much of a chance against Alabama had the Kick-6 not happened, either.
This could be another year like that wild 2013 season. Or it could be different for once.
Perhaps a new decade will bring a changing of the guard. Maybe instead of the Alabama-LSU game or the Iron Bowl essentially deciding the SEC, it’ll be Florida-Georgia or Georgia-Tennessee.
The East finally has 4 coaches who elevated the floors of their respective programs. That would match the West. That’s the key to all of this. That was always the only way the power was ever going to shift. The inability for Florida and Tennessee to find the right coach throughout most of the 2010s was at the root of this. Now, Jeremy Pruitt and Dan Mullen can be at the beginning of a new streak.
And really, you could point to positives in each of the past 3 seasons for the East. In 2017, Georgia won the SEC. In 2018, the East had a winning record vs. the West (9-5). In 2019, the East went 7-7 vs. the West and it finished with multiple top-6 teams for the first time since 2013. If you combined 2018 and 2019, the East actually went 16-12 vs. the West and had just as many top-15 finishers (5).
Of course, this is all about getting the last laugh. Even including that 2017 season with Georgia winning the SEC but falling to Alabama in the title game, it’s been since Tebow’s junior season that the East truly got the last laugh on the West.
Dare I say, the pieces are in place for the chuckles to shift. Finally.
It’ll take more than one year’s worth of wins to really shift things, but 2020 could be a start. I also wonder whether SEC bosses will like the revenue they get from a 10-conference-game season. Lots of potential changes could come — if we play a season this year.
The East is already on top of the West and has been for several years. Though the last couple years the two divisions have been close.
LMAO…
Let’s hear your argument for that
i think the fact that the east is not on top was well presented by the fact that only 2 east teams carry a winning record against the west since 2009. outside of uga’s 16-9 and mizz’s 9-7 record, the other 5 teams are sub-.500. take away uga’s record and it’s even more embarrassing.
Sir, put the crackpipe down!!
Hmm…wolfman, so where are the SEC champs/ NC’s.The west has 7 NC’s since the last East one.
I try to do the comparison based on tiers:
Tier 1: Alabama, LSU vs. Georgia, Florida
These are the real contenders. I think the West has the slight advantage in talent b/c Bama and UGA are pretty even, but I put LSU in front of Florida. That being said, Florida has the most experienced quarterback, so that shrinks the gap a little bit. Overall I think the West has the slight advantage in this tier.
Tier 2: Auburn, A&M vs. Kentucky, UT
I would call this the dark horse tier. I think Kentucky probably has the best defense out of the group, and A&M has the best offense. UT might have the best o line, but the inconsistency at quarterback limits our potential. Overall I think the West is slightly better again in this tier.
Bottom Tier: Ole Miss, MSU, Arkansas vs. USC, Missouri, Vanderbilt
This is the new coach and hot seat coach tier. This group is so difficult to judge b/c there was no offseason. I would say the USC and Missouri have the most defensive talent, while Ole Miss has the most offensive talent. Arkansas and Vanderbilt are both really bad, but I give the slight edge to Arkansas, b/c they are at least trying not to suck. I actually give the slight edge to the East in this tier, b/c with no off season I trust defense over offense.
So overall I think the West is slightly better, but if you played 1-7 against each other most games would be 3 or 7 point games.
Missouri won 7 of their last nine against aTm, did you mean Tier One is for beginers?
The last time you played TAMU was 60 years ago… What does that have to do with next year?
johnny football is still crying, like you.
Missouri is 30-36 against the SEC since joining….
Try your hardest to spin that into a winning record if you like..
Just seen I said sixty. Should have been six..
To make it clear for you these tiers are based on my expectations for next year, not based on overall history.
However, even if it was based on overall history Missouri would still be in the bottom tier because they haven’t ever won an SEC championship.
Outside of last season Missouri put consecutive 50 burgers on your Vols. Not sure that’s been done before against the greatest team in your mind.
With regard to expectations for this season, I agree with putting Mizzou in the bottom tier.
However, I think it’s a little disrespectful to think we’re not historically in the 2nd tier. We’ve broke records, won the division twice, and held our own against SEC blue bloods (Florida and Tennessee).
Just to educate you on SEC history, there are just 2 tiers historically.
Each division has a big three: Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Florida, Georgia, Tennessee.
Then there is everybody else (though you could argue Vanderbilt is in a bottom tier by themselves, at least post WW2.
98 is correct about the historical tiers. The divisions were purposely set up that way. Since the divisions came to be, all six of those teams have won the conference. No other team has. Those tiers are real until they aren’t.
The permanent crossover games make it obvious. UT plays Alabama, UGA plays Auburn, and Florida plays LSU b/c consistently those are the teams that determine the champion.
That was the reasoning, but Tennessee hasn’t held up its end of the bargain in quite some time. The only thing saving their spot is that no other East team has made a serious run. SC did well for a while and then Missouri won the division twice, but neither could maintain that position.
and Missouri beat Tennesse 5 of their 8 all time meetings? You are tier challenged
Again what does that have to do with next year? Missouri lost to the Vols las season…
Some fans cling to yesteryear when that’s all they’ve got. Think Jawja and 1980.
Do you know who was the HC of Missouri? I am telling you he is not that good of hiring assistants and couldn’t recruit top players in the State of Missouri. Offense have been so bad. Drew Lock made Odom looked good. Now Missouri decided to hire an offensive HC and looks like Missouri is moving in the right direction to be more competitive.
Missouri has lost 5 in a row to UK, so I’d say recent results carry more weight.
Kentucky is also in the East, so what’s your point ? But you’re not going to hear Missouri fans taking credit away from Kentucky, Stoops has done a good job.
You have to admit that the no-offense game at Missouri last was stolen by ref who called that ridiculous pass interference call. A call that bad should never happen and in the world of modern gambling, shoe-salesmen, and Kentucky probably being more under the influence than most, it stinks.
Well Wolfe you hold on to that you will need to for the foreseeable future.
don’t like that do you young homer, well Missouri is 5 wins to 4 losses to the Florida Gator everybody over-worships
Again Missouri lost to them last year so what do games form years ago matter for next year?
Dude…no offense, but are you really arguing about how good Missouri is in the SEC? I’m not sure everyone knows Missouri is part of the SEC. I’m not trying to be offensive, just adding some perspective. I personally think Missouri is usually underrated. But you need some skins on the wall here to get that recognition.
Say what you will, Mizzou has 2 more division championships than Mullen does, yet he’s top 5 elite coach…stange yes?
I’m not trying to knock Missouri. Also, Mullen wasn’t going to get those coaching in the SEC West. He did a good job at Miss State, and not every coach can say that. I think we really don’t know yet how good he is, though. The next few years should tell us.
Missouri actually did make it to the SECCG on two different occasions…What was the score on those 2 games?
You are talking about the game where Missouri scored a ton of points against Auburn so there’s no apology needed. And were you at the Missouri v Alabama game the next year? I was. Surely you noticed that one of Missouri top players was thrown out of the game for shoving the Alabama quarterback with his hands on a sack attempt (the ref claimed he used his helmet (fix). My opinion was that Alabama had the better over-all team that year, but anybody who thinks Missouri should commit themselves to some moron’s 3rd tier for that game is … well.. a moron.
Missouri has a losing record in conference… They haven’t won a conference championship since the 60s… Bama blasted Missouri..
National titles are what sets you apart. Alabama, Florida, LSU
Not looking to pump-up bama, but you including UF in the same reference to national titles as bama is absurd.
nat’t titles: bama- 17, tn- 6, lsu- 4, uf- 3, uga- 2, aub- 2.
concerning nat’l titles, you have way more in common with aub and uga than bama….while you also failed to give more deserved credit to tn
your comment is more ridiculous than short-sighted.
Tennessee & Bama like using that fuzzy math when it comes to legitimate NC’s to claim…if you go to the NCAA’s website it states Bama has won 12 NC’s NOT 17 and Tenn. has won 2 NOT 6 and Georgia 1 not 2. So if you count LEGITIMATE NC’s then Bama has 12, LSU 4, Florida 3, Auburn 2, Tenn. 2, & Georgia 1.
Actually you may want to go back to the NCAA website and look again… I take it you’re lookIng at page 123 of the NCAA record book and counting the NCs to come up with your total.. That’s great but you may want to scroll up a few pages since, as stated on that page, those are from 1950 and beyond….
Pthericker, my post involves the last few decades. While you are absolutely right on Alabama and LSU jawja and Tennessee are lacking imo.
Hey BamaTime, this brings up something interesting that I’m sure you know off the top of your head. The number of National Titles the Alabama is credited with is sometimes disputed. Weren’t they claiming like 25 or so at one time? It’s been a long time ago, but I looked it up once and saw that some of those titles were not awarded by the generally acknowledged polls but by some obscure publications, with other teams claiming the actual titles those years. Now, I’m not knocking Bama, who clearly has the most titles ever, but can you lay it out for the rest of us? Thanks!
I agree with these tiers, that’s pretty much how I see it as well
Until UF beats UGA, Bama, or LSU they shouldn’t be in the top tier
They are in the east though. They only lost to UGA in the east last season.
Florida leads LSU both all-time and in the last two to three decades. The last five years the winner has alternated, a pattern that I think will continue this year.
That’s not totally correct Nash. UF leads the all time series because of the spurrier years. Both before and after, LSU leads the series. LSU leads the series since 2000 11-9. So, we lead over the last two decades. LSU won the past decade 7-3. Relish the Spurrier years.
So what do we cancel out the spurrier years? How idiotic
So with Uga the UF series spans 40 so years…or 1990 to 2010…and with LSU its ALL TIME…or the last 3 decades, take your choice LSUSMC…quit trying to be a revisionist, leave that to the resident experts.
I’m guessing yes, you cancel the Spurrier year’s just like y’all did with the 15-5 Dooley era marsh…selective history is the new norm don’t cha know. Lol
I’ve mentioned elsewhere that Florida always seems to have great teams and has always given LSU fits, in the last 40+ years I’ve been watching. They’re exceptionally tough in the Swamp. I’ve always put them around the same level as LSU and Auburn. Until last year, anyway – we’ll have to wait and see if LSU can maintain the level of play from last year.
Idiotic is not being able to read or comprehend. Goofy gator fans. I acknowledge that UF leads the series. I also corrected Nash. I was completely correct in what I said.
LSUMC, you are correct on the last 20 years and the last 10 years. My “two to three decades” statement was inaccurate with respect to the “two” decades portion.
All good Nash. Our teams definitely have a nice rivalry going.
With more conference games being played, this is a good season to gauge the East’s progress. The West will easily have four teams in the top 25 while the East has a shot at that. Should be a fun one if there is one.
Good point, with a 10-game conference only schedule this will be a great season to gauge east vs west.
I agree. SEC fans will enjoy this.
No. I think the gators and LSU may be close with LSu having a slight edge to even as the second best on each side of the conf but after that if the west is better. Bama>UGA, Auburn>UK, TxA&M> Tenn, Ole Miss Mizzou, Arkansas < Vandy. UGA and Bama are pretty close to
Arkansas vs Vandy needs to be added to the schedule this season. I would like to see that game.
Lmao championship game to see who’s the worst team in the SEC
Did you know that the last SEC sporting event played was the Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt men’s basketball game at the SEC Tournament?
I second the notion that these two teams should play in football and kickoff the football season by playing on Friday night, September 25. Then, the loser, facing a possible 0-10, can claim 20 positive cases and cancel their season.
To be clear, Georgia has a ton of talent. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to convert that into championships like Bama has. Until that changes, AL over GA all day long, regardless of talent.
I don’t think so. Bama is loaded this year and if Florida gets added to Bama’s schedule they will be playing both the contenders from the East and I believe they beat them both… The year the East had the better record Florida beat both their cross division opponents and the Vols even upset Auburn…
You never know in CFB but some of this is going to depend on the draw… If UGA adds Arky and MSU that should really help the East’s record and vice versa could happen if the west gets the weaker draws like Vandy/Missouri…
Connor, an article in which you reference changes to the UGA offense and you included neither “Air” nor “Raid”. I’m really proud of you.
Yes Georgia currently is the East power & with Florida playing very well, plus Tennessee finally being in an upward trajectory…the East will be much more competitive…but beating the West=No…not this year. If the Gators continue to play well & the Vols keep upping the ante…in a couple more years, maybe…but not yet.
I agree West over East this year, but the Easy has a chance to change that narrative. It will be interesting to watch.
The 10 game conference will take a lot of uncertainty out of the debate. Pretty much everyone plays everyone with common opponents to compare. The East is making progress with UGA, UF, UK and UT coaches. If the season happens and gets completed, should be plenty of talking points on division strength. Right now, until the East does it on the field, the West is best. The opportunity is there. Let’s play some football.
HAHA!
In a word, no. Now, let me go back and read the article.
Connor, you mentioned no SEC Media Days, which got me to wonder. Did you guys do a virtual Media Days Pre-season pick? You know, the one where y’all historically get it wrong but do it for funsies anyway?
I think there’s really only two top tier contenders, that being Georgia and Alabama.
I would put LSU and Florida right below Georgia and Bama.
Florida is a good team, but can they beat Georgia? LSU lost a ton. I just think there has to be a drop-off on offense and it may even be a big one.
If I was pressed into who is the real 3rd best SEC team, I’m leaning toward Florida over LSU. Florida returns the same QB and the same system. Not much will change on defense. What will LSU look like in 2020?
Auburn may be the 4th – 5th best, but I doubt they’re any better.
But Kentucky and Tennessee may be as good or even better.
Top to bottom I could see where the East may well be able to challenge the West. With the 10 game SEC schedule, we’ll get to see…
How long has it been since GA beat LSU? I bet you really thought y’all had a chance in last year’s game too.
they’re 7-7 since 1990 and 6-4 since 2000 against uga? of those 6 wins since 2000, 3 wins happened to be during national championship years, while a 4th was during a year they played for the nat’l championship (’11). UGA has had the misfortune of playing against lsu during their best seasons the last 20 yrs.
uga is 13-18-1 all-time against lsu. lsu is hardly some juggernaut with respect to uga in their history. check out the internet….it could be your friend.
Just answering the title, no. No it will not be.
Just based on my expectations this season:
Bama over Florida
Georgia over LSU
uT over ATM
Ky over auburn
SC over miss st
Ole miss over mizzou
Ark over vandy
Advantage east
I think A&M is slightly better than our Vols. They have a better QB and more consistency on offense overall. I’d also put Auburn over KY. Just my opinion.
KY over Auburn? I really like Kentucky but no. You’re crazy if you think that’s the end result..
I agree. I mean anything can happen on any given Saturday but AU is a 17.5 point favorite and I don’t see a way for UK to upset AU at home.
We are riding a winning streak at Jordan Hare.
1-1 this century with the win in 2009. Winning steak indeed.
I’d love for Kentucky to win any game except that one.
We’re not going to have the same home field advantage with no fans. I’ll take KY + 17 all day, but I think we’ll win.
Georgia over LSU on paper, maybe. But Georgia seems to have trouble with LSU when they get on the field. It’s been ridiculously easy for LSU to beat Georgia the last few decades, minus one SEC Championship game, if I remember correctly.
‘ridiculously easy’ to beat UGA the last few decades?
they’re 7-7 since 1990 and 6-4 since 2000 against uga? of those 6 wins since 2000, 3 wins happened to be during national championship years, while a 4th was during a year they played for the nat’l championship (’11). UGA has had the misfortune of playing against lsu during their best seasons the last 20 yrs.
your position that there’s some great gap btwn the two is mistaken
Our position that there is a gap between the 2 is correct. Numbers don’t lie. National Championships this century? LSU 3 UGA 0
I’ll keep to the discussion of the two teams since 2000. No doubt that uga hasn’t won a championship since 2000, but they also carry the 3rd highest winning % of all teams since 2000 as well. to lsu’s credit, they actually have the highest win %.
the ultimate goal is of course a championship. UGA has had some tough luck particularly since 2000. ’02, ’07, ’12 and ’17 were seasons that they just came up short.
with the winning % noted, that’s another # that doesn’t lie.
I’m not claiming there’s a great gap, or any gap really. I lived in Georgia for a while and have some friends that are Georgia fans, and my memories are having most of the bragging rights when we all watched the games together. I didn’t bother and I meant no offense. I’ve already acknowledged Georgia has a great program.
“I didn’t bother” to look up the records – sorry.
Bama over GA
LSU over Florida
A&M over Vols
Auburn over KY
SC MSst
Ol Piss over Mizzou
AR Vandy who knows
Real world, advantage west
^^This^^
I’ll take Arky over Vandy.
Not trolling, but why does Georgia always get the benefit of the doubt over LSU? We’ve played them both the past two years and beat them badly each time. Yet Georgia is always ranked above LSU. Like I said not trying to insult Georgia as I am a fan of Kirby Smart.
Aside from LSU’s miraculous season with Burrow last year, UGA is the more talented team on paper and LSU lost a lot to the NFL where UGA brings back an experienced team specifically their stifling defense.
Understandable. I feel though like as a program people see Georgia as ahead of LSU whereas I see them more on equal footing.
lsuotku. I would say over all both programs are equal.
I just think LSU lost too much to win it all this year.
I have felt the same way – LSU lost too much last year. I always think a program will have a drop after losing so many starters. But the talent is there, if not so much experience. If they can stay healthy, who knows what can happen?
I think most people have more faith in UGA’s defense this year than LSU’s offense.
Isn’t Kirby Smart from Baton Rouge?
Yes.
Bold strategy Cotton. Let’s see how that pans out.
Yes.
It won’t happen, because I think LSU, TAMU, and AU will combine for a greater overall level of success than UT and UK and the GA/FL loser. Vandy will be a dumpster fire, USC will probably be ecstatic to make a bowl, Mizzou will have first year worries, etc. Ole Miss has a lot of pieces returning, and Arkansas can only go upwards, I think.
Right now and historically, the West has the edge over the East but it’s getting closer. Alabama, LSU, Auburn and TAMU as a group have an edge over Florida, Georgia, Tennessee and Kentucky.
Alabama was in a class by itself from 2009-2018. They are still the top combination of talent, coaching and resources. And yes, last season was about injuries on defense.
Georgia has been stockpiling a lot of talent but I think LSU is the stronger program. I think LSU’s talent and experience are more evenly distributed across its roster and I like their coaching and culture. I also think that year in and year out, star ratings and 247 composite roster rankings aside, LSU is usually the most athletic team in the conference.
Florida is a hair behind LSU and Georgia in talent but is getting back to the top very fast because of resources and coaching. Oddly, given that both Georgia and LSU have more talent than Florida right now, I think Florida can beat both this year because of an edge in offensive experience generally and quarterback in particular.
Auburn is a very good program capable of making life miserable for any program they play. TAMU has basically spent its way into a position where it can compete at the highest level, but it just hasn’t happened yet. It’s true that they’ve had some tough schedules during Jimbo’s first couple years. Whether they can break out this year will be fun to watch.
Tennessee is indeed an SEC blue blood; one that fell on hard times. They are very definitely on the road back now, but don’t have the depth yet to go four quarters with the top tier teams. They have assembled an excellent coaching staff and are getting close.
Kentucky to me is the most interesting team in the SEC. They have found a way to overcome their structural recruiting disadvantages by recruiting the Rust Belt. their player evaluation and development is outstanding and Mark Stoops is a phenomenal football coach. Perennial 9+ win seasons are a real possibility as long as Stoops is around. If college football were fair, they might have an eventual shot at a championship. Alas, it isn’t.
Ole Miss and South Carolina have the potential to be good. Lane Kiffin just needs a couple years to recruit. I like Will Muschamp, but I fear South Carolina needs a different head coach.
I fully agree that Florida’s offense has the potential to be very good this year. However, if UGA’s defense is as good as predicted, I wonder if it might take an athletic QB like Emory Jones fully living up to the hype to beat UGA (assuming of course UGA’s offense is functional). Smart’s defenses excel at taking away what an offense does best. That can break down though when the QB is a legitimate scramble threat — especially if they can make accurate throws while scrambling (which kills any defense). A Trask lead offense more likey can be made one dimensional than an offense with Jones at 100%. Thoughts?
I’ve thought a lot about this, triggered by a comment thread a week or so ago wherein I said that Kirby’s defenses are designed to not make mistakes, as opposed to attacking to get lots of TFLs and sacks.
It’s tough to beat a defense that is both talented and plays disciplined assignment football. But the offense has the most basic advantage: They know where the play is going. Given this starting advantage, an offense that executes at a high level should be able to beat a good defense; even one that is incrementally more talented.
To answer your question, the Achilles Heel of the Saban/Smart defensive philosophy is time: Assignment football breaks down the longer a play is extended. That’s how Johnny Manziel and Chad Kelly beat Alabama and how Joe Burrow beat Georgia in the 2019 SECCG. You hit on this in your comment. Of course, that advantage is lost with Trask and becomes available with Jones and moving forward, Anthony Richardson.
Trask is the opposite of elusive, but it will be interesting to see if he takes off more in 2020, with Jones having another year of experience in the system and a third scholarship QB on the roster in Richardson.
All this high level philosophy aside, the key factor when Florida had the ball against Georgia in 2019 was that Georgia’s secondary didn’t have to respect the run, which made it easier for them to focus on defending pass plays. Better offensive line play in the running game would make a big difference.
An interesting side note: In looking at the rosters of Florida, Georgia, LSU and Alabama, in each case the defensive roster is more talented on paper than the offensive roster. I have no idea why this might be or what it might mean, as I just noticed the pattern today, but it’s interesting.
i disagree with your comment that uf is a hair behind uga and lsu…particularly uga in terms of talent. during the richt years, he traditionally had a top 10 team in recruiting, while he had sprinkled in a top 5-7 class here and there. it was fools gold.
there’s typically a vast difference btwn the terms of talent that goes into a top 3 team verse a top 10 team. uga has had a top 3 team the last 4 years, while uf has been averaging around a top 10 team…if not worse the last 4 years (current rosters). lost players to the portal aside, if uf were to beat uga in the next couple of yrs…it’d likely be b/c of superior coaching, than better play on the field…barring horrific officiating.
as for the 1st paragraph of your last comment, you are spot on.
Nash, I agree with your take about the basic advantage an offense has over a defense. It will be exciting on many levels to watch Florida’s offense against Georgia’s defense.
P, I’ve got a lot of extra time on my hands these days, so…
Obviously, on paper in terms of 247 composite ratings, Georgia is in Alabama/Ohio State territory in terms of talent. So you can fairly argue that it’s more than “a hair.”
My argument is that once a team with less talent reaches a certain minimum threshold level of talent, the more talented team’s talent advantage matters much less. Bud Elliott of 247 has identified this minimum threshold as roughly 50% of an 85-scholarship roster limit — 43 players — rated 4-star or better. He coined the term “Blue Chip Ratio.”
One aspect of the arbitrary 50% minimum threshold is that assuming a balanced roster, a 50% BCR gives you a 4-star or better two-deep on both sides of the ball, obviously with some positions occupied in actual practice by 3-stars who are better than their rating service high school evaluations suggest.
This is a subject @LeghumperU and I have gone back and forth on, and I am sure we will continue to.
Leghumper argues that there is a huge gap in talent and that a key aspect of this gap is the number of top 100 rated players that make up the roster at Georgia, as opposed to just the higher number of players rated 4-stars or better. The flaw in this argument is that as many as 30-40% of supposed 5-stars and high 4-stars don’t play to their high school evaluations.
247 agrees with Leghumper’s argument, overweighting their aggregate roster talent scores in favor of the top rated guy(s) on the roster. But what if the number one guy on the roster is Byron Cowart at Auburn in 2015? Or Ronald Powell at Florida in 2010? In fact, Florida’s all-time top three rated recruits (Powell, Brock Berlin and Martez Ivey) were not the program difference makers their high school evaluations would have implied.
The posterchild for my argument is Clemson in 2016, which beat Alabama’s 72% BCR roster with a 46% BCR roster, to win the 2016 season national championship. Clemson had the 9th ranked roster in the 247 talent composite in 2016. And the ACC wasn’t the total mess in 2016 that it was last year.
Of course, the one position that really matters more than any other is quarterback. Clemson had Deshaun Watson in 2016. And Joe Burrow is the biggest reason why LSU’s 60% BCR roster beat Georgia’s 69% BCR roster (with more top 100 rated athletes) to win the 2019 season national championship. Curiously, Watson (0.9794) and Burrow (0.9003) were both 4-stars.
In 2020, Florida’s BCR should be 58% and Georgia’s should be 79%.
I don’t think so. It’s a lot closer than recent years though. This year will give a much better idea with more cross divisional games too.
No.
To answer the question “Is this the year we’ll see the SEC East finally surpass the SEC West?” NO
Interesting comments, except for the ones from Mizzou fans, which are not very realistic. Nothing against Mizzou, but two division titles doesn’t mean squat. Ask Georgia.
you’re comparing mizz to uga? that’s about as outlandish as comparing lsu to bama
Offense taken!
“Two division titles doesn’t mean squat”
It depends on what point you’re trying to prove. If you’re trying to say you’re an elite tier 1 program, then you’re right.
On the other hand, if you’re trying to say that your program has been more Successful than half the other teams in your division and that it’s ignorant to keep listing them as a cellar dweller despite the fact that they accomplished something that multiple teams in the division never could despite being in the division for decades longer…. then I think it DOES mean “squat” when you win 2 division titles in a row.
Ask Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, or Vandy if they’d like to win the division this year. In guessing they would see that as a sign of success.
These Mizzou comments are too much lol
Go to Missouri football on wikipedia and look at their record against the SEC West…you may want to sit before reviewing.
I read the article. Obviously you didn’t.
I can tell by the long page of comments that we are seriously in football withdrawal, and we have to wait til well into September? Arrrrrrgggg!
Mizzou has a very respectable over all record against the SEC West with 25 wins and 16 losses. Source Missouri Football Wikipedia.
When your permanent cross division rival is Arkansas, you better bet over .500.
Missouri has a winning record against Ole Miss, Arkansas, and MSU out of the west…
Not that great honestly…
I’m old enough to remember the late 90s and 2000s. It’s cyclical. Don’t hold your breath.
We need our rivalry games in college football:
Florida/Georgia
Alabama/Auburn
FSU/Miami
UCF/Miss Ngyuen’s School of Cosmetology