Welcome to October.

In the college football world, October means that we’re finally in the month in which things start to get real. On Oct. 31, the first College Football Playoff poll will be released. ESPN analysts will spend too much time breaking down too many teams, just as they do every year.

Remember USC last year? The Trojans, a three-loss team, were being discussed as possible back-door invitees to the Playoff. That shouldn’t have ever happened.

It was USC that reminded me of an important rule to remember as we ramp up our Playoff conversations. On Friday night, the Trojans fell to No. 16 Washington State. Naturally, that meant one thing for USC. If it loses another game, it can kiss those Playoff aspirations goodbye.

We can talk about conference supremacy until we’re blue in the face — that’s my early Sunday morning ritual — but it doesn’t matter if there’s that one thing.

You know, two losses.

That’s the eliminator. No two-loss team made it into the Playoff in its three-year history. So until the selection committee actually puts a two-loss team into the field, let’s assume it can’t happen.

Remember that on Oct. 31.

Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

For the SEC, it was a big Saturday for the Playoff picture. Really.

LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt all lost their second games and ended their Playoff chances. Auburn, Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M won must-win games as one-loss teams.

And as for Alabama and Georgia, they’ve got a looooooong way to go to get to two losses.

In other words, the SEC has six teams alive for the Playoff. That number could be cut in half by the time that first poll comes around.

How does that compare to the rest of the conferences? I’m glad you asked.

  • ACC: 9 (Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest)
  • B1G: 7 (Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin)
  • SEC: 6 (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Texas A&M)
  • Big 12: 6 (Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia)
  • Pac-12: 5 (Oregon, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State)

From that perspective, it’s easy to knock the SEC’s depth. Only having six teams alive for the Playoff — enjoy it while it lasts, Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M — doesn’t bode well for the conference strength argument. But on the flip side, no conference has a one-two Playoff punch like Alabama and Georgia.

Because of how dominant they were in September, Alabama and Georgia are going to continue to get the benefit of the doubt if and when the lose one game. Both went out and played a legitimate non-conference foe away from home, and both looked lights out to start conference play.

Alabama and Georgia are playing a double elimination field right now. Auburn, Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M are in win-or-go-home mode as it relates to the Playoff.

Credit: Crystal LoGiudice-USA TODAY Sports

For anyone under the impression that this isn’t the case, I remind you of Penn State. The Lions, of course, rattled off nine straight victories after a 2-2 start. They beat a legitimate top-five team at home (Ohio State), and they took down a legitimate top-10 team (Wisconsin) to claim a conference championship. More than half of those nine wins were by at least 24 points.

Did that matter when it was all said and done? No. Penn State couldn’t make the field over an Ohio State team it beat, even with the conference title. Why? The Lions lost two games. The Buckeyes lost one game.

We must, must, must, must, must (I wrote that five times on purpose) remember Penn State’s situation with every case moving forward.

You know it’s gonna happen. Analysts and fans will waste their breath discussing some two- or even three-loss team that has no shot of making the final four. Maybe two-loss Florida State rattles off a winning streak and turns some heads. Perhaps Auburn picks up a second loss and people still keep circling the Iron Bowl as a possible “make-or-break game” for the Tigers’ Playoff chances.

Someone will try and bring conference supremacy into the equation. They’ll talk about wins against Top-25 teams and non-conference statements.

Spoiler alert: It’s just hot air.

Undefeated or one-loss teams are the only legitimate Playoff contenders. Stick a fork in the two-loss teams. It’s as simple as that.

Don’t trick yourself into thinking otherwise.